Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Boston Bruins:
1. 3m vs Patrice Bergeron The Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - David Pastrnak line is the best in hockey. I'm not sure any other trio is close, honestly.
Since the beginning of 2017-18, they have controlled 58.74% of the shot attempts and 61.11% of the goals at 5v5. This despite being hard-matched against the opposition's best offensive players on home soil and best defensive players on the road.
In effort to try and slow them down, the Flames are expected to reunite the 3M line.
Of 45 lines to log at least 300 minutes together over the last year and change, 3M ranks 1st in Corsi For%, 5th in Corsi Against/60, and top-10 in Expected Goals Against/60.
Completely stopping Boston's top unit is nearly impossible. The 3M line may just be able to slow them down, though.
2. Contrasting styles Boston has been a low-event team in the early going. They're averaging a total (for + against) of 102.48 shot attempts and 3.90 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5.
For perspective, Calgary's games have averaged 113.97 shot attempts and 5.3 expected goals per 60 at 5v5.
Both teams are above 50% in the two categories, meaning they've generally out-played the opposition, but Calgary has done so at a higher pace.
It'll be interesting to see if the Flames can kick the game into a higher gear again tonight. I think a more up-tempo game would benefit them.
3. Attacking on the PK Last season the Bruins were a little leaky defensively while on the man advantage. Only Colorado and New York (Islanders) gave up more short-handed goals while Pittsburgh and Vancouver were the lone teams to give up chances at a higher rate.
It's early, but the trend has continued this season as the Bruins rank 31st in chances and high-danger chances against on the PP.
We know the Flames have some guys who like to create on the PK – Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik come to mind – so don't be surprised if they are able to generate a chance or two tonight.
4. Young Sam Bennettâ„¢ He is trending up in a big way right now. Over the last couple games, he has a goal, an assist, a +12 chance differential, and a +21 shot attempt differential at 5v5. He has really helped jumpstart James Neal's game (Neal has a 54 CF% with Bennett, 44CF% without him). They should have a good opportunity to build on their success tonight playing mostly against a Bruins bottom-6 that has posted some pretty ugly underlying numbers thus far.
5. Rasmus Andersson He has recorded more shot attempts and posted a higher Corsi For% in each game since being recalled. His ice time has slowly, and steadily, increased as a result. If this trend continues, it'll be tough to take him out of the lineup when Travis Hamonic returns.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary (via @Fan960Steinberg)
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Austin Czarnik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Rasmus Andersson Juuso Valimaki - Michael Stone
Mike Smith
Boston (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - David Pastrnak Joakim Nordstrom - David Krejci - Jake DeBrusk Ryan Donato - David Backes - Anders Bjork Chris Wagner - Sean Kuraly - Noel Acciari
Zdeno Chara - Charlie McAvoy Matt Grzelcyk - Kevan Miller John Moore - Brandon Carlo
Tuukka Rask
Puck drop is just after 9:30 eastern and can be seen on SN360 and NBCSN.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey. Recent posts: On Bennett's improved play, drawing penalties, and Brodie's PK usage