The Oilers face the Blues tonight as Edmonton looks to turn a fortuitous shootout into some sustained positivity. Edmonton is on the road, and their record away from Rogers Place suggests that’s a good thing. The Oilers have been able to pick up points in 12 of 17 road games this season.
The club has gone back to the well with Lucic and Eberle as McDavid’s wingers. The rumour is that McDavid has been ill for a little while and it certainly looks like it by his current scoring. He’s been quiet for a number of games but won the game for the Oil with an unreal shootout goal.
You see it often with elite players that there’s this idea that it’s difficult to play with them. We heard it a lot with Crosby, that it isn’t easy to play with those guys. To some degree I bet that’s true, but in McDavid’s case it hasn’t been true at all. We have seen several players succeed with McDavid. The problem, as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, is that sometimes the players who perform well with these superstars aren’t the people we want.
In terms of points per 60 minutes, Jonathan Willis shows here that McDavid and his left winger have produced the most when he’s been on a line with Maroon. Just after him it has been with Pouliot. Lucic produces so much less 5v5 with McDavid that it’s comical. The problem is that Chiarelli and company want that combination to work. Pouliot is getting the cold shoulder from the coaching staff and Maroon isn’t sexy enough, I guess (but I still love ya, Pat).
In terms of right wingers, McDavid’s most common right winger has been Eberle by a mile. 97 with Eberle has produced 2.42 points per 60 and Eberle has produced 2.23 Points per 60 minutes. Still, the next highest right wing with McDavid based on TOI has been Yakupov. McDavid with Yak produced 3.51 Points per 60 and Yak produced 2.63 Points per 60 minutes.
So the Oilers have had no problem finding players who fit with McDavid. The real problem the team faces is accepting that those players aren’t the ones they wanted to fit. The team moved on from Yakupov and he’s struggled to find a place in St Louis. He’s 2nd on the Blues in Points per 60 minutes and 3rd in Shot Attempt percentage, but he’s also been a healthy scratch many nights. Right now he’s on the top line with Schwartz and Steen however his minutes are held quite low. In Edmonton the Oilers weren’t willing to use him like that in order to maximize his output. I don’t think the team was willing to believe that Yakupov was a good fit with McDavid.
With Maroon I think it’s more so that the team just desperately wants McDavid-Lucic to work because they spent so much money on Lucic and then traded Hall. It’s an optics thing. The reality is that if Lucic-Draisaitl works better and Maroon-McDavid is sweet music then I doubt anyone will complain about optics. Just ice the best combinations possible and win games. Oiler fans aren’t asking for more than that.
Edmonton is going to have to be willing to accept the results of their experiements when it comes to McDavid's linemates. If someone belongs there and good things happen then it doesnt matter if it's someone we expect to perform or not.
LINEUP
Pouliot is in. Benning, Beck, and Puljujarvi are out.
Lucic McDavid Eberle Pouliot RNH Caggiula Maroon Draisaitl Pitlick Hendricks Letestu Kassian
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Russell Davidson Gryba
Talbot Gustavsson
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Tarasenkshow. The St Louis Blues have one of the best talents in all of hockey playing for them. Vladimir Tarasenko is 2nd in NHL scoring, just 2 points behind Connor McDavid, with 37 points. He’s had 14 points in 9 games this December to lead the league since the month began. Again, McDavid has just 8 points in 9 games. Last year he had 3 points in 3 games against the Oil, but he was held without a point in Edmonton’s first matchup vs the Blues this year. He is among the Blues leaders not just in points but a positive driver in every major fancy stats category. He’s a stud. The Oilers will have their hands full against him. If the team tries to match Russell and Sekera against his line I’m worried about what unimpeded entry into the Oiler zone will allow Tarasenko to do.
2) Hutton. The Blues aren’t getting a lot of help from their goaltending and all indications are that the Oilers are getting the weaker of their two goaltenders tonight. Carter Hutton has a career save percentage of just .908 in 85 games, but this season he’s posting a lowly .889 in 9 games. Carter Hutton is 50/51 (.887) in 5v5 save percentage among netminders who have played at least 300 minutes. He’s 1 of only 2 goalies who are below .900 in that metric. It’s ugly and the Oilers should be licking their chops, so to speak. The club needs to get after the Blues early and often tonight. Edmonton is 6th in 5v5 shots for per 60 minutes. This is a matchup that favors Edmonton heavily.
3) Pouliot Back. Benoit Pouliot has been inserted back into the lineup and it’s about time. The Oiler winger has been left for dead by a lot of fans and media who are always happy when a fancy stats favorite struggles. The problem is that when he plays well he provides the 5v5 offense equivalent of a 50 point forward. That’s a sizable contribution for $4 million per year. This year he is NOT providing that offense. He needs to figure it out quickly. Edmonton is trying to make the playoffs. We should be past the stage of this rebuild where pieces are being sent out for nothing. The Oilers need Pouliot playing the way he has in the past. Here’s the thing, even though he isn’t scoring personally very well, the Oilers are better with Pouliot in terms of on-ice Goals For percentage. Without an inflated PDO he’s sitting at a 52.4% GF% so far. Good things generally happen with Pouliot on the ice.
Puck drops tonight at 6PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy