Here are five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Philadelphia Flyers:
1. A stiff matchup Calgary’s top line has not had the same flare as it did a season ago. They’ve looked off by the eye, their finishing has dried up, and the underlying numbers – be it shot, chance, or expected goal generation – are down by fairly significant margins across the board. They really, really, really, need to get going.
Unfortunately, CGY1 is running into one of the toughest draws you can find in the league. They’re going to get hard matched against Sean Couturier. To date, 10 Flyers forwards have logged at least 150 minutes of ice at 5v5. Couturier ranks 1st among them in both shot and scoring chance suppression. Despite playing elite competition on a nightly basis, he’s still getting better defensive results than the guys who don’t.
The top line is going to have its hands full in this one. We’ll see if they’re up for the challenge.
2. Starting on time The Flames have not held a lead since the 3rd period of their 5-2 win over the Devils, which was seven games ago. They have allowed the first goal in eight(!!) consecutive games. I know I am beating a dead horse with this but it is much harder to generate high-end opportunities when teams are sitting on leads and stuffing the danger zones. It’s very hard to find success while always fighting an uphill battle.
Generally speaking, I think the importance of scoring 1st in any given game is overblown. With that said, it is most certainly an issue when you *never* score 1st. Calgary needs something – anything – to go their way. Getting on the board once or twice early would be really beneficial to helping them settle in, rather than giving the ‘here we go again’ feeling that’s hovered around for weeks.
3. Milan Lucic on PP1 Milan Lucic has zero (0) goals on the season. Zero. He hasn’t created many opportunities, either, as he ranks last among regular Flames forwards in attempts/60 and 2nd last in chances/60. His reward for this dangerous and stellar offensive play is a spot on PP1. I understand it hasn’t been clicking of late but I’m not sure dropping Elias Lindholm for Lucic is the answer, especially against a PK unit that ranks 1st in suppressing shots and chances while shorthanded.
4. A quality start The Flames have scored three goals in five games. No perspective needs to be added to understand how pathetic that is. Clearly, the offense is not exactly firing on all cylinders right now. Those struggles only add to the importance of getting quality goaltending. While there’s always the chance the offense could have a much-needed breakout performance, the Flyers are a fairly low-event 5v5 team and can really kill penalties. This doesn’t seem like the game Calgary will put up a massive number so they could really use a quality start from David Rittich/Cam Talbot.
5. Sophomore slump Carter Hart mostly played fantastic as a rookie. Though this year’s Flyers team is actually better than last year’s, his strong play hasn’t translated over. Of the 39 goaltenders with 400+ minutes played at 5v5, Hart ranks 34th in save percentage and 36th in high-danger save percentage. He’s struggling to find his way so if the Flames can find a way to generate any sort of volume, they should have a real shot at snapping this skid.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube Zac Rinaldo - Mark Jankowski - Tobias Rieder
Mark Giordano - Rasmus Andersson Noah Hanifin - Michael Stone Oliver Kylington - Brandon Davidson
David Rittich/Cam Talbot
Philadelphia (via DailyFaceoff.com) Oskar Lindblom - Sean Couturier - Joel Farabee Claude Giroux - Morgan Frost - Travis Konecny James van Riemsdyk - Kevin Hayes - Jakub Voracek Andy Andreoff - Michael Raffl - Tyler Pitlick
Ivan Provorov - Matt Niskanen Shayne Gostisbehere - Justin Braun Travis Sanheim - Philippe Myers
Carter Hart
Puck drop is just after 1:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SNW and NBCSP.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com Recent posts: