Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Vegas Golden Knights:
1. Weathering the storm Vegas is back on home ice following a three-game road trip, they're desperate for points, and they were downright embarrassed by Calgary earlier this week. They'll no doubt be looking to return the favor tonight so I expect them to come out with a lot more energy and do a better job of testing the goaltender, especially now that they've finally had some rest (they were idle two of the last three nights). The Flames will need to show up ready to play because the Golden Knights are going to have their foot on the gas from the word go. If the Flames come out flat, they'll pay the price.
2. A more daunting task Vegas' top line is very good again this year. They're controlling 55.11% of the shot attempts and 56.54% of the chances at 5v5. The Flames may have quieted them on home soil but it'll be much more difficult on the road without the likes of Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk and Mark Giordano consistently going head-to-head against them.
An easier matchup for an elite line that is due for a change of fortune – they own an unsustainably low on-ice shooting percentage of 5.05 – is a scary proposition.
3. Limited power plays The Golden Knights rank 3rd in penalties taken/60 and 5th in penalties drawn/60. In other words, refs don't make much of an impact in their games. At least they haven't been so far.
We should lead to a lot of 5v5 play, which bodes well for entertainment value. Calgary and Vegas play fast, neither team is in a back-to-back, and both crack the top-7 in Corsi For% and Expected Goals For%.
4. Offense from the defense Prior to the Winnipeg game, I noted each side featured numerous defenders who generate a lot of shots. The same can be said in this one.
Travis Hamonic (7th), Mark Giordano (12th), Shea Theodore (31st), Colin Miller (38th), Brad Hunt (47th) and Juuso Valimaki (60th) all sit inside the top-60 in shot attempts/60.
Expect the defense to be quite involved offensively once again.
5. 2M+Bennett The Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett trio has controlled 59% of the attempts, 62% of the chances, and 66% of the goals and, on the road, they'll (mostly) get to avoid matchups against top lines. Vegas' bottom-9 is pretty underwhelming so this is a sneaky good spot for CGY2 to do some damage.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett Dillon Dube - Mark Jankowski - James Neal Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Michael Frolik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Vegas (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Jonathan Marchessault - William Karlsson - Reilly Smith Max Pacioretty - Cody Eakin - Alex Tuch Tomas Nosek - Ryan Carpenter - Tomas Hyka Will Carrier - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Ryan Reaves
Shea Thedore - Nate Schmidt Colin Miller - Brayden McNabb Deryk Engelland - Nick Holden
Marc-Andre Fleury
Puck drop is just after 6:00 eastern and can be seen on SN360, SNW, and ATTSN-RN.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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