Here are five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Ottawa Senators:
1. Similar trajectories The Devils started the season as poorly as possible. They were routinely out-played. When they did manage to get the better of the shots and chances, they still found ways to lose. It was bad. A lot has changed, though. The Devils – a team you were embarrassed to root for a few weeks ago – are 5-3-2 over the last 10 games and the improved results are no fluke. They’re playing much better, having won the expected goals battle (at 5v5) in six of the last eight outings. They’ve posted a 54.13 xGF% during that stretch, good for 6th best in the NHL.
Ottawa is in a similar situation – slowly starting to right the ship after the worst start imaginable. The Senators have won five of their last eight games and, like the Devils, performed dramatically better in the process. They own a 55.26 xGF% in that period, which slots them 5th.
While the Devils have enjoyed success by generating few chances and giving up even fewer, the Senators have gotten hot allowing plenty of looks but simply generating more.
You certainly wouldn’t circle this one on the calendar but, with the way each side has improved in recent weeks, we could actually be in for a competitive, well-played game.
2. Beast of the East Brady Tkachuk is an absolute monster around the net. At just 20 years of age, he already has an uncanny ability to generate opportunities on a remarkably consistent basis. He has recorded 60 scoring chances (33 Grade A) in just over 230 minutes of ice at 5v5 this season. That equates to 15.65 chances/60, which is good for *checks notes* 1st in the NHL. He’s also tops in efficiency with regards to Grade A looks.
The Senators don’t have much beyond Tkachuk – Tyler Ennis ranks 2nd on the team with 31 chances (14 Grade A) – so the Devils best pay special attention and make sure they’re shadowing Tkachuk around the net at all times. If they’re not assertive boxing out, or get caught sleeping down low, Tkachuk will make them pay.
3. Target the top pairing Thomas Chabot has quickly developed into one of the best defensemen in the league. There’s a reason no player averages more time on ice per game than anyone. With that said, Chabot’s 5v5 impact has been significantly hampered by his partner – long-time possession anchor Nikita Zaitsev.
Opponents have out-attempted the Senators 347-256 (57.55 CF%) and out-chanced them 165-111 (59.78 SCF%) when that duo is on the ice.
In ~50 minutes without Zaitsev, Chabot owns a ridiculous 60.19 CF% and 68.43(!) xGF%. Those numbers would surely drop over a larger period of time, however, I think they paint a pretty clear picture that Chabot is being weighed down by his partner.
If Chabot is on the ice with Zaitsev, John Hynes should not be at all concerned about throwing Taylor Hall and the big line out there. In fact, that’s *exactly* what he should be looking to do.
4. Next level Nico Nico Hischier didn’t start the season all that well. I don’t think he, or his biggest supporters (like me!), would suggest otherwise. Nico is really coming around, though.
He has five points, 18 shots on goal, and a pair of drawn penalties in eight games since returning to the lineup. His on-ice numbers are even more encouraging as Nico has posted a 55.36 CF% and 63.50 xGF%, both of which lead the team.
He’s starting to look like his usual self, which is bad news for opposing teams.
5. Goaltending aplenty Mackenzie Blackwood is 5-1-2 over his last eight starts and has posted a .918 save percentage during that stretch, which is well above league average. He’s looking like the guy we saw in the 2nd half of last season – good news for a Devils team desperate for a save on a remotely consistent basis.
Meanwhile Blackwood’s expected counterpart, Anders Nilsson, owns a remarkable .921 save percentage while playing behind a Sens team that concedes shots and chances in bunches.
This *could* turn into a goaltending duel, which is not what you’d expect to see given the names involved.
Note: in the event Craig Anderson starts, the Devils will have a pretty clear goaltending edge. That has not been a common theme in recent years.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey Taylor Hall - Jack Hughes - Kyle Palmieri Pavel Zacha - Nico Hischier - Jesper Bratt Nikita Gusev - Travis Zajac - Blake Coleman Miles Wood - Kevin Rooney - Wayne Simmonds
Will Butcher - P.K. Subban Andy Greene - Damon Severson Mirco Mueller - Matt Tennyson
Mackenzie Blackwood
Ottawa
Brady Tkachuk - J.G. Pageau - Anthony Duclair Nick Paul - Colin White - Connor Brown Vladislav Namestnikov - J.C. Beaudin - Bobby Ryan Filip Chlapik - Chris Tierney - Tyler Ennis
Thomas Chabot - Nikita Zaitsev Erik Brannstrom - Ron Hainsey Mark Borowiecki - Dylan DeMelo
Anders Nilsson/Craig Anderson
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. and can be seen on MSG, TVAS, and SN360.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com Recent Posts Blackwood holds the fort in win over Canucks