The Calgary Flames play the fifth of seven consecutive home games tonight when they host the Vancouver Canucks, one of the biggest early-season surprises.
The Canucks come into this game with a solid 7-5-2 record and actually sit ahead of the Flames in the standings based on goal differential.
Whether the Canucks can continue to have success going forward remains to be seen but the numbers suggest their surprising start has been no fluke.
At 5v5, the Canucks rank 12th in Corsi For%, 8th in Expected Goals For%, and have been the league's top shot suppression team allowing a hair more than 50 attempts per 60 minutes. They also have a plus-10 penalty differential at 5v5, giving them a leg up in the special teams battle as well.
While the Canucks won't be the pushover they've been in recent years, this is a very winnable game as a) the Flames have played their best hockey of late; b) they're on home ice and; c) the Canucks are playing in a back-to-back and their third game in four nights overall.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Michael Ferland Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Jaromir Jagr Kris Versteeg - Curtis Lazar - Troy Brouwer
Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton T.J. Brodie - Michael Stone Brett Kulak - Matt Bartkowski
Mike Smith
Vancouver (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Sven Baertschi - Bo Horvat - Brock Boeser Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Jake Virtanen Thomas Vanek - Alex Burmistrov - Sam Gagner Markus Granlund - Brandon Sutter - Derek Dorsett
Ben Hutton - Chris Tanev Michael Del Zotto - Erik Gudbranson Derrick Pouliot - Alex Biega
Anders Nilsson
Five things to watch:
1) Boeser, Horvat, and Baertschi rank 1-2-3 on the team in scoring and Boeser has generated 5v5 chances at a higher clip than all but Jeff Skinner, Connor McDavid, and Rick Nash. The 3M line has locked down some really good players of late and they'll be asked to do so again tonight.
2) Ferland's first seven games: eight chances and zero points at 5v5.
Ferland's last six games: 19 chances and four points (3G, 1A) at 5v5.
He has really rebounded from a slow start.
3) Despite nothing to show for it, Bennett is another guy who has taken his game up a notch of late. He generated just eight 5v5 chances in his first 11 games but has registered nine in his last three. It's only a matter of time before he gets rewarded.
4) The Del Zotto - Gudbranson pairing has been getting eaten alive this season. In 128 minutes together at 5v5, the Canucks are controlling an abysmal 39% of the shot attempts and 34.6%(!!!) of the chances. Glen Gulutzan should use last change to his advantage and get the top line out against that pairing every chance he gets. It's a huge mismatch.
5) Smith has allowed four or more goals twice this season. The first time it happened, he bounced back and posted a .931 save percentage against this same Vancouver team. The Flames will be looking for a similar response in this one.
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and SNP.