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In terms of points, the California trip couldn’t have gone better. 6 of 6. Another step forward, a win requiring fewer than 4 goals for the first time this season. The team doesn’t play again until Thursday as McDavid and co come to town. That leads to the money question. In a flat (ish) cap world (truly a fake cap world) does Nylander’s deal put perspective on where GMs need to invest heavily?
I say “fake cap… because of escrow. Yes, the current escrow has shut down debt still built into it. However, before the shutdown and since the 50/50 CBA, there’s not yet been a zero dollar escrow year. Since the 19/20 season, there has been a lock at 20% per the MOU. It was supposed to drop to 6% after three or four years but that conversation is gone. So, if you signed a 5 million dollar deal after shutdown, your payout is 4 million but cap hit, agent fees and some taxes are still based on that 5 million dollar hit. 5 years like that and you’ve played one season for free (20% x 5 years). Now there are 2 factors making things more difficult. Raises are in line that now contend with higher cost of living, paid in American $ when the Canadian dollar was at $1.39 to $1 American. So teams north of the border have to raise the difference. I still don’t think the cap is going to do what anyone is hoping. The 5 to 7 has been reduced to 4.7 “if projections hold… which will likely go sub 3 million and the players have to vote. Some are tired of Escrow.
So, where does a team spend? Toronto will have roughly 46 million invested in 4 forwards. Matthew is at 13.25, Tavares at 11 for one more year, Marner at 10.9 for another year, and now Nylander at 11.5 for 8 years. Projected cap for next year on Cap Friendly is at 87.5 (currently 83.5) so roughly 40 million to be split between around 16-18 players (unless bonuses are paid out).
The debate is on. Get a defenseman or a goalie. In reality, when McDavid and Matthews signed their deals the talking heads felt certain the cap would be near 100m by now. Matthews is the best negotiator of the bunch. Will likely get one more huge deal, and I have nothing but respect for his team knowing his value and going for it. It’s easy to look back, but when Carolina offered Hamilton for Nylander during “the holdout… Toronto wanted Pesce and said no. Hamilton could have made a big difference. Tavares is getting nearer to 35 and at some point will move on (likely a coach or GM, great hockey mind).
In a perfect world, it would seem like you have a top paid center, a top paid first pairing Dman, and a highly paid goalie. Tier down and get cup chasing veterans who can take a league minimum and some ELC standouts. That sounds much easier than is executed, but Toronto hasn’t had the post season success they paid for and at some point on of those highly paid forwards needed to have been a defenseman. Opinion of course, please chime in.
The last part is personally painful. 97.1 the ticket has filed for bankruptcy. Matt Shepard used to run the morning show with “Silent Doug… who I still communicate with (rarely) and Eric Chase. Matt and Doug loved hockey, Matt and Eric loved baseball. For fans of those sports there was a local show. Eventually more and more time was given to national broadcasts with less local programming. The last radio station I visited was in 2016 and even by then about 1/3 of the staff was gone. The hosts were their own producers and would do half a show and replay it for the last half of the broadcast. Now, A.I. can formulate playlists and even DJ drops (see Regular Show who did a cartoon about this years ago).
The loss of true on the ground and invested broadcasters is painful. Journalists with a lifetime of elite level access and coverage have had to drastically shift their income model. Most of you saw Leaf’s Lunch get cancelled and over 1k jobs eliminated from TSN over the summer. Toronto is the crown jewel of the league and if their peripheral coverage is suffering it signals poorly for others.
But, fans are showing up in Detroit. The team has the ability to excite the fan base again. A streamlined way of watching that doesn’t require VPN knowledge would be welcome. MLB did non blackout streaming on their app over the summer. At some point the balance of squeezing the base and getting new views has to turn toward lifting up the fans. This sport has so much exciting new content and players that can do borderline impossible things on the ice. It’s worth finding a way to reignite the passion and bring in new generations.