Quick update: in the world of the bizarre, McIlrath will be in the lineup against Toronto after clearing waivers. There was a short entry about that https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=102860 IF there is any relevance to the move other than Green not being ready, this could preclude some sort of trade as the acquiring team could send DM to the minors now.
Just for reference, in review of the pregame thoughts from the October 12th meeting, on paper not much has changed with the challenge Detroit will face tonight. You can read that post here
The main takeaway was that Detroit would essentially need to over-perform in the areas of possession and get 4+ goals past Toronto’s net minder. Nothing has really changed about that particular outlook. The changes in Toronto do not take away from the number of offensive threats, and in fact seems to have energized the team.
The special teams numbers aren’t spectacular for either group. Toronto’s PP is at 18.4% (20th) and the PK is at 73.8% (25th) for a special teams total of 92.2%. Detroit has a PP at 13.6%(28th) and a PK at 73.5% (27th) for a total of 87.1%. Neither team seems to be in a position to want to be short handed a lot. The special teams battle would favor Toronto, and Detroit needs to be smart. The Maple Leafs have a lot of emotion right now. Players will engage and it could be one of those nights where the ref catches the retaliation and not the instigating minor.
Detroit is still a league worst 3.73 on goals against, with Toronto not much ahead at 3.32 (25th). However, the Leafs are scoring 3.2 (11th) and the Wings only 2.27(31s). The “run and gun… game heavily favors the Leafs.
A couple of posts ago, the “serenity prayer… from 12 step meetings was sighted as sound principle for watching these contests. While you can tell where a team has been by looking at stats, there are intangibles that can muddy the water of where they are heading. So let’s break it down
Accept what you cannot change: While Detroit is on task for what most pundits predicted (bottom 3), Toronto is a far cry from where they expect to be. At this time last year, Toronto and Tampa where the “class of the east…. Right now, Boston and Washington seem to be the mightier foes. Toronto’s weak start seemed to stem from injuries and low morale. Detroit is a rebuilding team. Neither team can fix the past failings of special teams or defense.
Change what you can: Toronto took a big swing and replaced Mike Babcock. Sheldon Keefe is, simply, Kyle Dubas’s guy. They are synchronized in this: Dubas builds aa team, Keefe gets the most out of the design. It’s a bit of a shift from the “bring in a winning coach and do what he tells you… dynamic. Babcock and Lamarillo shared a school of thought on how to build and coach. Dubas is more of the OK Corral. A lot of shots will be fired, so he loads up more shooters. Babcock was a bit more janitorial in his 3rd and 4th line usage. “Just don’t make a mess out there and keep your own zone clean…. Protect what your scorers do as an extension of your goal tender. For Detroit, Fabbri is a new addition and Zadina is getting a shot as well. There is a different look, though no proven track record.
Understand the difference: Teams get one coaching change per season. This is the attempt to make all the pieces and parts come together. Toronto is up against the ceiling and would have to make a major structural change to bring in new talent. This is Dubas’s chance to prove that he built the team the right way to succeed in the new era. As for Detroit, it would be a stretch to see another player like Fabbri enter the lineup with such an immediate impact. So far Yzerman has brought in Biega, Perlini and Fabbri to help better equip the team during this young season. There are only so many moves like that available. Detroit may well have all the tools they’re going to get, shy of Grand Rapids callups.
Unless there is a significant breakdown, Toronto should be favored, possibly heavily favored, in this contest. A boost in confidence gave Detroit a 3 game win streak. On a team as loaded as Toronto it could give a much longer stretch. This will be the longest chance Keefe has had to work with the team before a game. Expect to have a better understanding of Toronto’s direction after tonight.
Thank you so much for everyone who stops by to read and comment. Keep it coming! You can read my last post game report from 10/12 and compare what you see tonight. Wings vs Leafs Oct 12
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