The Calgary Flames are going to lose a useful player or two this summer due to the incoming cap crunch. It's just reality.
As it stands, they have a little under $14.5 million to sign Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane, Garnet Hathaway, and two NHL goaltenders.
Tkachuk and David Rittich, if re-signed, will likely eat ~$12 million of that money. Add in Bennett, who has arbitration rights, Mangiapane, and a backup goalie (I think Hathaway is expendable) and you're going millions over the budget.
Michael Frolik seems the most likely candidate to be traded – he isn't going to be re-signed prior to next summer, I don't think, and Bill Peters isn't a massive fan – but more tweaking may be necessary. It certainly is if the Flames want to make any meaningful additions.
That's why I could see Bennett being dealt. I wouldn't bet on it – I know the Flames like him – but it seems within the realm of possibility.
Evolving-Hockey projects he'll get ~$2.9 million on his next contract. I don't think that's out of the question at all, especially given his arb rights. I also don't think it makes sense for the Flames to pay him that kind of money.
Yes, he is physical. Yes, he works hard. Yes, he'll chip in offensively once in a while. He is a nice piece to have around and I'm not going to argue otherwise. The problem? You can make a convincing case he is the 4th-best left winger on the roster.
Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk are on a different planet, and it's certainly worth noting Mangiapane averaged more goals, points, and shots on goal per 60 minutes than Bennett did at 5v5.
He posted much better on-ice numbers, too. Mangiapane owned a 54.85 CF%, 59.91 xGF%, and a +11 goal differential across 434 minutes.
Compare that to Bennett, who owned a 53.52 CF%, 53.06 xGF%, and -3 goal differential across 804 minutes (Mark Jankowski and James Neal were the only other regular forwards with negative differentials at 5v5).
Mangiapane also bested Bennett in Goals Above Replacement (5.8 to 2), according to Evolving-Hockey.
This isn't me knocking Bennett. He is a useful player, and it's not like his numbers were awful. Mangiapane's were better, though, and the Flames are in a tight situation financially.
It just doesn't make sense to pay as much as $3 million per for Bennett if he's going to be your 4th line left winger, and the numbers suggest he probably should be.
I'm by no means suggesting the Flames should force him out the door for anything they can get. Only that if a solid offer comes up from another team willing to gamble on Bennett, which is not remotely out of the question, they might be smart to pull the trigger.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com Recent posts: