Coaching needs to be discussed with Jets
There are many topics and issues to discuss with the Winnipeg Jets, but the one that seems to be a bit taboo or hard for some to do is discuss the coaching. In particular, how do we measure the impact of coaching and coaching decisions as they relate to the Jets results?
There is no question that the role and tutelage of Paul Maurice is present within the results of the team, as well that of his assistant coaches. They have an impact and that’s what some fans want questioned, do the negatives of that impact outweigh the positives?
Here’s some data on the Jets: (all stats 5vs5 unless noted from Corsic hockey)
CA/60 the amount of shot attempts the team faces per 60 minutes of play: 7th best CF/60 the amount of shot attempts the team takes per 60 minutes of play: 3rd worst CSh% the percentage of times a shot attempt is a goal: 13th best
FA/60 the amount of un-blocked shot attempts the team faces per 60 minutes of play: 5th best FF/60 the amount of un-blcoked shot attempts the team takes per 60 minutes of play: Dead last FSh% the percentage of times an un-blocked shot attempt is a goal: 12th best
PDO 99.17 10th worst Sh% 7.98% 9th best Save% 91.19% 5th worst
So what does this tell us?
One could assume that when playing at even strength, which the Jets do the least most often in the NHL because of penalties, they do a reasonably successful job of keeping the puck from getting to the net. In fact it’s top 10 in the league.
When they are shooting the puck they are getting goals too but to put it simply they are not doing enough of it, shooting that is. There have been a number of great perspectives around shots and shot quality and work done around it but in my opinion the best view comes from Garret Hohl when he said, “Shot quantity inevitably leads to shot quality….
Here’s your top 10 teams by CF/60
Toronto Nashville Pittsburgh Montreal Boston San Jose Philadelphia Columbus LA Washington
Here’s the top ten in GF/60
Pittsburgh NYR Montreal Toronto Nashville Columbus Minnesota NYI Edmonton Philadelphia
Here’s the top 10 by shooting %
NYR Minnesota Montreal NYI Pittsburgh Columbus Toronto Nashiville Winnipeg Philadelphia
You can see there is a lot of overlap between the three but a few outliers, namely Winnipeg. One could float a theory that the Jets are only as good as they are because they’ve simply been shooting the puck really, really, really well. Take away the wildly inconsistent goaltending and this team could either be top ten in the league in points or bottom three depending on if it was good or bad consistent goaltending.
The question that some want to know is this: what is Paul Maurice doing that is stifling offence and does he even realize it? The team has a -11 goal differential at 5vs5 and is the third worse in the league for GA/60.
I would offer that the problem stems from zone control. Which problem? Oh the one that is holding back the shot generation and possession metrics for the team, or the offence. Now I have not looked at micro-stats for this, I’m going on eye-test of myself and others who have notice similar concerning habits.
The Jets bottom pairing have an abysmal CA/60 and that’s in any incarnation of Chiarot, Postma and Stuart. They simply cannot gain possession of the puck and move it out with any effectiveness that helps get the puck down the ice. The interesting thing is that the save percentage for these three players is pretty good relative to the rest of the team nor is there GA/60. So what is the issue?
This gets hard to hammer down but I’d say it goes back to shot volume again in that because there is so many allowed, and that they can’t get the puck out of their own end, the goalies end up seeing more quality scoring chances. What makes me think this is happening is that none of these players are near the top in SCA/60 (scoring chance against), so are they all that bad?
Where the most vocal complaints have been towards Maurice is player usage and deployment. Does he have the right players doing the right things at the right times? The Big Show guys from TSN 1290 threw out an interesting thought when looking at Toronto vs Winnipeg in the Laine vs Mathews debate. They looked at where Mathews was playing vs Laine and the defensive aspects of the game and how he has been playing on the bottom two lines as opposed to Laine on the top two. The premise being that Mathews and his rookie mates are learning the defensive side of the game as they grow and instilling the good habits now. I think it’s a valid point. Do the Jets need to consider that approach too?
Not if you believe that Laine should be on the first unit PP and more. Babcock’s methods would be counter intuitive to what most fans believe should be done here in Winnipeg.
So again we come back to Maurice and the coaches and the tactics. Something is not working but it’s more than simply offence generation, it’s individual talent and performance. The goaltending, which many thought would be on the upswing this year, is not swinging up. Does that compound the situation or is it part of it? Are the line formations simply things that don’t work well from a offensive standpoint or, is there a problem with tactics?
The one thing that’s been consistent for years with the Jets is that they wilt under pressure. Put pressure on a puck carrier in any situation and the team literally freezes. Add in a very passive style of defence, particularly on the penalty kill, and there is a whole other issue to worry about.
The general malaise for this team is more than not being able to generate offence at 5vs5 so where does one start, where should Maurice start to fix all of these issues?
I would start with penalties, deal with one aspect of the game that is controllable and that means no more lazy and dumb penalties. Give your team a chance to play more even strength hockey and roll more players through rather than draining a select few. Fix the penalty kill and power play units in terms of system employed because learning good habits should start in areas of pressure.
If you want to work on offence do it while having a man advantage, a bit more room and starting in the offensive zone. Try the adjustment there and build into regular 5vs5 play particularly zone transitions and entries For the penalty kill the same thing applies as too often this team ‘hopes’ for the goalie to be the best player on the ice during the penalty kill without doing much to support it. The unit and tactics cannot get much worse so why not start the changes on it?
The coaching(es) needs to put the the changes into effect and see them through or not. This is not a last chance moment for Maurice or his assistants (although some would like to see it that way) as they are here by design with the way this team has been built. They are however responsible for addressing the challenges and finding a solution, short and long term ones. This needs to happen well, now. As mentioned above the changes can start in three key areas as well. For the GM he should want to see how Maurice and his charges can redirect the direction of this team and what progress towards positive change can be made. Some of it might be finite based on the roster, some players simply cannot or will not improve beyond what they are thus keeping results static. That being said the challenges are evident and the fix though is not always apparent and often gets confused with being counter action the the problem. That’s the ‘how’ part that the coach is relied upon to produce.
After 32 games there’s enough of sample and results to point to where the fixes need to come. The ‘who’ part is the coach and in this case so is the ‘how’. If Maurice is unsuccessful with this task the bigger question becomes if he should be the one to keep attempting the fix if he has shown he doesn’t know how.