The Canes are becoming one of the most consistent teams at home in the NHL. Currently, they have registered points in 11 straight home games (10-0-1). The win over the Blackhawks Friday night was probably the most significant win of the season—currently, the Canes are five points behind Philadelphia and have three games in hand. I imagine that the win will have the Canes fired up to play the Bolts tonight.
So why was the win over the Hawks so important for the Canes: The Canes had a 2-1 lead heading into the third in both the Penguins game and against the Hawks. Throughout the season, the Canes have struggled to close out games in the third period—they are last in the NHL with their “win percentage when leading after the second period,… and are posting a 9-2-5 record (563 win %.) Given this, it is obvious that closing out a top Western Conference team is a significant win.
To put those seven third period losses into perspective, only nine other teams have blown three or more leads going into the third period. Even worse, only two teams (Canes-7 and Maple Leafs-6) have more than four losses when heading into the third with the lead. The main difference between Toronto and Carolina is that the Maple Leafs are 13-1-5 (.684 win %.)
Looking at the Pittsburgh loss, one could say one mental mistake is what truly cost the Canes a winnable game—Tennyson made an extraordinarily bad choice to pinch on a three-on-two Penguin rush at the blue-line and the play turned into a three-on-one—as a result, Hagelin hammered home a one-timer on Ward’s with four minutes remaining. The worst part about the goal was that as the play unfolded you knew what was about to happen.
Beyond the one mental mistake, another area that the Canes really struggled with was playing with urgency at the beginning of the periods. Similarly to issues with playing with the lead in the third, this problem has been one that has been haunting the Canes most of the season—Pittsburgh scored in the first two minutes of both the second and third period.
The other issue that appears to be hurting the Canes is with their back-checking and picking up forwards in the slot. Both Crosby and Kunitz found one-timers in ideal scoring chances where they were left unattended too. It isn’t to say that both goals weren’t nice, more to say that the Canes appeared to have a lapses in coverage and could improve. This first goal for the Hawks was due to the Canes losing track of a player open for a one-timer.
Another disappointing factor in the Penguins game was the fact that the Canes actually played exceptionally well. They caught Pittsburgh with three defensemen out (Matta, Letang and Dumoulin) and did a solid job of creating chances—the Canes had a total of 90 shot attempts (29 blocked, 15 missed, 46 SOG). Throughout a majority of the game it appeared the Canes set the pace and established a consistent fore-check.
Given the litany of reasons the loss to the Penguins was disappointing, one can quickly see why beating the Hawks was huge. Despite surrendering a goal six minutes into the game, the Canes rebounded well and scored twice less than three minutes later. It was the type of response the Canes needed in front of one of the biggest crowds at the PNC Arena this year.
I really liked the first goal the Canes scored by Elias Lindholm—it came off of a play very similar to a play by Teravainen that Stempniak buried against the Penguins. Similar to Tervainen, Staal drove the goal-line hard, got a shot low and the rebound was put away. It is good to see the Canes using their speed on the rush to challenge defenders and find some “gritty… goals.
Many of the recent games the Canes have played have consistent themes: solid fore-check, playing with speed, good goaltending and controlling the pace. The win over the Hawks wasn’t really much different and eventually the turnovers won the game for the Canes. Most of the game, I thought the Canes did very well applying puck pressure in the offensive and neutral zone. The fore-check and turnovers directly resulted in the third goal the Canes scored.
Not surprisingly, Ward played another strong game and had many one-timer saves that were critical. He made some very timely saves throughout the third to preserve the lead, especially in the final five minutes. I grow less concerned with the play of Ward each game, however, the d-zone coverage is a problem occasionally still.
In the five goals surrendered in the past two games, four have come off of one-timers in high-scoring areas. The Canes are struggling to keep tabs on players that jump into the play, particularly in the high-slot area. The fifth goal was a freak re-direction off of a crashing Hawks forward—there’s not much defensively or goaltending wise to critique.
As the Canes head down to Tampa for back-to-back games in consecutive nights, I don’t think the keys change much. Throughout most of December, the Canes have played good hockey—they had solid positioning, speed and puck possession. The focus needs to be on:
• Strong starts/finishes to periods • Limit the Bolts speed and transition— don’t pinch too much. • Focus on picking up guys in the slot and minimizing one-time opportunities • Continue to get to the net and find rebounds • Establish a strong fore-check and apply good puck pressure
The Bolts have some players who are gifted with their one-timers—Kucherov and Hedmon are just two that come to mind immediately. Looking at the five main keys, I don’t think I can stress enough the need to not lose guys who step into the play in the slot—if the Canes don’t do this well, it could be a long evening for them.
Tonight is another huge game for the Canes—Tampa Bay currently sits two points out of third place in the Atlantic. These are the types of games that teams who make the playoffs have to win. Furthermore, the stretch of their next 11 games will be challenging as many are in play-off position—eight of the eleven currently are in playoff position: Columbus three times, St. Louis, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Boston and Washington.
The Bolts are struggling with some injuries issues—Stamkos, Callahan, Paquette, Namestnikov, Point and Bishop are all hurt. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bolts look with forwards down. Finally, the injury bug hit the Canes again as Lindholm left the game and didn’t return—he was reported to have an upper-body injury and there hasn’t been much more news. This is bad news as two of the hottest Canes players as of late have been Faulk and Lindholm—both of which are now injured.
Puck drop is at 7:00 (EST) and is on SUN and FSCR. Go Canes!