Follow me on twitter Follow @stlgoalie The Blues started out their California trip the same way they ended their last homestand, with a lackluster performance, getting beat handily and with Jake Allen giving up some questionable goals and getting pulled (more on that later). The loss makes the Blues 1-3 in their last 4 games and 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Interestingly, both lone wins during those stretches are against the Dallas Stars. The Blues recent uninspired play has them in 3rd place in the division, trailing the Wild by 10 points. More importantly they are only 3 points away from being out of the playoffs.
Tonight the Blues will head to the Shark Tank where the Sharks have been strong this season, going 14-5-1 though they have lost 2 of their last 3. A win for the Sharks will propel them to a tie for 1st in the Pacific with a game in hand over the Ducks.
The Sharks allow the 4th fewest goals per game mostly due to allowing the 3rd fewest shots per game. They have the 8th highest point percentage in the league.
As you would expect Brent Burns keys the Sharks offense, leading the league in points for a defenseman with 17 goals and 44 points. He has 7 more goals than any other defenseman. Joe Pavelski is having another strong season with 15 goals and 39 points in 42 games. Joe Thornton has only scored 2 goals so far this season thanks to his sub 5% shooting percentage.
Thornton has been a historic Blues killer with 14 goals and 54 points in 48 games. Burns and Pavelski have been good too, posting 9 and 8 goals and 22 and 20 points, respectively. Thomas Hertl has 7 points in only 10 games, Kevin Labanc scored in his only game and Joonas Donskoi has 3 points in only 4 games though Donskoi is out tonight.
Martin Jones has been good against the Blues in spite of his record. He only has won 2 of 5 games but has a 91.5% save percentage and a 2.24 goals against average.
The Blues struggles have hit their penalty kill which has fallen to 6th best at 84.7%. Their power play remains strong sitting at 7th in the league at 22.1%. Of course the Blues road save percentage remains the NHL’s worst and has now fallen below 87%.
After coach Ken Hitchcock debated starting Hutton on Thursday, perhaps Allen’s performance or perhaps tomorrow’s game against the Ducks caused Hitchcock to give the start tonight to Hutton. Actually, the statistics suggest Hutton should start tonight. He has a 96.5% save percentage and a 1.30 goals against average versus the Sharks but only 86.9% and 3.69 versus the Ducks. Comparatively, Allen has a 95.7% and 1.12 versus the Ducks and only 91.7% and 2.41 versus the Sharks.
Alex Pietrangelo has enjoyed success against the Sharks, posting 16 points in 20 games. Kevin Shattenkirk isn’t far behind with 14 points in 19 games. Jaden Schwartz and Alexander Steen lead the Blues forwards against the Sharks with 11 points in 10 games and 17 points in 20 games, respectively. Paul Stastny isn’t far behind with 26 points in 34 games.
Vladimir Tarasenko hasn’t had a shot on goal in the last two games and for the third time in seven games. He had registered at least one shot in every game before the last seven.
The lines blender is on again but they should start like this: Schwartz – Stastny – Steen Yakupov – Lehtera - Tarasenko (looking forward to seeing this one) Fabbri – Berglund – Perron Jaskin – Brodziak – Reaves Pietrangelo - Parayko Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk Edmundson – Bortuzzo Hutton
Blues goaltending woes – part 1 As I mentioned in my prior blog, the Blues have gotten poor goaltending this season. All signs point to it from the analytics done by @DTMAboutHeart, to the metrics done by Corsica Hockey, to simple save statistics you can get on NHL.com, or to the naked eye. According to traditional statistics, the Blues rank dead last in save percentage at 89.2% but let’s look at Corisca Hockey for a minute. They show Jake Allen (all 39 goalies with 1,000 minutes played this year) as 35th in Goals Saved Above Average, 34th in Adjusted Fenwick Save Percentage, and 26th in High Danger Save Percentage even though he is only 19th in High Danger shots faced.
When you dig further, our perception of a lot of soft goals is confirmed as Corsica has Allen 32nd in Medium Danger Save Percentage and 38th in Low Danger Save Percentage. Only Mike Condon has a worse save percentage on Low Danger shots.
According to Corsica, the team itself has been good at limiting shots on the rush as Allen is 29th in the number of shots face on the Rush. They are also good at keeping shots on the perimeter as Allen is 33rd in average shot distance. It isn’t like they are giving up a disproportionate number of high danger chances as they are 19th in that with Allen in net. The team is giving up a high number of Medium Danger chances as Allen is 4th in those chances against.
For what it’s worth, Allen is owning his performance with quotes like “I need to get back to a point where I’m deserving to play… and “pucks are getting behind me and I’ve got to find a way to stop that sooner than later…. He wants to “find a way to be the backbone of this team in here and give the boys a chance…. Unfortunately, his play has mirrored the rest of the team which hasn’t given the fans much of a chance to watch consistent wins lately.
Sure Allen has been pulled in three of his past five starts and only stopped 77.5% of the shots he has faced in those games but the team has been bad in many of those games too. Look at Corsica’s game analysis. Their expected goals for analytic has the Kings winning by a half a goal, the Bruins winning by 2/3 of a goal, and the Hurricanes winning by over ¾ of a goal. In the Kings game the Blues were outshot 23-8 in the 1st two periods. The Bruins were up 27-11 after two periods. The Hurricanes were only up 19 to 16. The Blues haven’t exactly been playing inspired hockey from the goaltender out. In another blog we’ll look at the timing of goals.
No room for Jammer’s nuggets today.
It’s a great day for hockey.
Fellow Hockeybuzz bloggers Nashville Predator's Paul McCann, Winnipeg Jet's Peter Tessier and Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace have generously agreed to a friendly charity wager. We were hoping to do the whole division but don't have it fully represented yet. The blogger whose team finishes the highest the standings at the end of the year gets to pick a charity to whom the others donate in their name.