"So quiet"
That was the gist of almost every text I got from NHL people yesterday.
And yet here we are... All the signs point to what should be an insane week.
* The Draft and UFA Day are three games in four nights.. * A flat cap has the whole hockey world in panic mode. * Teams need to move players to get under the cap * There are a legit 15 NHL goalies who HAVE to move.
So why has there been one interesting trade so far?
"It's a new business model," one long time NHL source texted.
I talked to more people yesterday than I have talked to in over a year and its true. The new paradigm has everyone both gun shy and confused all at once. These questions were posed by sources over and over again..
*What does anything mean right now?
*Will the players have to take a 50% cut to even play this year if the fans can't return soon enough?
*Will the NHL do something to relieve the cap pressure? (ex: a franchise player that gets wiped from the cap for three years)
*Should I trade for a player when I don't think his current team can even afford to qualify him...That just helps the other team out and he could be available for nothing.
*Given the pandemic, will players want to take discounts to avoid having move their family?
There are many realities hitting the players and the teams right now and they are all frankly scary..
So who knows when this starts to go crazy? Here is my guess at how this all goes down...
1. Today we will see a few more minor trades to get into position for the draft. Perhaps we will see one or two big moves...we may see Taylor Hall's rights dealt...Although so far the Coyotes are having a hard time getting teams to engage yet. Jason Spezza will sign in Toronto. Deals like that will get made
2. Tommorow. I think will see some really good trades on draft day and draft night. Especially from pick 5-15 we could see teams move picks to get some more immediate, cost certain health.
3. Wednesday will hold all the incredible excitement of a second day at the NHL draft...Gms will talk like crazy and figure out their contingency plans. Not many deals will happen.
4. Thursday. Teams will pitch their own UFAs one last time. I do see Hall signing somewhere after his rights are dealt. (calgary?). ALOT of UFAs and RFAs will sign Thursday at home when they start to realize how tight money is and how easy it is to not move to a new city during a pandemic. OEL likley dealt this day...That takes him out of the picture for Pietrangelo to be bidded on...(if his reights aren't traded at the draft.)
5. Friday. UFA Day. Things will be crazy leading up to noon and then we will see the VERY big players signed...but far less than are normally signed on Patrik Laine could be dealt by now.
6. Saturday and Sunday...some signings will trickle in, but we will all ask "where are all the trades, and how the hell does Tampa get under the cap?
7. Beyond the weekend...We are in for at least a month of trades and UFA signings at a very slow pace as teams figure out stuff and try to get under the cap...and where and when we will actually be playing again...
So yes..buckle up for sure...(but make sure its a really comfortable seatbelt because this offseason could be a cross country trip in Long Island Expressway like traffic...)
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— Michael Augello (@MikeInBuffalo) August 2, 2017