After the first weekend of free agency, what is the direction NY is taking? (rangers free agency 2020)

rangers free agency 2020

After the first weekend of free agency, what is the direction NY is taking?

By Jan Levine

Oct 13, 2020 • 12:42 pm

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My expectations were low coming into free agency, yet the Rangers somehow managed to go below those expectations. I figured New York, as I wrote in my blog, would be filling in around the edges, bringing in fourth-line players, as well as those for Hartford and possible depth blueliners. But seeing who was signed as compared to who was available and also signed at times for less makes you question the evaluation process, especially on the blue liner. In addition, maybe Lindy Ruff wasn't the full problem with the defense.

The above paragraph was written Friday right before the Sabbath and holiday started. Imagine how high the level of my ire and dissatisfaction rose seeing that Jesper Fast signed for three years at $2 mil per with Hurricanes when I got my newspaper Sunday. New York must have a plan and that strategy is most certainly the long approach, but right now, it is difficult to see and/or appreciate what this will be. In addition, cap constraints are most certainly a concern, but at that price - presuming Fast would have re-signed with the Blueshirts at that figure - hard not to be in arms following the first three days of free agency. I hope to be proven wrong.

I know within the blogging industry it's a mixed bag on seeing what the Rangers have done. Pretty much to a person, we all question the Jack Johnson signing, especially as to the possible impact to the constitution of the defense. On Quickie, the dispirite view is that while it stinks to see him go, where would we have played and room needs to be created for the kids. Plus, the cap limitations made re-signing him difficult. In addition, the prevailing view is that the team didn't make any major mistakes in free agency, locking up players long-term or at ridiculous dollars. But please tell me where this team is better, notwithstanding the drafting of Alexis Lafreniere, than they were last season. A few excerpts from a few of those columns are here:

Vince Mercogliano:

The worst thing the Rangers could have done is make a move that jeopardizes the rebuild — something that hastily chases immediate results while losing sight of the big-picture focus, which is developing a core that can consistently compete for Stanley Cups

The Rangers needed to avoid disrupting their flexibility in the coming seasons, both financially and in terms of roster construction. It's why they almost surely won't offer long-term contracts to Tony DeAngelo or Ryan Strome, and why they're taking a similarly conservative approach in the unrestricted free agency market.

Forever Blueshirts:

Fast’s new three year Canes deal is just $150,000 more than his last deal with the Blueshirts. In truth, this was not so much about money but opportunity. Simply put, the Rangers weren’t interested in a multi-year deal and wanted to give Kaapo Kakko a spot in the top six next season. Also, they needed to open up minutes for Vitali Kravtsov and Julien Gauthier on the right side.

The Rangers are on the upswing and need to make that next step into a contender. By the time, Kakko, Fox, Miller, and Lafreniere are ready to dominate, Fast will be gone. Plus he would be blocking Kravtsov and Gauthier. It was time to move on and Fast will do well in a bottom six role in Carolina.

At the end of the day, this wasn’t about not wanting Fast. This was about financial constraints and making room for highly touted prospects. It was more about tomorrow, then today. It was the right move.

Mercogliano on the cap constraints. This is a valid concern but one that with some maneuvering might have been resolvable. The major unknowns are the salaries for Ryan Strome and Anthony DeAngelo, which could have been the contributing factor in not re-signing Fast

According to the collective bargaining agreement, teams are allowed a "performance bonus cushion" of 7.5% of the salary cap total. For an $81.5 million cap, that works out to $6.1125 million in bonuses that won't affect the cap. Anything they pay in performance bonuses over that amount counts against their salary-cap figure.

Based on the performance-bonus eligible players we expect to be on the opening night roster, the Rangers will exceed $6.1125 million. Here's the list, with maximum bonuses listed, according to CapFriendly.

Lafrenière: $2.85 million Igor Shesterkin: $2.85 million Kaapo Kakko: $2.65 million Adam Fox: $850,000 Filip Chytil: $350,000 Julien Gauthier: $300,000 Ryan Lindgren: $212,500 Total: $10.0625 million

Subtract $6.1125 million from that total, which equals $3.95 million, and add that to the Rangers’ cap charge.

Basically, they need to conserve at least $4 million in cap space for bonuses. Then factor in roughly $13 million total in buyout penalties — the biggest being over $6 million for Kevin Shattenkirk (my note, how ironic is it for him to get a three-year deal, which takes him two years beyond the original four-year deal he signed with the Blueshirts, at $3.9 million AAV — and you essentially have $17 million you can’t spend.

What’s $81.5 million minus $17 million? A lean $64.5 million to build your roster.

Now, there are other entry-level players who could make the roster. Here’s that list, with performance bonuses listed:

Morgan Barron: $850,000 Vitali Kravtsov: $850,000 Justin Richards: $500,000 K’Andre Miller: $300,000 Tarmo Reunanen: $132,500

Realistically, it’s hard to imagine more than one or two of those guys making the roster out of camp — either Barron or Kravtsov, and maybe one of the defensemen. But to play it safe, let’s anticipate we'll eventually see Barron, Kravtsov and either Miller or Reunanen. So, let’s add $2 million to account for them.

Now we’re down to $62.5 million to build your 2021 roster. Yikes.

Penciled into the lineup right now, barring a trade, are: Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Pavel Buchnevich Artemi Panarin-Ryan Strome-Kappo Kakko Alexis Lafreniere-Filip Chytil-Julien Gauthier/Vitali Kravtsov Brendan Lemieux-Morgan Barron/Brett Howden/Phil Di Guiseppe

These lines presume several things: 1) Kakko is ready to play on the second line. 2) Gauthier will be the third line winger, though that is far from certain. He is miscast on the fourth line and has offensive potential, but that placement is far from set in stone. 3) Which Lemiuex are you getting? The one who draws penalties and showed flashes when acquired from Winnipeg or the one who takes stupid penalties, some reputation driven more than actual, and who struggled mightliy last season? 4) Do you believe the pumping up Rangers; brass gave Howden after last year's play-in round? Did he really play that well or was that performance just in contrast to his weak output during the regular season? 5) Is Barron ready to jump from Cornell into a checking line center role? 6) Whither PDG, who re-signed a two-way deal as an RFA with 700K if he sticks on the parent club?

Most important, what is the identity of your fourth line? Is it a North-South trio, as desired by coach David Quinn? Quinn talked about the need to be tougher, to be able to have a line turn over a game if need be, to generate energy. Lemiuex can do that, if he can stay on the ice. Do we think Howden can do that? How is Fast not an improvement over what they have?

Plus, I understand the need to create space for the kids. But are you granting them roster spots with no competition? Is Kevin Ronney, signed in free agency, true competition? Is Colin Blackwell, especially when those two, like Kevin Kinkaid, were added for AHL depth and to be exposed in the expansion draft. Rooney has the best shot to break camp, but Fast at $2 million after making $1.85 mil AAV is a bargain driven by the flat cap. Who is Fast blocking? He is probably a third or fourth line. If Gauthier is ready, put him on the third line and use Fast on the fourth and as a penalty killer. Is Patrick Khodorenko or Justin Richards or Austin Rueschhoff true options for this year or next?

Vitali Kravtsov is not a fourth liner, The hope is he will be top-nine and maybe top-six. If he can fill that role, he and Kakko are batting for line placement, not Fast. In addition, what happens if neither are ready, especially in the case of Kakko, to take that next step forward. If Lafreniere takes time to adapt then what? I understand they are building for sustained success and the probable goal is to be ready to really contend in 2021-22 or 22-23, but what if Igor is lights out between the pipes, where have you supported him? Is this team any way, shape or form better than the one that ended last season.

Henrik Lundqvist joined a divisional rival. Even if he is average, he still helps the Caps, but he did need to go to allow Igor/Georgiev the ability to share the net. Marc Staal was moved to clear cap room for the bonuses. Who was added to replace him, Jack Johnson, and that's an upgrade how? More on that below. Fast removes a heart and soul player, one that Quinn sang the praises of, remarking how big his loss was when he was knocked out 63 seconds into the first game against Carolina. Now, he has joined the team that dominated you in the play-in round. Heck, even NJ improved, signing Corey Crawford to pair with Mackenzie Blackwood and trading for Andreas Johnsson and Ryan Murray.

If injuries strike, are you able to withstand that? New York's lack of depth was apparent in the play-in round, Hope is being placed on the kids, but don't you need a back up plan? Because as noted above, not all will be ready for prime time. If the plan is to take your possible lumps this year, building for down the road, that's fine. But I still think Fast could have been brought back, especially after seeing Matias Janmark get one-year at $2.25 million from Chicago. Three years for Fast wasn't excessive, and if you think that a spot is needed for a kid in year 2 or 3 and comfortable with someone filling that role, moving that salary shouldn't be that difficult.

I know some have equated Fast with Jack Johnson, in terms of alignment between the two. While not directly linked, the consternation is over cash management and allocation.

I had suggested several names in my free agent primer blog. None of which have come to fruition for the Blueshirts. Jon Merrill opted to play for his hometown team, the Red Wings for $925k. Carter Verhaeghe signed for $1 million with the Panthers, joined later by Alexander Wennberg for $2.25 million on a one year deal. Derek Grant went back to Anaheim for three years at $1.5 mil per, a bit rich for my blood. solid names are still available. The good news is that the term on most of who New York is at most two-years, which allows the players to be exposed in the expansion draft.

Here are the two blue line signings Jack Johnson - $1.15 mil - his history with JD in Columbus might have been a factor, but a bigger impact was Johnson playing for Jacques Martin in Pittsburgh, as Martin advocated for this signing. However, one would have thought and hoped this would have been a precluding factor to his signing, making me question Martin's evaluation skills. In addition, as Vince Mercogliano pointed out, Johnson is known as a great locker room guy. With the exits of Henrik Lundqvist and Marc Staal, the Rangers wanted to bring in leadership and experience to add to their young roster.

The problem is Johnson is horrific. His advanced metrics show that few - in fact maybe no other defensemen, depending on what metric you use - were as bad as he was last year. In addition, he was the third-worst defenseman in the league in both WAR (-1.7) and GAR (-9.5), according to Evolving Hockey. I get chemistry is a factor and maybe that's why he is brought in. But as said above and seen below, you can add chemistry with talent, especially with better options available.

Per Mercogliano, the plan is for Johnson to compete with Brendan Smith and Libor Hà¡jek for a third-pair role. K'Andre Miller and Tarmo Reunanen could also be factors, but it's most likely they will begin the season with AHL Hartford. My question is why couldn't you have found and didn't find a better option for that competition? Plus if you don't move ADA to the left side with Trouba, is Johnson the plan for that top group? If you move ADA, what is your third pair? Relying on Miller, who needs seasoning, Reunanen, the same, and Hajek, who hasn't shown much to date and/or Johnson is not the ideal by any stretch of the imagination. Maybe acquiring Vince Dunn from St. Louis will be the answer.

Anthony Bitetto - two year deal, $700K per. Likely a seventh or eighth defenseman, maybe AHL bound. But as seen below, not very good and better low-cost options were available. In addition, hopefully if he is used, he isn't taken time away from a better, younger option.

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