DJ Smith was named the Senators head coach on Friday, and we will have to wait until the season starts until we can truly evaluate him as a coach in the NHL. In the meantime, I thought it would be good to talk about what he should be expected to do this season in Ottawa. Nobody expects him to turn them into a playoff team all of a sudden, but there needs to be some progression in certain areas.
So here are five things that I’m hoping he can deliver on in the 2019-20 season in order to be a successful coach:
1. Cater to Thomas Chabot’s needs
I hate comparing Chabot to Erik Karlsson too much, but there are some similarities. Chabot is already the straw that stirs the drink for this team and he will continue to be for a long time. He is the one that can get offensive plays started from the backend, and in order for him and the team to improve, Smith needs to make sure that the system he implements puts Chabot in a situation where he can thrive.
Karlsson was luckily able to thrive under several coaches in Ottawa as even they recognized that they had to put him in the middle of their gameplan. Chabot obviously isn’t on Karlsson’s level just yet, but he is on a similar level of importance simply because there aren’t many other options on the Senators. If Smith wants to put a particular offensive or defensive strategy in place, the first question should be: does this suit Chabot’s game well enough? If not, then he should go back to the drawing board. Coaches should recognize that they have to get the most out of their best players, and I’m confident that Smith will know what to do here.
2. Leave the veterans in low-leverage situations
There aren’t that many true veterans in Ottawa anyway, but this is still something that Guy Boucher could not succeed at due to his stubbornness. Players such as Bobby Ryan, Mikkel Boedker, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Borowiecki, Cody Ceci, and Dylan DeMelo could classify as “veterans… (plus any of Magnus Paajarvi, Oscar Lindberg, and Brian Gibbons might re-sign), and the only player out of that group who should be in the top half of the lineup is DeMelo.
He isn’t a top-pairing defenseman on many teams, but I do think he is a capable top-four defenseman at this stage. However, while the other veterans do bring some things to the table (for example, Pageau is still a fine player but only as a third-line centre), they have very limited upside. Just by default, Ryan and Ceci will most likely end up in higher positions because of the dearth of options on the right side for forward and defense, but even they shouldn’t be given too much leeway. But if Smith is trying to decide who he should put in the top-six or into the lineup, the answer should always be a young player who is trying to prove himself. It would be a different story if these veterans were actually good players, but most of them are limited in their capabilities, so if they are high in the lineup, that doesn’t necessarily mean Ottawa will be winning more. I really don’t want to see whatever the equivalent of Tom Pyatt on the top line is.
3. Give top prospects long enough leashes
Along the same lines of #2, this one is probably the most important for me. The only thing that matters this season is that their young players take big steps forward and become established NHL players. They can’t be getting fourth line minutes and having a short leash. For example, someone such as Logan Brown might be on the fourth line and have zero points in his first ten games, but he needs to be given a longer leash to succeed because a) that wouldn’t be nearly enough ice-time per game, and b) there is no downside to letting a top prospect go through some struggles and come out on the other side an even better player.
Christian Wolanin is someone who was a victim of this last year, as he was sent down to the AHL at the beginning of the year essentially because of one or two poor pre-season games, and he never really earned Boucher’s full trust in the NHL despite clearly being the second best defenseman. These young players need opportunities to figure out what they need to improve on, and moving them down in the lineup or taking them out of it completely is not good for their psyche.
It’s a different situation if a battle for a spot in the lineup is between two similar prospects, because in that case, whoever is showing more production at the time deserves to have more ice-time. Still though, the point remains that if a young player struggles for a handful of games while getting top-six minutes for the first time, I really hope Smith doesn’t pull the plug if we know that this certain player is capable of being productive in that spot. Don’t give up on talent so soon.
4. Fix the defensive structure
If this sounds vague, that’s because it is. I have no idea what Smith intends to bring to the Senators in terms of defensive strategy, but he has to at least try something different than what Boucher was doing in Ottawa. Yes, the personnel was terrible and even the wizard himself, Barry Trotz, would not have been able to fix their defense. But at the same time, there are definitely changes that can be made in order to limit shots against.
The Senators were last in the league in corsi against per 60, goals against per 60 and were in the bottom-five for scoring chances against per 60, expected goals against per 60, and high-danger scoring chances against per 60. To put it simply, they were horrendous at giving up shots and goals. Having Erik Brannstrom for at least a good chunk of the season should help in that regard, although the rest of the defense corps might be pretty much the same. It’s hard to say exactly what Smith should do here, but I’m assuming that he thinks he has an answer as to what will help in this area. The Senators haven’t had a good defensive team in a long time, so I’m curious to see if Smith will be any different than previous coaches.
5. Keep the emphasis on skill
It has been mentioned that Smith loves Roman Polak and players who bring “snarl… to the lineup. He sees a role for players such as Polak, meaning he will probably love Mark Borowiecki. He also apparently loves highly skilled players at the top of the lineup though, so it’s not as if he is some neanderthal head coach. I just hope that he keeps the overall emphasis on skill rather than “snarl.… It’s fine to have a few physical and gritty players throughout the lineup (as long as they have other positive aspects of their game), but you still need more talent than other teams in order to win.
Players who have more skill should be kept in the top half of the lineup, and those such as Borowiecki and (Zack) Smith should be kept in the lower half, because those with snarl are not going to help you win nearly as many games. Smith needs to recognize which skilled players are going to be of great use every game in the season and which gritty players will be relied on less often. Ottawa needs lots more skill anyway, so that is something that will have to slowly be added over time.