Mark Spitz once said "records are meant to be broken," and throughout sports we see that to be the case. In hockey, we see players constantly reaching new heights, outperforming their own previous career bests. That cannot always be the case and sometimes a player simply has a good year, before regressing to a lower production.
Here are five Oilers players that may regress next season.
#5 Alex Chiasson
Last Season: 65GP - 11-13-24
Alex Chiasson is a fine, if unspectacular bottom six winger. He is a role player who knows what he needs to do on a nightly basis. In 18/19, Chiasson had his best season with 22 goals through 73 games and was used on a regular basis in the top six. Last season with more depth, Alex stayed in his more comfortable spot in the bottom six. Why He Will Regress: Chiasson may not be in the lineup every night as the right side has improved since the beginning of last season. He will be competing with Archibald, Kassian, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi for regular ice time.
The biggest reason will be how much powerplay time he receives. Last season 13 of his 24 points came at 5 on 4 which includes 6 of his 11 goals. James Neal, Jesse Puljujarvi or perhaps even Kyle Turris may all get a crack at the top unit.
Why He Won't Regress: It isn't unreasonable to expect maybe a couple more goals from Chiasson at 5 on 5 next season and if he does prove to be the best option on the 1st PP unit it will be difficult for Tippett to take him out of the lineup.
# 4 Zack Kassian
Last Season: 59GP - 15-19-34
Kassian became the newest member of the "scores more next to McDavid club," joining previous alumni such as Ty Rattie and Patrick Maroon. Kassian skates quite well for his size and can flash some smooth hands from time to time. Being the guy to go into the tough areas and get the puck out for McDavid helped this duo outperform their opposition.
Why He Will Regress: Because we have already seen it occur. In the 20 games Kassian played in from January 1st to the end of the regular season, Kassian only put up 7 of his 34 points with only 2 goals. Kassian has shown to be inconsistent at times and like other pests, if he is not playing his game he isn't really bringing much to the table. On the other end of the spectrum, Kassian has made some bone headed and suspension worthy mistakes which make him a liability.
Why He Won't Regress: If Kassian can toe the line better and stay smart he does bring an unique element to the Oilers top six. A shortened season may also work in Kassian's favor with less games potentially allowing for a fresher Zack.
#3 James Neal
Last Season: 55GP - 19-12-31
Neal came to the Edmonton Oilers in a sweet move that allowed the team to be free of the Milan Lucic albatross deal. Neal dealt with some injuries but still produced 20 goals (according to the NHL ruling on the deal) and became a veteran player Tippett could move around the lineup.
Why He Will Regress: 7 of Neal's 19 goals came in the first 4 games of the season and if you think he will do that again, I applaud your optimism. In fact 10 of Neal's goals came in five games; 3 of those being a hat-trick he recorded on December 31st. Those would be the last goals Neal scored last season despite playing in 13 contests after that.
Like Chiasson, much of his offense came from the PP and if he is taken off that top unit than his production will certainly drop. Now 33 years old there is also an age factor to consider. Neal also may not receieve many gravy minutes in the top six with RNH, Kahun, and Ennis all likely above him.
Why He Won't Regress: A shortened season could also help the veteran player and if Ennis or Kahun aren't clicking in the top six Neal could once again find himself next to McDavid or Draisaitl. Also the injuries that plagued him last season shouldn't effect him moving forward.
#2 Leon Draisaitl
Last Season: 71GP - 43-67-110
Draisaitl was the league MVP last season and well deserving of the Hart Trophy. His 110 points in 71 games was the best in the league and well ahead of the second best Connor McDavid. Draisaitl showed last season he doesn't need McDavid to generate offense and as long as he is paired with true top six players he can dazzle.
Why He Will Regress: High shooting percentages are always a pause for concern. A year ago Draisaitl posted 50 goals in 82 games on a 21.6SH%. This year he posted 43 goals on a 19.7SH%. His average is a bit lower at 16.9 so we may see a bit of a dip there.
Another factor is how much of his production comes from the PP. Draisaitl went 16-28-44 on the powerplay alone. Special teams can be a fickle thing and while I expect Edmonton to still have a top 5 PP next season, where the goals come from can change quickly.
Part of Draisaitl's success came from how good he was with RNH and Yamamoto and it may be unreasonable to expect that line will stay red hot through a full season or if the trio will stay together.
Why He Won't Regress: Because he has done this twice in a row now. This wasn't a single flash in the pan for Leon Draisaitl. He has posted two 100+ point seasons in a row in pretty convincing fashion. Even if his SH% takes a dip, this is a player who can produce above a 35+ goal pace which is elite. If 20/21 was an 82 game season I could still see Leon producing above 90 points which would technically be a step back, but I doubt many fans would be dissapointed.
#1 Kailer Yamamoto
Last Season: 27GP - 11-15-26
Yamamoto was the best thing that happened for the Edmonton Oilers at the end of December. The 5'8 winger immediately stepped in as a top six player and gelled so well with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Despite his small frame, Yamamoto proved to be a tenacious player with no fear.
Why He Will Regress: I can't stress this enough; high shooting percentages are cause for concern. Kailer Yamamoto scored 11 goals last season on 44 shots; that's a 25SH% which is extremely high. Despite not even shooting an average of two shots a game, Yamamoto scored 11 goals.
There are also the rigors of the NHL. Yamamoto looked sharp in 27 games but we haven't seen him over a longer stretch yet. Will he still look as effective in game 50 of a season as he did in game 1? It isn't uncommon to see stretches of struggle for young players and while that didn't happen for Yamamoto last season, it could certainly happen this year.
Why He Won't Regress: This might sound obvious but if Yamamoto can learn to shoot the puck more I think he will be fine. Yamamoto is a brilliant play-maker and almost every rookie has the tendency to defect to their veteran linemates. I believe Tippett will continue to coach Yamamoto and by upping his shot volume, his goal totals may not drop off too heavily.
Thanks for reading.