Flyers 2020 Draft Wrapup
The Philadelphia Flyers traded up twice in the latter rounds of the 2020 NHL Draft, in order to be able to select two players who were still on the board at the time but suspected to be unlikely to remain available by the time Philly's next turn came. As a result, the Flyers only made five picks overall this year; their lowest number since 2008. That's fine as long as, on the post-Draft development side of the equation, this year's selections ultimately provide quality over quantity.
Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher and assistant GM Brent Flahr both said after the Draft that the organization simply stuck to its approach of selecting whoever was the top remaining name on the internal rankings. At no point this year was style/role or position a factor in the selection. As a result, there were four forwards, one defenseman and no goaltenders selected this year by Philadelphia.
Stylistically speaking, the Flyers' 2020 Draft crop is dissimilar. Philly had different skill sets and primary attribute strengths to choose from with the 23rd pick of the first round -- there were well-balanced forward prospects, playmakers, undersized speedsters, toolsy defensemen, etc. -- and opted for one the two or three best pure shooters in the Draft in taking Tyson Foerster in Round 1. In Round 2, they selected an undersized offensive minded and puck moving defenseman in selecting Emil Andrae. Trading up to the first pick of the fourth round, the Flyers opted for a thick-framed power forward in Zayde Wisdom. In the fifth round, Philly went for a plus-skating two-way swingman forward best known thus far for his defensive awareness via the selection of Elliot Desnoyers. Lastly, in Round 6, the Flyers went for a pint-sized goal-scoring forward in Connor McClennon, who is a swing-for-the-fences lottery ticket that late in the Draft.
One common thread for each and every pick: they are all players for whom high "compete" levels, work ethic and motor were integral parts of the internal (and the majority of external) scouting reports. Several have been captains or alternates for their teams, and all have made good use of their time during the pandemic to work on things they'll need to improve post-Draft to someday maximize their chances of playing in the NHL.
According to both Flahr and Fletcher, that commonality was not coincidence; it reflected something specific that was being prioritized.
"Those are two of the biggest things we look at: their hockey sense and that compete, that motor. Having high energy and players that love to play the game. Just from my experience, players that love to play hockey put more time into and tend to love coming to the rink. They get better as a result. Hockey sense is just something that you can’t teach. We feel all these players have a high hockey sense and have a high motor and obviously are skilled as well. Those are intangibles that we do focus on," Fletcher said.
Added Flahr, "I’m a big hockey sense guy. I think first and foremost, obviously you want the biggest, strongest, fastest player, but if you don’t have hockey sense, it doesn’t matter. All these players we feel have a really good head for the game. With their competitiveness and skillset, it will give them a chance. We need to help them along. At the same time, we feel like they have the character and the drive to make themselves players and valuable assets to our organization."
There are no "can't miss" prospects in this year's crop of Flyers picks. Each and every one brought at least one significant question mark -- whether it's skating, the combo of lacking size/strength, or being unproven in upper-lineup roles leading into their Draft-plus-one year -- that must be addressed to progress to NHL-caliber standards. Nonetheless, when you collect some high quality raw materials and identify players with the work ethic and inner drive to work on addressing their areas of need, you've given yourself a fighting chance at producing some pros on the other side of the Draft.
There is a pick-by-pick capsule on the Flyers' official website. If you prefer it in podcast form, Brian Smith and I recorded a draft wrapup edition of the Prospect Pipeline show for the Flyers Broadcast Network.
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Free Agency Eve
The free agency period for the National Hockey League begins on Friday, both for restricted and unrestricted free agents. The Flyers have tendered the required qualifying offers for RFA center Nolan Patrick and defenseman Phil Myers (as well as center Mikhail Vorobyev, strictly in order to retain his NHL rights after he went back to Russia and signed a three-season KHL contract). The team's unrestricted free agents of note are forwards Tyler Pitlick, Derek Grant and Nate Thompson.
While rumors swirled all week about the Flyers being in the hunt to trade for 22-year-old Winnipeg Jets sniping right winger Patrik Laine (about whom I blogged earlier this week), the team's single most glaring need is a right defense replacement for the retired Matt Niskanen. The second-biggest need is a center who can lift the third line into a third viable scoring line. The in-house candidates to do so are Patrick (if he makes a healthy and more consistently productive NHL return after missing the entire 2019-20 season) and Morgan Frost (if he takes the next steps following an uneven but promising rookie AHL/NHL season).
Fletcher was asked on Wednesday if he anticipates being active at the start of the free agency season, whether via pursuing free agents or making trades now and then reassessing salary cap management and, potentially, Expansion Draft strategy as well. He gave a typically close-to-the-vest and measured response.
"I’m not sure. It’ll depend on the opportunities that are there and the prices. As I’ve mentioned before, we like our group. I think our forward group is stronger than what it was at the end of last year. We’ve lost Niskanen, but we still like our defensive corps. We like our goaltending," Fletcher said.
"If we can improve our team, we will, but we’re not going to spend money just to spend it. If there’s some ability to add a player on the right deal at the right cap price and the right term, we’ll do it. If not, we’ll certainly wait. I think there will be opportunities along the way to address whatever needs we feel we need to address."
There is one UFA and one UFA only -- Alex Pietrangelo -- who would not only check all the boxes that it would take to replace Niskanen but to be a clear upgrade in that spot. In fact, Ivan Provorov would become a top-end No. 2 defenseman, especially paired with Pietrangelo. In my estimation, he'd be worth adjusting the salary cap structure and even altering Expansion Draft strategy to consider the 4D/4F protection option (which, realistically, would also require agreement from Claude Giroux to waive his no-movement clause so that the Flyers could protect one of Oskar Lindblom or Patrick) rather than the generally more preferred 3D/7F option (which would leave one of Travis Sanheim or Myers exposed).
While Darren Dreger has stated that his sources say the Flyers are lukewarm on pursuing Pietrangelo due to the term, cap and Expansion Draft considerations it would create, it's not very often that a bonafide No. 1 defenseman still in his prime (although now age 30) is available without trading a slew of assets for him. If the player himself doesn't want to consider a Flyers offer among his destination options, that's a different matter.
But even if the Flyers went the trade route to address the loss of Niskanen, such as the rumored availability of Vegas' Nate Schmidt and Minnesota Matt Dumba, Philly would end up in the same Expansion Draft dilemma of 3D/7F versus 4D/4F option. That would leave the option of trying to rent a 2021 UFA for one year, which would simplify the Expansion Draft issue and longer-term salary cap but also pass up on the chance to give the team an ideal top 4 on defense.
A couple weeks ago, I presented data that showed how team GAA is a more important predictor than team GPG of which teams will make the playoffs. Being middle of the pack in scoring (and Flyers were better than that in 2019-20, ranking 7th in the regular) is sufficient as long as the team defense and goaltending is in the upper one-third of the league. Being anywhere in the bottom 12-13 in team GAA, even if the team is in the upper offensive tier, means a lower than 50-50 shot at making the playoffs.
Fletcher knows full well there's an all-situation hole in the Flyers defense, and a big loss of a calming influence on the bench and the locker room, with the departure of Niskanen. He can speak of his great confidence in Sanheim and Myers continuing to improve their consistency, and do so justifiably. But he needs only to press play on video from the Islanders series to see just how uneven the performances of Sanheim and Myers were collectively and individually, to give him serious pause to wonder if breaking up that second pairing to slide one up as Provorov's full-time partner makes this blueline outlook better, similar or weaker to where it was this past season.
To me, the D now has to come first. Niskanen's retirement shifted what should be the immediate top priority.