Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Must Trade Morgan Rielly Before Next Season
Before diving into the hard truths of the Toronto Maple Leafs' current roster, it is important to establish one thing: I have an immense amount of respect for Morgan Rielly. Both as a person and as the player who has proudly represented the Maple Leafs for the past 13 years, Rielly has been nothing but pure class. He has never done anything to negatively impact the organization and has consistently carried himself with professionalism. Even if I haven’t always agreed with his on-ice and off-ice decisions throughout his career, he undeniably deserves to be treated right by this franchise.
However, treating a player with respect and keeping them on the roster are two entirely different concepts. This is why I firmly believe Morgan Rielly has, and absolutely should have, played his final game in a Toronto Maple Leafs uniform. Back in February, I reported that Rielly had been connected in trade rumors to the San Jose Sharks. Even today, a move to San Jose remains a viable option.
But why push for a trade now? The answer lies in the looming shadow of NHL expansion.
The NHL Expansion Threat and Roster Flexibility
The NHL continues to experience rapid financial and market growth. With Commissioner Gary Bettman reportedly nearing the twilight of his career, it is an open secret that he wants his ultimate legacy to be expanding the league from 32 teams to 34, or possibly even 36.
Expansion drafts introduce severe roster challenges, especially for top-heavy teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs. While a front office should not build its entire roster around a hypothetical expansion, it cannot afford to make short-sighted decisions today that will trigger long-term paralysis tomorrow. Retaining Morgan Rielly is exactly that kind of decision.
Currently, Rielly is one of six Maple Leafs with a No-Movement Clause built into his contract, joining Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Darren Raddysh, and Chris Tanev. If the NHL follows the same protection protocols as previous expansion drafts, teams will be forced to protect all players with active clauses. If Toronto opts for the standard seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie protection scheme, their three defensive slots are automatically locked by Rielly, Raddysh, and Tanev. Alternatively, going the eight-skater route leaves the team completely handcuffed and forces them to expose critical young talent.
Morgan Rielly’s Statistical Decline Under Craig Berube
If reports are accurate, Rielly is currently open to the idea of a fresh start, most likely with a Western Conference team. But in the NHL, windows close fast. Fast forward two seasons, and his mindset might change, which would create a massive headache for Toronto.
Compounding the urgency of an impending expansion is the stark reality of Rielly’s on-ice regression. His continued decline during the 2025 to 2026 NHL season raised major red flags regarding his future role in the Leafs' defensive core.
Struggling to adjust to head coach Craig Berube’s system, the veteran blueliner’s numbers took a significant hit. He posted a concerning minus 18 rating, which is his worst in nearly a decade. His ice time dropped to an average of 21:08 per game, marking his lowest usage since his sophomore season. His once-reliable offensive impact also disappeared, yielding just six power-play points despite ample opportunity with the man advantage. Advanced hockey metrics and NHL EDGE stats further highlight this regression. He ranked well below the positional average with a maximum shot speed of just 84.58 mph and struggled heavily with puck management, committing 87 giveaways.
Combined with possession metrics sitting below 50 percent at five-on-five, Rielly’s latest statistical profile underscores a steep drop-off in both his defensive reliability and overall play-driving value for Toronto.
The Chayka and Sundin Era Must Capitalize Now
We are entering a new era in Toronto where John Chayka and Mats Sundin are working to reassemble the Leafs into a legitimate, sustainable contender. In this environment, they have to ask themselves a dangerous question: what if Morgan Rielly changes his mind?
What if he decides his best chance to win a Stanley Cup remains in Toronto, refuses to waive his clause, and forces the team to protect his declining contract during an expansion draft? That is a catastrophic risk this front office simply cannot afford to take.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs and John Chayka, the mandate is clear. The front office must review all the data, read the writing on the wall, and make the difficult but correct decision. The team can no longer shelter Rielly’s declining minutes while the threat of expansion looms like an impending storm.
Toronto must strike now while Rielly still holds residual trade value and, most importantly, possesses a willingness to embrace a fresh start. This might be the franchise's only chance to orchestrate a mutually beneficial split without being left at the mercy of the player's contract clauses. At one time, Rielly could not envision himself playing anywhere but Toronto. The worst thing the Maple Leafs could do right now is wait around and let him fall back in love with the market, because the risk of doing so far outweighs the reward.