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Many of you have been asking about my predicted standings—how they work exactly, and why I even do them.
They actually come from something I’ve always hated. I hate the websites that tell you your team has a 30%, 40%, 10%, or 70% chance of making the playoffs. That might be true in that exact moment in time, but remember: only half the teams in the NHL make the playoffs. When you assign percentages like that, you’re basically giving everyone a chance. I’ve always found that approach a little too simple.
So instead, I came up with a system that looks at 14 different factors: injuries, back-to-backs, streaking teams, how teams have historically performed against each other, good teams at home, struggling teams at home, travel, and what I believe is always the most important factor in any game—desperation. Because generally, in the NHL at this time of year, the team that has to win to stay alive often has a better chance of winning than the numbers might suggest. That’s just part of what makes this sport so great.
Below is a look at my predictions for tonight’s big games. And remember—these predictions can absolutely be wrong. In fact, I’ve had a rough start recently. But over the years I’ve learned that the system tends to tune itself in after about a week. So we’ll see.
Tonight there are several games with major playoff implications. Below is exactly what I think will happen in each of them based on the formula. If everything unfolds exactly as predicted, the projected standings tomorrow will be the same as the projected standings today. But every time a result goes the other way—when one of the projections is wrong—it changes the projected standings and can create a ripple effect across the league.
That’s actually what makes checking the projections every morning kind of fun.
So here are tonight’s picks…
I thought it would be interesting to analyze one of these games and show you how to rejected standings can be looked at along with the current actual standings...
Anaheim vs. Ottawa
Anaheim Currently: The ducks are precariously sitting at top the Crazy Pacific division. Only one point ahead of Vegas only two points ahead of Edmonton four points ahead of LA five points ahead of San Jose who are out of the playoffs, but have two games in hand on the Ducks.
Ottawa Currently: the senators are five points behind Boston for the final wildcard with a game in hand, and six points behind Detroit, with two games in hand
Anaheim Projected Finish: Win the division by with 97 points buy a single point over both Edmonton and LA with 96 points
Ottawa Projected Finish: Trending to finish tenth in the conference, 2 points behind Pitt, who are only 1 point behind Boston for the Final Spot...
The importance of tonight's game between these two teams... The team is more desperate in this situation is definitely Ottawa as they are sitting outside the play spot while the ducks are at the top of their division.
Here are the current projected standings....
