It's been a party at the NHL Board of Governors meetings this week in Pebble Beach, California.
The league is bursting with good news about rising salary caps, new entertainment initiatives and expansion possibilities. It's hard to believe that at this time last year, we were in the midst of a lockout. Gary Bettman and his team have really come back strong this time.
Some thoughts on how the Canucks' issues fit into this big-picture framework:
Expansion to Seattle Will Come—Eventually
Bettman has said that there will be no expansion for the 2014-15 season, but the new conference structure certainly leaves room for a couple of new teams, especially on the west coast.
Seattle may not have much of a natural hockey base, but the current strength of west coast franchises makes this an ideal time to grow the sport in this region. The four teams in the Pacific Time Zone—Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver—all currently reside in the NHL's top 10.
Geographically, adding a team in Seattle would be amazing for the Canucks. They'd have a rival within easy travel distance and fans would have an easy opportunity to travel to games.
I wonder if Portland could also be persuaded to get on board?
The Salary Cap Will Rise—Then Vancouver Can Bring in New Blood
As expected, the salary cap will rise dramatically next year, to about $71.1 million. This will alter the player-personnel landscape around the league.
It will give the Canucks a little more room to maneuver, which is all the more reason why I don't think we'll see any big player moves this year. Between the transition to the new coach—which is still a work in progress—and the tight budget issues, the Canucks are not currently bargaining from a position of power.
There's every reason to think we'll see ongoing increases in future years. It shouldn't take long before today's "big" salaries seem relatively paltry by comparison.
Luongo Won't Get Bought Out
One of those contracts is Roberto Luongo's. Henrik Lundqvist's new seven-year deal with an average cap hit of $8.5 million is more than 50 percent greater than Luongo's $5.33 million, further raising expectations of what elite goalies will earn.
Luongo has a chance to submit a list of five teams for trade consideration this summer. If he still wants to leave, I think he could be moved. He has done a terrific job of eliminating the drama and re-establishing himself as a No. 1 goaltender. A good performance at the Olympics and/or in the playoffs would go even farther towards increasing his value.
The Florida Panthers still haven't sorted out their own goaltending situation, and they'll need to spend some money to stay above the cap floor. Will brash new owner Vincent Viola take the plunge and lock up Luongo for the last eight years of his deal?
I don't think the Aquilinis will buy out Luongo's contract this summer, but I do think he'll be a tradeable commodity if he still wants out of Vancouver.
Edler's Not Going Anywhere
I kind of hate to bring this up since Alex Edler is such a popular target for trade speculation, but I just don't think it'll happen.
Here's the simple reason: the hometown discount.
Vancouver re-signed Edler last year at a cap hit of $5 million. That's the same money that 39-year-old Sergei Gonchar got when he signed as a free agent with Dallas, though Edler's term is longer.
Even when you factor in Edler's inconsistency, the deal is good value and will look even better as the salary cap rises. The player clearly left money on the table to re-sign with the Canucks, and received a no-trade clause in return.
Mike Gillis has used this strategy very effectively during his time in Vancouver. During the last five years, Christian Ehrhoff is the only significant player that the Canucks wanted to re-sign, but couldn't.
Yes, the current situation means that Gillis doesn't have many possible trade chips in play, but it also means that he's stretching his salary-cap dollars while keeping some very good players in Vancouver.
An attempt to trade Edler would not only betray the spirit of a contract that was signed less than a year ago, it would destroy the hometown discount as a negotiating tool for future deals. Edler is tight with Vancouver's core group and has never given any indication that he'd prefer to play elsewhere. Better to keep him in the fold than risk the future consequences.
Trade Chips
The good news is that the Canucks have some breakout players on the roster this year, who could be interesting trade bait for other teams.
If you believe in buying low and selling high, you could do worse than to see what the market might offer up for Chris Tanev, Ryan Stanton or Mike Santorelli. It's fantastic to see their emergence, but all three of those players were acquired for nothing. Could we flip one of them for something even more valuable? Use them as bait to help move a contract like David Booth's?
Eklund was suggesting that Vancouver has interest in Dion Phaneuf, but that makes no sense to me. He's on an expiring contract and will be expecting big money in the summer. I don't think the Canucks would want to invest in another top-four blueliner and they don't need him as a rental.
Ed Willes from The Province was musing about Evander Kane, which is much more interesting:
It seems the bloom is off the rose between Evander Kane and the Winnipeg Jets.Kane hasn’t exactly embraced life on the frozen tundra or in the Jets organization. The team, for its part, is starting to view Kane as more trouble than he’s worth.
Granted, negotiating a trade for a 22-year-old power forward of Kane’s ability would be harder than negotiating a new version of NAFTA, but players like this don’t become available every day. Kane’s from Vancouver. He has the potential to be a game-changer.
Kane could be the player we want Zack Kassian to be. Would there be a way to build a package that would work for the Jets without ruffling our core group?