The Phoenix Coyotes sit in an unenviable position as the NHL resumes this week: they are tied for 8th place with a Stars team they have recently lost twice to, and are in a pack of five to seven teams fighting for the last two playoff positions and the final Pacific divisional position, depending on how you break it down. (See yesterday's blog for further clarification).
No matter how you look at it though, the Coyotes are in tough to qualify for the playoffs.
In my opinion, the best thing they could do for the future of the franchise would be to realize that since moving beyond the first round this year is highly unlikely and then capitalize on a strong seller’s market by selling off veteran players to teams who might overpay at this time of year.
With all but a handful of team league wide still entertaining the possibility of making the playoffs, they could take advantage of the dearth of available impact players and make some favorable trades. They could move guys like Vermette, Vbrata, Doan and Ribiero for picks and prospects and future cap flexibility. It would be a short-term hit to the team in exchange for better long-term success. They would also get a higher draft pick and all it would really cost them is a single playoff round. Hell, they might not even make the playoffs if they become "buyers" anyway. The bottom line here is that the Coyotes are not cup contenders and yet, they have a relatively nice collection of prospects and young players to build upon. Sacrificing this year’s playoffs to add extra first and second round picks and/or possible high-ceiling prospects should be a no-brainer. Except it will never happen.
Unfortunately, this isn't really a real option because the Coyotes are - last I heard - dead last in NHL attendance, have new ownership after years instability, and are too focused on building their brand in the huge Arizona market – something that would definitely take a hit if they were to appear to be giving up on the season. For all these reasons, I can't see them becoming sellers. Secondary to these logistical reasons is that no one really wants to give up on the year, even if it is probably the smartest thing they could do for the team’s long-term ability to compete for a Stanley Cup. As Coyotes fans, we must face up to the fact that, at least for now, perception and the building of the brand are of superior importance to ownership and management than building for the future. What that means is that – and this is 100% conjecture on my part – one playoff series in 2013-14 is worth more than the chance to be a true contender in 2016 or 2017.
The second option for the team approaching the deadline is to do basically nothing. Maybe add a 2nd or 3rd line forward, maybe a sixth defenseman and hope that the improved health of Doan and the current talent on the roster will be enough to get them to the playoffs where they will hope to get lucky.
This is, as I see it, the most likely of options because it’s the NHL and there is almost zero ‘outside-the-box’ thinking and it’s also very difficult, cap-wise, to make large in season trades, especially in light of the lockout and many of the teams being right up against the cap.
The Coyotes would clearly like to improve on forward, but as their core players for the foreseeable future (OEL, Yandle, Boedker, Hanzal, Domi, Murphy, Stone, Gromely) are all fairly young and it does make sense - if they are dead-set against a minor rebuild – to just stay the course and continue to evaluate what they have, while waiting for the summer to make any major moves.
I predict that this is the option they elect to take in the coming week. Perhaps acquiring a Lee Stepniak or a Mike Cammellerri, but not doing anything major.
This is a sensible (if conservative) strategy because the Coyotes have a bevy of young defenseman, and though all are well regarded as potentially better than average NHL regulars, there is really no knowing for sure how a guy is going to turn out. The Coyotes have Michael Stone, David Rundblad, Connor Murphy and Brandon Gormley, all who could be stars in the NHL, but who also might amount to nothing. At this point, all they know for sure is that they really have no place to play Rundblad. Of the other three, I think there is considerable risk in trading them because you are unlikely to get the value that they could add to the team should they graduate to NHL and become successful. Add to this the secondary conundrum of having the chance to guess wrong: what if they trade away Murphy only to see him become a star while Gormely fails to live up to the hype? It’s probably best to trade what you know and keep your prospects until they start to establish themselves.
And that brings us to option number three: A Blockbuster Trade involving Keith Yandle.
Keith Yandle is a 27 year old top-pairing defenseman in the prime of his career. He is signed for two more years after this one and costs a more than manageable cap hit of $5.25 Million. Yandle may not be OEL, but he is a solid top-pairing puck-moving defenseman who can quarterback a powerplay and whose defense and play without the puck is vastly – and I mean criminally – underrated.
While watching Yandle and Oliver Ekman-Larsson play catch on the power-play is one of the best things you can watch in the entire NHL at the moment, this is a luxury the Coyotes can no longer afford. The fact is, everything that Yandle can bring to the table can be replaced by players already on the roster or in the organization. OEL already provides elite PP skill; Rundblad would now have a place to play and the Coyotes back-end mobility and puck-movingness would barely be compromised.
The Coyotes are so deep on D that the least risky move they can make is to trade the asset they already know everything about. Plus, outside of OEL, no one on the Coyotes would bring the return that Yandle would. I love Keith Yandle, but I think trading him is a no-brainer. I think it’s fairly certain that if he was made available, he would easily be the best available defenseman on the market and that the return you’d get for him now would be higher than at any other time.
The Coyotes are in desperate need for an elite forward and Yandle has a good chance of bringing one in, whether it’s going for a currently established player with high potential, like Braydon Schenn, or even a potential lottery pick from a team in desperate need of a top-pairing defenseman, the options seem limitless.
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