Teams can enjoy a level of success for years, but at some point when the burden of big contracts limits the ability to add talent or when core players get too old, the downward spiral becomes inevitable. At that point, ownership and management have to make the difficult decision on how to reset their franchise and build towards being a competitive club once again.
That dilemma was in front of the Toronto Maple Leafs six years ago and is now facing the two clubs tied in history by the 1970 NHL expansion; the Buffalo Sabres and Vancouver Canucks.
Both clubs had close brushes with championship glory within the last decade(Buffalo with two consecutive Conference Final appearances in 2006 and 2007, Vancouver with a loss to Boston in Game 7 of the 2011 Stanley Cup Final), but clearly have determined that better days are behind them, as the exodus from both cities has begun.
The Sabres have been in transition since early in the lockout shortened 2013 season, firing head coaches Lindy Ruff and Ron Rolston, general manager Darcy Regier and President of Hockey Operations Pat Lafontaine after just 109 days on the job.
Regier and new GM Tim Murray have been selling off significant pieces for future picks and prospects, moving Jason Pominville to Minnesota last April, Thomas Vanek to the New York Islanders last October and in the week preceding Wednesday’s trade deadline sending Steve Ott and Ryan Miller to St. Louis, Matt Moulson to Minnesota, young defenseman Brayden McNabb to Los Angeles and goaltender Jaroslav Halak to Washington.
The Sabres saw first-hand how a proper rebuild can work on Sunday, as Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews scored goals in a 2-1 Chicago victory at the First Niagara Center. The Hawks took full advantage of their struggles over two seasons by drafting Toews third overall in 2006 and Kane first overall in 2007. That is also the method that Pittsburgh used to gain prominence on two separate occasions with top pick Mario Lemieux in 1984 and 20 years later with Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby in back-to-back drafts.
Buffalo could have two lottery picks this June, depending on whether the Islanders use the option to give up or retain their first round pick as part of the Vanek deal and appear well positioned to be near the bottom of the league in 2014-15, which would give them a good chance at selecting Erie Otters phenom Connor McDavid or U.S. National Development star Jack Eichel.
Canucks GM Mike Gillis started dismantling his club unintentionally last June, trading backup goalie Cory Schneider to New Jersey for a first round pick and sending Roberto Luongo to Florida after nearly two years of rumors and acrimony. The bad decision making and mishandling of the goaltending situation leaves Vancouver with the inexperienced pairing of Eddie Lack and Jacob Markstrom and has Gillis talking openly of re-tooling his club.
The Canucks reportedly came close to moving former Selke Trophy winner Ryan Kesler and defenseman Alexander Edler last Wednesday and could be shopping them over the summer along with veterans Kevin Bieksa, Alexandre Burrows and Dan Hamhuis, but intend to keep and build around 33-year-old Henrik and Daniel Sedin, who signed four-year contract extensions last fall.
While bottoming out and building around top draft picks is not a foolproof method for success(Edmonton and Florida are chock full of lottery selections and continue to struggle), it appears to have more positive outcomes than the re-tooling road.
The Boston Bruins were successful at building a championship hitting homeruns on lower draft picks(Milan Lucic, David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand), making astute free agent signings(Tim Thomas, Zdeno Chara) and getting the better end of trades(Nathan Horton, Mark Recchi, Tuukka Rask and Dennis Seidenberg).
The Maple Leafs recent return to respectability has been a hybrid of the two methods, but has also been fraught with lost opportunities. In 2008, the organization blew a chance to do what the Sabres have successfully done and be in a position to draft Steven Stamkos, Drew Doughty or Alex Pietrangelo by not moving veterans Mats Sundin, Pavel Kubina, Tomas Kaberle and Bryan McCabe at the trade deadline. They only moved into lottery position by trading up with the Islanders to select Luke Schenn fifth overall.
The following year, the Leafs were just good enough to finish out of the lottery and selected Nazem Kadri seventh overall. GM Brian Burke had a chance to obtain Phil Kessel in a deal for Kaberle, but confusion over who was to include a first round pick led to talks breaking down between Burke and Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli. Less than three months later, Toronto traded three draft choices for the former lottery pick, one of which became 2010 second overall pick Tyler Seguin.
Eventually Burke did add top end talent, obtaining 2007 lottery pick James van Riemsdyk from Philadelphia for Schenn and drafting Morgan Rielly with the fifth pick in 2013, but it is questionable whether the group he assembled before being dismissed in 2013 will be as successful down the road had Toronto drafted the likes John Tavares or Matt Duchene instead.
Only time will tell whether Toronto, Buffalo and Vancouver made the right decisions.
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Toronto begins a key five game road swing with three California contests over the next four days, starting with the Anaheim Ducks on Monday night. The Leafs will need to at least go .500 during the lengthy trip to maintain their place in the top three of the Atlantic Division.
The contest will have significant meaning for Leafs coach Randy Carlyle, who returns to Anaheim for the first time since being fired in November, 2011 as well as Joffrey Lupul, Troy Bodie and former first rounders Peter Holland and Jake Gardiner, who were drafted or played in Southern California.
Center Dave Bolland made the trip with the club and may get back into the lineup at some point during the 10 day road trip, but will not make his return on Monday. Winger David Clarkson took the morning skate as an extra forward in Anaheim to test the muscle pull that prevented him from playing against Philadelphia on Saturday, while Colton Orr skated with Frazer McLaren and Jay McClement and may return to the lineup after missing the last seven games with an undisclosed injury.
Frederick Andersen, who is 15-3-0 on the season and has won five of his last six starts will be in goal for Anaheim, while Jonathan Bernier will be in goal for Toronto.
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