Great teams continue to play their game regardless of the score – that’s why they’re great teams. Here are the top 5 teams in Fenwick percentage when leading by 2+ goals and their standings location.
Tampa (2nd East) LA (7th West) Chicago (2nd West) New York Islanders (3rd East) St Louis (4th West)
Chicago, Tampa and LA all appear in the top 5 F% leading by 1 goal – with Pittsburgh (1st East) and Minnesota (10th West) replacing NYI and STL.
Aside from Minnesota – who you could argue should have a better fate in some of their games – everyone who continues to drive possession regardless of the score is a playoff team.
When you’re up two goals or more you know the opposition is going to push for a comeback, it’s just a logical sequence of events. So, is it a better idea to sit back and concede possession? Or is it a better idea to continue to play your game? The above teams would tell you it’s the latter.
Now let’s look at three teams that have played top ranked minutes up two goals but have terrible possession numbers when they play during that Up2+ TOI.
Toronto: 39.9% Fenwick – 6th in the East Philadelphia: 42.0% Fenwick – 12th in East New York: 41.8% Fenwick – 7th in East
The Leafs are struggling to stay where they are and the Rangers have won eight of their last ten to get to the seventh position in the East (as well as sit third in the league for F% Up1 - 53.0% - during their ten game stretch). It’s safe to say that playing consistent hockey throughout the game is going to get you further. All of these teams have been guilty of blowing leads and allowing teams back in games – and sometimes giving away victories.
San Jose is no different.
The Sharks have a 42.9% Fenwick when up two goals and we all know they love to protect the lead as opposed to continuing to play their game. We also know they blow leads like they’re going out of style and it has cost them this season.
The teams in the top 5 for both Up1 and Up2 Fenwick percentage (TB, CHI, LA) all have something in common: a stellar group of defensemen. While their Fenwick percentages up one and up two are all lower than their Score-Adjusted Fenwick totals they have the rearguards to compensate for such a drop.
Teams like San Jose, Toronto, Philly and the Rangers don’t have the same luxury therefore they shouldn’t be sitting back as much as they do when they go up by a goal or two. When you give team’s control of the puck by dumping it in and falling back into a 1-2-2 zone-like defense and you don’t have the quality on defense that’s needed to whether the oncoming storm you’d be better served to just play the way you had to reach this point in the game.
If you significantly lower yourself in possession teams will score – gain momentum – and you might not be able to recover. Protecting the lead by significantly allowing possession to be transferred is only effective if you have a top defensive team – using TB/CHI/LA as benchmarks – so if you’re team isn't one of those then you probably want them to continue their game-plan.
Thanks for reading.