The Deadline in Review- Jets did What?
It was a dull day in Winnipeg, as the Jets did absolutely nothing to either bolster their roster or their draft options. It was all-quiet on the western front on a snowy day in Winnipeg, much like every other say since the start of December. It’s almost a wonder that there are trade requests flying out of Vancouver and not Winnipeg after this winter but that’s a whole other topic of discussion.
What Jets fans got today was bad news and more bad news if you are a glass half full kind of person. The first came early when it was revealed that Scheifele had sustained an MCL injury that would keep him out for 6-8 weeks. It was the Islanders the night before who held players out of the line-up to protect their trade value for the deadline in their 3-2 OT win and ironically it was an injury to a Jet that had the biggest effect.
What we learned from Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff was that he and his team had to change course after the severity of Scheifele’s injury was determined. They could no longer be buyers or sellers. Instead they tried to make something happen but nothing would prevail. Once the news about Scheifele sank in most fans, at least those on Twitter, accepted the fact that any answer would come from within the organization. Whether it be a healthy scratch or a call up from St. John’s, the hope of Jets activity in the most over-hyped day of the NHL season now turned to selling.
Who would be gone, Setoguchi, Jokinen, Stuart? What about Postma, Thorburn or Pardy? In the end it was nothing, for a third straight year the Jets did very little or nothing at the deadline. For some it made sense but for others frustration was evident as with the team down a 2nd line centre and sniffing the post season again with 19 games left why not make a deal. There had to be a deal to be made.
Ed Tait of the Winnipeg Free Press proposed that the long held interest in Byfuglien by Philadelphia could land a Braden Schenn to play centre. It would divest the Jets of a highly paid third line winger for a younger player with upside, one who fit the model of a good western kid. Alas that was not to be, or anything else.
Eventually Gary Lawless tweeted out that the rumoured deal with San Jose had cooled off too and it was unlikely anything would get done at all. What was going so right since Paul Maurice took over had taken a harsh turn, right off the road.
Just another late season collapse in Winnipeg, the same as it ever was and that dates back to Jets 1.0.
When Kevin Cheveldayoff held his press conference at 2:50 local time the first news was an excited GM announcing that the team and stalwart defenseman Mark Stuart had agreed on a contract extension, 4 years worth a total of 10.5 million. Stuart turns 30 in April.
Admittedly I was, and still am not a fan of the deal. I’m not enthralled by the valuation nor do I like the length of the deal. I’m also not blind to the value Stuart brings to this team in the form of ‘intangibles’. You know, those things that cannot be measured.
Why would anyone not like Stu on this team? Mainly because the team has him in a top 4 defense role right now and that is a problem. While that’s not Stuart’s fault and he has served faithfully in the role, the deal seems eerily similar to Grant Clitsome’s the guy Stuart is filling in for due to the former’s sever back injury. Clitsome was just short of atrocious this season. He however has not had the benefit of a coaching change like his mates, so holding judgment until next season seems fair to the player.
What concerns me, and others, is Stuart had a $900,000 raise per year on cap hit while his most basic stats stayed in neutral. Let’s look at his key possession stat- Corsi % with and without his most frequent on-ice players HERE
If you look at that chart from the great site from David Johnson at HockeyAnalysis.com you will see three sections: Stuart with his players on the ice, Stuart without those players on the ice and those players without Stuart. The Corsi % stat is the one listed as CF%. While redundant to most readers this stat tells us the measure of possession the player has, the higher the number the more possession of the puck- that’s good.
Look at the first CF% column and the CA20 (CA 20 means Corsi events against per 20 mins of ice time at 5v5) in Stuart with Player, here are his most frequent line mates all playing 200 mins with Stu on the ice at 5 vs 5:
Trouba: 45.1/22.53 Scheifele: 45.2/23.09 Frolik: 47/22.42 Jokinen 42/21.05 Setoguchi: 44.9/21.01 Wheeler: 44.4 /23.75
There is not one player who is holding possession of the puck greater than 50% of the time and every player is having at least 1 shot attempt made against them per minute of play, a Corsi event. Below is the same list in the same order with the same stats when those players are away from Stuart.
Trouba: 49.8/18.59 Scheifele: 49.6/18.26 Frolik: 53.0/17.93 Jokinen: 50.4/18.63 SEtoguchi: 49.8/19.27 Wheeler: 50.9/17.89
As you can see every player got better when they were not on the ice with Stuart. Here is the link to Last Season. You can see I’m not hand picking data, as both Kane and Burmistrov were better with Stu than without at even strength. However the last full season it goes back to the same problem as you can see Here. The outlier is Randy Jones but does anyone remember him, or want to?
Go back to the last full season Stuart played in Boston, 2009-10 and you can see the < a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=576&withagainst=true&season=2009-10&sit=5v5">same basic thing except with one wrinkle the CA20 seems to favour playing with Stuart. He was never going to be an offensive player but he was always decent on defense and it shows by possession metric. That is changing now and not in the right way. That’s why it’s confusing that given the strong part of his game is defense and it’s getting worse he got a raise, one of almost 55% over his last AAV.
What does Stuart do that makes the Jets feel he deserves more money when he may be getting worse at what he is supposed to be good at?
Don’t ask Denis Beyak he won’t tell you the answer or at least he’ll tell you what Stu brings to the game and off the ice. Today on the much listened to Hustler and Lawless show on TSN 1290 Denis Beyak, the very good voice of the Jets for the TSN Jets TV channel, set off a fire-storm of questioning. When discussing the Stuart deal Beyak was asked to comment by Lawless on Stu’s contract. Lawless threw a bit of bait into the water when he mentioned that the advanced stats guys don’t like the deal too much. Beyak’s reply was along this paraphrase “well I can tell you advanced stats say the Buffalo Sabres are the best team in the NHL…. BOOM!
It was a sarcastic (failed perhaps) attempt at saying ‘stats can say anything if you want them too’ and it illustrated what many feel is Beyak’s blatant contempt for the new tools and data around the NHL. Twitter lit up and many who, like myself find value and enjoyment in the stats were somewhat offended and maybe angered at Beyak’s misrepresentation of advanced stats. You can argue this all you want with Beyak, his defenders and more- I’m done.
I’m not done thinking about Stu’s value and the Jets though as something else isn’t sitting right with me and it started with this tweet.
#NHLJets Cheveldayoff says ownership was in on some discussions the last couple of days, because some deals involved their investment
— 680 CJOB Sports (@CJOBSports) March 5, 2014More than a few people asked me what the hell that meant. I would say it’s got to do with being offered a deal where the Jets perhaps could move a core piece but had to retain some salary or to acquire a player they had to step outside an internal budget.
For a small market team it would be naà¯ve to think that there is not an internal budget versus what the cap says they can spend. While the Jets co-owner David Thomson, the First Baron of Fleet, has the deepest pockets of any owner in the NHL he and partner Mark Chipman may want a say in some expenses. As the above tweet says ‘some deals involved their investment’. If they were looking closely at the deal within the organization they may realize that their GM committed an extra 3.6 million to a player who is getting worse at what he supposedly does best. In fact they may be totally unaware that they are paying for ‘intangibles’ or they may be completely aware and very content.
The one person who is content is Jacob Trouba, rookie defenseman and possible franchise players.
Couldn't be happier to see Stuey is staying in Winnipeg for 4 more years. Great partner and even better teammate. #stuuuuuu
— Jacob Trouba (@JacobTrouba) March 5, 2014Right there may be the reason $900,000 for a raise is acceptable as this is a kid the Jets want to keep around. That would mean keeping Stu for two years into Trouba’s next deal, one that would start two years from now. For most Jets fans, that’s an intangible they have no problem paying for, especially if it’s Mark Stuart.