The New York Rangers completed their off-season free agency moves today, inking Kevin Hayes to an entry level contract. Hayes, drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round with the 24th overall in 2010, became a free agent on August 15 when he opted not to come to terms with Chicago. He seemingly had his choice of places to go, narrowing down that list to four to five this past Sunday, including Boston and Colorado, before choosing the Blueshirts today.
Regardless of your view as to the possible distaste for a player choosing his team after getting drafted, getting Hayes is a coup for New York. With no first round pick the last two seasons and having dealt this year's pick to Tampa Bay in the Martin St. Louis, the Rangers have bolstered their talent by adding college free agents. Last year, it was Ryan Haggerty (RPI), Mat Bodie (Union) and Chris McCarthy (Vermont) who came on board. Now, by adding Hayes, it helps further filled the ago created by the lack of a first round pick.
The jury is a bit out as to the impact Hayes will make and if that impact can come next year.
Hayes had the size at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds to create and carve out space with the puck-handling skills to retain possession and thrive in coach Alain Vigneault's system. His ability to score, seen in his 27 goals and 38 assists in 40 games, shows that he doesn't just look good on the ice but has the hands to produce. Hayes, who is a left-handed shot, is listed by many as a center, where he played his first three years in college, but there is better than strong likelihood that he plays right wing, which is the role he moved to and filled best his final season at BC. There are several who believe that Hayes, if he had been draft-eligible this year, would not have been a first-round pick, while others believe he would have been a mid-tier first rounder, going between 15 and 25. Some feel that Hayes will not break camp with the camp while you can find enough who think that he could break camp with the team, likely as part of the third line.
I will get to the possible line combinations, but regardless of if breaks camp with the team, New York added talent for a minimal cost. Hayes signed a two-year ELC but one with healthy performance bonuses of $2.85 mil per year, giving him an AAV of $3.75 mil that could have a material impact on the future cap, if he meets those marks. His relationship with Chris Kreider, who played with Hayes at BC in 2010-11 and 2011-12, clearly played a major part in getting the winger to Broadway. in addition, what bodes even better is how much Kreider views himself a part of the team for the long run, ending all that speculation for the past few years as to how unhappy he must be after getting moved up and down between Hartford and NY. I expect a major breakthrough year from CK20.
Projected Lineup with Salaries and Remaining Cap Space:
Before signing Hayes, NY had about $1.9 million in cap room, but still have to sign John Moore. The expectation is that Moore will cost around $900k, which is slightly about the 850k qualifying offer New York made. That leaves $1 mil remaining. Hayes is only going count 900k right now against the cap. At that amount, he can directly step in for JT Miller, who is at 894k, with no real impact to the cap. We will get a good chance to see how good Hayes is as assistant GM Jeff Gorton said today that Hayes likely will play in the Traverse City tournament.
If Miller makes the team, which I think he will, despite the maturity and lack of commitment issues he had last year, Hayes will play right wing on the third line with Matthew Lombardi sliding down to the fourth line and Tanner Glass likely as the extra winger. If Hayes replaces Miller, then look for Lombardi to center that line with Hayes on the right and Carl Hagelin on the left leaving the fourth line as described below and Chris Mueller as the extra forward. Of course it's possible both Hayes and Miller bounce up and down between Hartford and New York, which would probably mean Stempniak and Lombardi play the third line with Hagelin, Dominic Moore and Glass would be givens for the fourth with Jesper Fast filling one wing or you could see Oscar Lindberg on the third line with Lombardi possibly on the fourth.
The salary variance between Miller and Hayes is minimal. If Hayes is up to start the year, which is shown below, the difference is about 900k initially, which is the spread between Hayes' and Mueller' salary. I keep Glass as the fourth, since sending him would still result in a 550k impact to the cap; the difference between his $1.45 mil salary and 900k threshold for it not to count.
Forwards:
Option one:
Kreider ($2.475) - Stepan ($3.075) - Nash ($7.8) Zuccarello ($3.5) - Brassard ($5.0) - MSL ($5.625) Hagelin ($2.25) - Miller ($894k) - Hayes ($900k) Stempniak ($900k) - D. Moore ($1.5) - Lombardi ($800k)
Option two:
Kreider ($2.475) - Stepan ($3.075) - Nash ($7.8) Zuccarello ($3.5) - Brassard ($5.0) - MSL ($5.625) Hagelin ($2.25) - Miller ($894k) - Lombardi ($800k) Stempniak ($900k) - D. Moore ($1.5) - Glass ($1.45)
Defensemen:
Girardi ($5.5) - McDonagh ($4.7) Boyle ($4.5) - Staal ($3.975) J. Moore (xx) - Klein ($2.9)
Goalies:
Lundqvist ($8.5) Talbot ($562,500)
Bench:
Option one: Glass ($1.45) and Kostka ($650k) Option two: Mueller ($600k) and Kostka ($650k)
Total cap space: $69,000,000 Total cap space utilized $67,406,667 (fairly similar if option 1 or 2, 6k diff) Total cap space remaining $ 1,593,333