1) A week of wins for the Canadiens since we last spoke, so here are my observations. Thanks for your patience.
Let's start with Carey Price, who's quietly brought his game right back to Olympic-level. Sure, there was a small hiccup in Detroit, though that was more of a team thing than it was a Price thing, but aside from that, he's been Montreal's best player through five straight wins; through most of eight wins in nine games. The game in Florida was the pinnacle though, wouldn't you say?
Price was back to shutting down quality scoring chances with routine calm, and you could sense the deflation in the Panthers as he smoothly took over. This is the Carey Price that's been beyond impressive throughout the season, and this is the Carey Price the Canadiens need for the playoffs.
2) Let's think about how the week started for Pacioretty-Desharnais-Vanek, and then about how it ended.
They played a very average game in Boston (average may even be complimentary)--and they earn that qualification because all three of them managed some defensive contributions in a larger effort by the whole team that was incredibly impressive, as the Canadiens found a way to end hockey's most impressive streak at 12-straight wins.
Coming back to Montreal for a date with the Sabres, the top line's first period was abysmal. I wasn't there. I have no idea what may or may not have been said between periods, but these three flipped the switch and haven't looked back since. The neutral zone slopfest put to bed, Pacioretty, Desharnais and Vanek pushed their way up the intensity meter and instinct started to take over.
The precision and hockey sense of Vanek has been the lynchpin. He does for Desharnais what Pacioretty has never been able to do; he turns him into a scoring threat as well.
As for Pacioretty, he's taken the confidence of an already successful season and used it to finish off plays with relative ease. He remains a lethal threat from any part of the offensive zone with that shot, and he now has two players to feed him the chances.
3) So here's the concern about this line at 5-on-5:
The opposing team is going to play extremely aggressively on them in the neutral zone, because it's fairly evident that they don't want to play the dump and chase game, and though these three have the skill to work around that, they're going to give up some pucks that find their way behind Carey Price when all is said and done--and you figure that'll be most apparent against speedy teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning, who thrive on neutral zone transition.
Here's the good news: All three of these players are great turning pucks back the other way before they get into their own zone, and they can definitely counter-punch with the best of them, if and when Price makes the saves.
4) When Vanek was acquired, the obvious benefit for the team was the ripple effect. Tangibly, his addition has given Therrien the opportunity to play with different combinations without much concern about secondary scoring. There's certainly been some provision from Galchenyuk, Plekanec and Gallagher.
Rene Bourque hasn't been useless next to Daniel Briere, who finally looks comfortable playing his natural position of centre. And Brian Gionta has brought major stability to this line. These three have kicked in as well.
The fourth line currently has Lars Eller between Ryan White and Michael Bournival, because Travis Moen, Brandon Prust and Dale Weise are all hurt. Pretty good outings for line 4B.
Therrien might not have it all right, right now, but so long as he's not touching that top line, he's got a good chance that no matter what combos he uses (and he really doesn't have too much freelancing to do considering how many combos he's already used), the Habs will be just fine up front. It's very hard to envision their scoring going into freezer mode. And that's great news, because Montreal's tied with Anaheim for the eighth-best goals against average in the league at 2.45/game.
Therrien's always said you need three goals to win, and that's precisely true about his team. The Canadiens are 28-4-2 when they score three or more.
The fact that they have 15 wins and a total of 35 points in 42 games over which they've scored two or less goals tells a lot about why they've kept their heads above the playoff bubble for virtually the entire season.
5) In case you were wondering, Vanek has six goals and five assists (+6) since becoming a Montreal Canadiens 12 games ago. In that time, the Canadiens are 8-4-0, and in the eight wins, they've scored three or more in five of them.
And in those five wins with three or more goals, Vanek has had three multi-point games, and somehow didn't hit the scoresheet in the other two.
6) Arpon Basu pointed out that the Canadiens are 11-2-1 when Dale Weise plays. Pretty good record.
And as you know they're 8-4 with Vanek.
How about with Mike Weaver?
The Habs are 8-3 with him in the lineup, and when Josh Gorges gets healthy, you can rest assured Weaver's not moving out. This guy plays solid, smart hockey, and his acquisition was entirely underestimated by the media, and by fans of the team.
For a guy who admittedly doesn't believe much in paying the price on deadline day (or at that general time period of the year), Marc Bergevin has come up with gold to make his team better. For all the criticism he's taken on the short-term moves, here are three paying massive dividends at the most important time.
7) Brian Wilde, over at CTV Montreal, has been beating a drum for about 12 games about the advantage the Canadiens have in being able to offer Vanek an eighth year on a contract extension.
He's right. It's a big advantage.
And if you're fan of the Canadiens, you're of one of two minds on this dossier:
a) Keeping him means paying him between $7-8 million/8 years, and that's too much for a guy that's probably going to be half of what he is in five years.
b) Keeping him means paying him between $7-8 million/8 years, and I don't care if he's going to suck for the last three of them, because the cap will be infinitely higher by then, and he still may be able to contribute offensively. And for once, I'd like to see the shoot first, ask salary cap questions later approach a la Philly.
Damn me if I can't figure out the math, but the Habs currently have roughly $47 million invested in 15 signed players for next season, according to capgeek.com.
Forget about Eller, they have P.K. Subban set for an extension that'll pay him upwards of $8,000,000/season, Andrei Markov (who they absolutely can't afford to lose) likely coming in at about $6,000,000/season and Vanek, who has all but outright made it clear he's going to test unrestricted free agency, forcing the Canadiens to offer up closer to the $8,000,000 figure over eight years to stay (that window closes July 1st).
47+22=69 for 18 players, and 18 players don't make a full roster.
Even if you let Gionta go, you're only saving money to sign these big three. Even if you buy out Bourque, and you force Eller into another season at $1.3M he currently makes, you're not really saving much of anything.
Can you trade Briere in the offseason? He'd have to have a marvelous playoffs, and even then...
You let Murray, Bouillon and Weaver walk, but all three of them make a combined $4.1M, and they're likely to be replaced by Tinordi, Beaulieu and Pateryn who account for roughly $2.5M of that.
Save another million on letting George Parros walk too...
RFAs Weise and White? Save $1.2M combined on the qualifying offers?
Anyways, my head hurts, but you should be getting the picture right now. It's not impossible, but it's damn hard to do. The Canadiens will have a hard time rebuilding the depth they've stocked up, but at the same time, how can Bergevin not make a real try here.
It's been an exciting season, and it Spring has major potential, and it's going to be an exciting off-season, no doubt!
8) Short point: Hope all is well with Tomas Plekanec and his family. Tough to see him away from the team while his offense was just starting to pick up again. It's been reported he's on his way to rejoin the team for practice this morning, in Tampa.
9) Speaking of Tampa, I don't want to delve too deep here; I get the sense we're going to be talking a lot about their team between now and mid-April.
What are your impressions? Do you like this matchup for the Habs?
10) Last note goes to the Leafs. This free-fall--it's been catastrophic; it's beyond words. Eight straight regulations losses, and virtually all of them by the same template of falling behind early, getting badly out-shot and out-chanced, and clawing their way back to just close enough for it to be all-the-more devastating when they eventually lose.
Is there any doubt that Nonis and Carlyle are both losing their jobs when this mess spills all over?
You think lengthy contract extensions bear relevance with the deepest pockets in the league? You think it matters Nonis was signed for five years?
We've seen some profiles on Tim Leiweke and how desperately he wants to bring the Leafs back to prominence. I can't picture him holding off on changing over the management because contract extensions were given before the season. If the Leafs don't win six straight games, there's going to be a bloodbath on Bay Street, and you know what, there may be one anyways.