With the trade deadline on Tuesday, the debate is on about what teams will do at the deadline. I am on record back to November as thinking that one of the two most pressing needs for the Canes was getting an offensively capable center to pair with Jeff Skinner and create a scoring-focused 2B line. The other was a top-four defenseman.
Since then I have tossed out a few possibilities including players like David Legwand, Mikael Backlund, Matt Cullen, etc. But with the three-game losing streak coming out of the Olympic break and the current position in the standings, I think it has become very unlikely that Canes GM Jim Rutherford will invest future assets to add a player of the rental variety to push for the playoffs.
Instead, I think there are three possible kinds of moves that Rutherford will be pursuing in the next few days: One - Trading away rentals to add picks or prospects to improve system depth; Two - Making non-rental longer-term additions; Three - Trades to shake up the core.
I will address the trade deadline in either two or three parts over the next couple days covering 30 players. In part one, I will lay out my thoughts on who from the Canes might be available, for what and what seems likely. I think the most likely deals you will see for the Canes are trades of players whose contracts are up this summer making them short-term rentals. Four players could fall into this category:
Category One: Rentals whose contracts are up this summer
1: Ron Hainsey. I think he is possibly the most likely Canes player to be playing somewhere else by mid-next week. It is not that he has played poorly. It is actually the opposite. He offers a top-four capable veteran defenseman without a long-term commitment for a cap-friendly $500k-ish hit for the rest of the season. My best guess is that he ends up either in Detroit or Boston. If the Canes can generate a bidding war of sorts, he could garner a secound round pick but a third rounder would probably be reasonably fair. The only way he stays is if Rutherford decides that he is a better option (quality and price considered) than what he can get next summer or via trade to fill out the top four for next year.
2: Manny Malhotra. His value is not incredibly high, but he would be a great depth addition especially for a team that needs depth at center, on the power play or in the faceoff circle.
3: Mike Komisarek. My hunch is that he was in the lineup Saturday for exactly this reason. It would be a nice gesture by Rutherford to get Komisarek into the playoff hunt as a small reward for being a good teammate this year despite never becoming a lineup regular. His return would be only a late round (fifth to seventh) draft pick. For a team short on blue line depth and with room to fit him in their 23-man roster, he would be deep blue line depth with experience.
4: Radek Dvorak. See: Komisarek. Defensemen with any kind of experience tend to have some value, forwards not as much. Dvorak would obviously be available, but it is a low probability that there would be a taker.
Category Two: Young players who might have some value.
5, 6, 7, 8: Nathan Gerbe, Jiri Tlusty, Riley Nash, and Drayson Bowman.
Tlusty, Bowman and Gerbe are restricted free agents this summer which means the Canes have the rights to re-sign them this summer. Nash is actually signed for one more season. I think the story with this set of players goes like this:
- It is not like these players are untouchable by any means. - But with a system that is too light on NHL-ready prospects, the Canes will need to fill some number (three?) of bottom-six forward slots again next season with some of these players. - The Canes will need their money to fix bigger problems (top half of the roster holes). - So these players are needed depth.
The end result is that I do not see any of these players traded for the sake of doing a deal or to collect a draft pick. I think they are all possible pieces if the Canes try to do a bigger trade to add a longer-term top-four defenseman or top-six forward. Otherwise, they stay.
Category Three: Big contract players to shake things up a bit.
9: Tuomo Ruutu. He has been rumored to be available on and off for a few months. He has actually been playing better of late, but I have to imagine that he is available for any kind of decent return especially if it includes salary savings. This said, I do not think it is anything close to a sure thing that he is gone in the next few days. With most teams up against the salary cap and focused on 2013-14, I think most of the heavier action will focus on rental players. With two more years on his contract at $5 million per year, Ruutu is a bigger commitment and therefore maybe more likely (if at all) to be dealt this summer when everyone picks up more salary cap head room and begins to work on the future.
10: Cam Ward. I do not think he is moveable right now. No team pushing for the playoffs would want anything to do with a struggling goalie hoping he instantly rediscovers his game. And of the teams that might need goalie help for next season and going forward, they are more likely to shop the free agent market first to see if they can add what they want without having to trade assets, take a big contract and hope for a rebound in the process.
Category Four: The special case in net
11: Anton Khudobin. In my recap from the Buffalo loss a few days ago, I laid out my reasoning for why I did not think Khudobin would play in a Canes uniform next season. With Ward still struggling to find his way, my guess is that Rutherford would be willing to pay Khudobin most, if not all, of what he will be worth on the open market next summer to keep him. I put that in a $2.5-3.5 million range (think Ben Bishop) range. It would put the Canes at nearly $10 million in net, but I am not sure Rutherford has any other choice.
But per my previous blog, my hunch is that Khudobin will want to go to a team where he is the clear No. 1 goalie. So the logical progression is that Rutherford is right now trying to negotiate an extension. If Khudobinβs agent indicates that he wants to try the open market next summer, then I think you at least consider trading him if you can get a decent return.
It seems like if he can be re-signed and that is what Rutherford wants to do, you try to do it now to see if the math works. If not, I think he could become available.
But as good as he has been for the Canes he is still a playoff-inexperienced backup for the teams looking at the playoffs and is also part of a pool that includes a few other options. Because of that, the return could be low enough that it just makes sense to keep him for the rest of the season and then see where things go.
From this set of players, my wild guess for what happens is:
1-- Hainsey to Boston, Detroit or similar for a second or third round pick. 2-- Komisarek to (somewhere) for a sixth round pick. 3-- None of Gerbe, Nash, Bowman, Tlusty, Dwyer, go anywhere unless it is a 1-for-1 for another roster player (think big and physical) or as a small piece of a bigger deal (think top-four defenseman). 4-- Neither of Ward or Ruutu (who are seemingly the two most likely higher-end non-rentals to be moved) go anywhere.
In part two, I will spell out a few categories of targets for longer-term additions and also name names.
What say you Canes fans? --Do you agree with my general starting point that the Canes are now rental sellers not buyers? --Do you think there is any chance that the Girardi signing for $5.5M and the potential for crazy bidding wars this summer could actually convince Rutherford to re-up with Hainsey rather than risking what could be a pricey market next summer? Or do you think he leaves? --Do you think a Ruutu trade is inevitable after the buildup since December, or do you think that I am right that he is safer than many might think?
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