Over the past few days, I have worked through the 2014 NHL trade deadline for the Canes: --Part 1: Detailed Canes players who could be on the move HERE. --Part 2: Addressed possible long-term additions for the Canes blue line HERE. --Part 3: Discussed Canes’ needs at forward and named a couple options HERE.
And along the way I added a couple short blogs on specific points including the Jordan Staal thing, Anton Khudobin’s new contract and what it could mean for Cam Ward, and Ron Hainsey’s likely value on the open market as a playoff push rental.
So for part 4, I will take my shot at playing Canes GM for Wednesday’s trade deadline day:
General direction: I would not just completely blow it up. As disappointing as things are right now, I do not think a complete rebuild is in order. The Canes do need to somehow fill a few holes and get deeper, but I just do not see starting over as a better route back to the playoffs.
Buyer or seller: With Tuesday's win to salvage something from the 5-game road trip, the Canes pulled to within 6 points of a playoff spot with 20 games to go. The lead is not insurmountable, but with a tough schedule and a bunch of teams to leapfrog chances are slim. I think this unfortunately forces a middle ground. On the 1 hand, I would not quit on the team/fans/season by being all-out sellers, but on the other hand, I would not pour a bunch of future assets into rental trades either. Best might be just to mostly let this season play out and shop for longer-term help today.
Check options for cost-cutting: While I think that Ward could ultimately rebound, I am right where I was in my blog on December 2. His $6M+ can be better utilized adding a decent backup goalie and still leaving $4M+ to fill other needs. On January 20, I detailed my thoughts on Ruutu HERE. The short version is that $5M is just too much risk for a player whose production is a 20ish-point pace but “might… rebound next year. There were probably a dozen “might rebound… players available this summer (Raymond, Boyes, Gerbe, etc.) mostly in a $1-2M price range. If I could get out of Ruutu’s contract in full, get something in return and get a big chunk of his $5M to put to use this summer, I would take the $ and flexibility over Ruutu’s contract. For Ward, I would be happy just to get out of the contract in full without eating any of it. It is unfortunately about cost savings at this point. For Ruutu, the goal would be to get a top 9 forward with a lower ceiling but also a lower salary back. For both, I would not feed the sharks if the only offers are deals require the Canes to eat a big chunk of salary and still get little in return. In that case, I would keep both players.
My shopping list: I would be looking to add 3 things of the non-rental variety: 1) A top 4 defenseman, ideally 1 that can improve the transition offense; 2) A good 2-way forward who could complement Jordan Staal and a puck possession game and be in the neighborhood of 50 points; 3) A complementary 3rd-line center who can play at Skinner’s pace and help create scoring chances.
Player I would go after and consider spending a little too much: Christian Ehrhoff. His contract has 4 years at a very reasonable $3.75M followed by 4 more at $1M per year (reasonably likely he would retire during this stretch but otherwise he is a bargain even in a depth role at 35+). He brings an every situation top 4 defenseman who could be the offensive catalyst to get Tlusty/EStaal/Semin playing off the rush when paired with either top 4 D pairing. Something like a 1st round pick + Riley Nash + John-Michael Liles could do it. Buffalo gets a 1st round pick that is better than any of the playoff contenders can offer. Buffalo gets a young roster forward who can play now and if it works out still be around when the rebuild takes form. Buffalo gets an experienced NHL defenseman with character who can serve as a placeholder while the rebuild takes form. The Sabres also needs to take back some salary at some point to make the minimum next season, so Liles helps in that regard. I realize that giving up what looks like a high 1st round pick is a high price to pay for anything, but the Canes are not rebuilding, and they need help on the blue line. In making Liles part of the deal, the Canes also manage to add a top 4 defenseman without adding any significant salary which is quite a feat. Re-sign or help restock the system: Ron Hainsey is the player I go back and forth on the most. Andrew MacDonald went for a 2nd, a 3rd and a modest prospect today. Hainsey’s value should be similar maybe a little less. If the return was a decent 2nd round pick plus something else it is hard to pass up that kind of help restocking the depleted farm system. But as I said above, I would not completely quit on this season which means that Hainsey stays. I also think there is a way for the Canes can have their cake and eat it too. If Hainsey can be re-signed for 1 or 2 years at $3M or less without a no-trade clause, the Canes would have the option of keeping him if it made sense or probably getting a return similar to the trade deadline value over the summer when a few teams came up a defenseman short and looked to the trade market.
A few quick hitters:
Most likely to leave: Justin Peters.
Players likely to be rumored/mentioned most but actually not get traded: Tuomo Ruutu and Cam Ward (because of contract issues).
My short shopping list: Christian Ehrhoff, Keith Yandle, Drew Stafford, Cody Franson.
Potential big surprise: Jeff Skinner.
What say you Canes fans? --Does Tuesday's win change things at all? --Who do you want to add? --Who do you think we will add? --Will Rutherford collect what he can for all the players who are unrestricted free agents this summer? --Will any big name Canes be dealt?
I am tied up most of the morning but hope to emerge around lunchtime to track and discuss the Canes trade deadline.
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