When the Canes take home ice at PNC Arena tonight, it will be just 1 day short of a full month since the last home game on February 8. With the 1-2 fade in 3 home games before the Olympic break and the brutal 1-4 road trip following it, the Canes are officially up to do or die, must win and all the other clichés - except they are not just clichés but reality.
Tonight's opponent, the New York Rangers, sits in the 3rd spot in the Metro Division in 1 of the last playoff spots that the Canes are closest to. The Hurricanes are a big 7 points behind New York, but with tonight's game and an NHL schedule monkey special that sees them leave and return to play here again Tuesday, there are 4 points to be gained quickly with 2 wins.
And I think that, coupled with a win in New Jersey, is about what it takes for the Canes to claw their way back to the fringe of the playoff chase and get high enough up to start reaching for the ankles of the teams in front of them. The margin for error is down to zero. Even a single loss, like tonight, pushes the Canes to 9 points back and burns through another of the limited games left and maybe seals the coffin for 2013-14.
It is with that must-win, do or die, pressure cooker of an atmosphere that I offer tonight's game keys:
1) Play desperate not fearful. As bad as the recent road trip was in terms of results, the level of play was actually not that bad (except for the abysmal power play which impossibly found a way to take another step backward by giving up shorthanded goals and continued struggles to get even adequate goaltending from anyone not named Anton in 2014). The key is to bring that same level of play and try to add just 1 more notch of desperation on the dial.
If the Canes show up tonight a bit hesitant, cautious and trying to feel their way into a big game, I think I toss what little hope I have left over the balcony at the 1st TV timeout on the way to Twisted Waffle and focus on that until it is gone. If instead, the team comes out with fire, intensity and desperation, I lean forward in my seat and despite the fact that it might end badly give the team a chance and find 1 more round of hope.
2) Top guns need to stay the course and find a way. The remaining schedule features a number of games against good teams and many more against decent teams that can button down a game and try to play you to a 2-1 final in the wrong direction. Sure there will be games in which the easy and pretty goals flow and can be ridden to a win, but if those are the only games the Canes win, it will be about 3-4 wins short. The key is for players like Eric Staal, Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner to stay on task defensively (#53), not start taking frustration penalties when it doesn't work (#12) and find a way to score when it is not easy.
3) Attention to detail. The 2013-14 season has really come full circle. Early in the season, the Canes struggled mightily on offense but found a completely different gear in terms of defense and attention to detail that was enough to win points in the standings. More recently, the defense has been very up and down. This time of year, if you give a playoff-hunting team 2 or sometimes even 1 extra unearned goal, that is the difference in a close hard-fought game. The Canes need to find a run of defensive soundness right about now.
In addition to all that is on the line standings-wise, there are also 2 things to watch roster-wise. Andrei Loktionov who came over in the trade for Tuomo Ruutu will make his Canes debut. His game is that of a skilled, offensive/playmaking center with decent wheels and pace. Best guess is that he will start on the 4th line, but depending how the game plays out, I think he could be a decent complement for Jeff Skinner's pace and offensive game. He will certainly also be the latest attempt to find a magical elixir to jump start the dead power play.
The game will also see the return of Ryan Murphy. If I get a chance, I hope to write up a more detailed version of where he needs to round out his game (which for a 20-year-old making a big jump from juniors to the NHL I really liked early in the season), but most of it is this:
--Can he quickly learn how to move the puck not just carry it? As breathtaking as his end-to-end rushes are, he needs to learn to mix this with skating to create passing lanes to advance the puck and then follow it. The play where he blows by the defense but also his forwards and enters the zone 1v2, gets funneled wide and then has a backchecking forward take away the pass behind him to a forward entering late on the same side mostly leads to odd angle shots with no traffic. The 1-man rush on occasion is okay and keeps the defense honest, but if he can more regularly use his speed to beat the 1st layer of defense, back up the defenders at the blue line and get the puck ahead to a forward in stride, the Canes get to enter the zone 2-3 wide with Murphy catching up quick to be a trailer against defensemen who cannot stand up at the blue line because of the speed. At this point, you get exactly what you want off the rush which is numbers with speed and big gaps to work with.
--Can he improve defending 1-on-1 with a player with the puck in front of him. I thought Ryan Murphy was very good defending coming back or trying to close a gap skating forward which is not surprising given his raw speed. And with the combination of his hip check and ability to turn and close, he was okay standing up 1v1 at the blue line. But where he struggled at times was 1v1 from the top of the circles in. Skilled NHL forwards regularly took advantage of him in this spot and beat him cleanly too many times. He needs to improve his ability at doing the basics of staying in front of players with the puck and also get better at figuring out how to play angles to force them to the least dangerous direction (or at least a single direction so the number of options the goalie has to defense is something less than "everything") and then close to force a shot.
--Finally, he has all of the tools to be a very good NHL power play quarterback with raw speed but also vision of the ice on the rush to gain entry, a strong shot and some playmaking ability. In his fall stint manning the point of the power play, I thought he looked okay. He did not look out of place or unable to handle the speed of the game. But he did not produce much and did not look capable of slowing the game down enough yet to find the pass out of the expected order that creates defensive breakdowns and/or scoring chances. But then we saw the Canes power play continue to struggle (even more actually) after Murphy left, so perhaps my evaluation of Murphy as 'okay' was really the best possible with a struggling unit/system. But that said, I think the next step for him on the power play is to transition from being able to handle the puck and move it at speed at the point (mostly next in the passing line) to being able to slow things down mentally, read situations and find seams/holes that create shooting lanes and the unexpected (not next in passing line) passes that lead directly to prime scoring chances.
To be clear, it is not that it is fair to expect that in after a couple months in the AHL that he has perfected everything. He is 20 years old, and you need to give him time. But more so I am looking for indications that he is making strides in terms of how he plays. Do we see him looking to move the puck forward a bit more off the rush? 1v1 on defense against the puck, does he at least begin to steer the opponent a certain direction to decrease options and take away half of the angles that his goalie has to play (when you give the middle with too much gap and the chance to shoot from anywhere)? I was on record before the season started as thinking that Ryan Murphy would need 2-3 years in the AHL before being NHL ready. I was incredibly impressed with his play at the NHL level in the fall, but the key for him is not just trying to play a slightly better version of his juniors game against lesser competition but rather making some adjustments/improvements for the NHL level. If he does that, his ceiling is that of a top 4 offensive defenseman. If he does not, his ceiling looks more like that of a decent 3rd pairing offensive defenseman who always leaves you wanting more. Again, some patience is in order, but today represents the 1st look at if/how he is able to learn, adapt and make minor changes to reach the higher level.
In other news, 2013-14 represents the 1st season with Tampa and Carolina in different divisions which kindly presented a decrease in Martin St. Louis sightings for Canes fans. He has been perhaps the ultimate Canes killer over the years. But the combination of the trade deadline and the NHL schedule monkey will now see him play against the Canes a whopping (and unfair) 6 times this season, 3 already done with Tampa and now 3 more in short order with the New York Rangers. With the Canes propensity to give up 1st goals, it seems horribly likely that we will hear "That is Martin St. Louis' 1st goal as a Ranger" tonight. As long as the Canes win, I guess we can live with it.
What say you Canes fans? --Can you muster another round of hope for the 2013-14 season, or are you just too worn out to try? --Can the Canes win 3 straight against teams ahead of them in the Metro to climb back to the bottom of the playoff chase fray? --Or is it time to just enjoy watching Ryan Murphy fly up the ice and dream about Canes hockey future?
Puck drops a few minutes after 7pm in Raleigh.
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