If you missed my recap from the Canes Tuesday loss against Winnipeg, you can read it in full HERE. The short version is that as disappointing as the results were, it was not a horrible game effort or quality-wise. The Canes had chances to score another goal or 2, and I think I would say that they were the better team overall, though not by a wide margin. The biggest negative was giving up a goal with a minute left to give up a point in the standings.
Canes bits:
1) If I could choose only 1 player to get 2 ½ weeks off for the Olympic break, it would unfortunately be Justin Faulk. He and Sekera had a real rough game in the Tampa loss a few weeks back, and Faulk has had some rough times since. I think that the incredibly strong play of Sekera has actually masked Faulk’s recent struggles to some degree. I first called out the possible fatigue issue after the Jan 27 Columbus game. I continue to think much of his current struggles are directly related to just having “dead legs… right now and not skating well. He was beaten for paths directly to the net twice again yesterday. This has been happening with some regularity of late which is out of character for Faulk when he is playing well.
2) While John-Michael Liles does bring some of the looseness of the stereotypical puck-moving defenseman, 1 thing I have noticed is that he has the good tendency to make mistakes in front of him and not behind him. When he turns the puck over it tends to be on the longer up-ice passes (often diagonal/cross ice). While any turnover gains a grumble from fans, this style of play is sort of a mixed bag. First, by pushing aggressively forward at least when a mistake happens there are 2 defensemen in position. It is a change of possession but not automatically a scoring chance against. Second, even failed attempts to push the puck up the ice quickly back up the defense. Think about this. If you go into your Canes memory bank and picture what a bad Liles play looks like, can you even picture him being hemmed in his own end? No. It just does not happen. It is more the variety where he starts up the ice and occasionally flings a low-percentage pass that gets picked off. Ideally all of the passes connect, but even if they do not, Liles’ turnovers have much more so been the marginal variety than the kind that cost goals.
3) What to do in net this weekend? I had a small debate with a couple people on Twitter about this yesterday. In a normal rotation, the Canes would split the back-to-back starts this weekend between its 2 goalies, but I am not sure I would go this way.
The case for getting Ward a start is admittedly a strong 1: --A fresh goalie could prove better than 1 who played the night before. --At some point Ward does need to get into the mix and contribute with a busy after-break schedule with a number of back-to-backs. --It would be good for Ward to head into the break with a game under his belt and some confidence.
But I would not automatically give Ward a start this weekend. First and foremost, points are precious right now, and I think the good version of Khudobin gives the Canes the best chance to win right now. He will need to be spelled physically down the stretch to avoid hitting a wall, but that time is not right now. After the busy 5 games in 7 days, the team has had a light schedule of single games spaced out by 2 days off, 3 days off and then 2 days off before the final back-to-back. And of course waiting after this weekend is a 2 ½ week break. Unless Khudobin strangely seems tired after Friday’s game, there is no rest/physical reason to give him Saturday off. The other case for starting Ward is simply the confidence and rhythm thing. Even if Khudobin remains the starter throughout the rest of the season, Ward will need to start at least 5-6 games down the stretch with the busy schedule. So he does need to enter the mix and find a decent level of play at some point. But I question the value of pushing that to before the break. Whatever kind of rhythm, comfort level, etc. can be gained in 1 game will be given back over the 2 ½ week layoff anyway. Why not just start fresh in March? What about the confidence thing? That is a double-edged sword. If Ward plays, plays well and wins, I acknowledge that there could be a gain in terms of confidence/comfort level. But what if he does not play well and loses? The schedule then affords 2 ½ weeks to sit and stew on that 1 start before getting a chance to get back on the horse.
What I would do is this: 1-I would start Khudobin Friday. He is the best/safest chance to win another important 2 points. 2-If Khudobin plays well Friday and passes an “are you ready to go again?… query on Saturday morning, I would come right back to him. Ward might not be happy about it, but at the same time you can point at the schedule for soon after the break and all but guarantee him a start in the back-to-back set on March 1 and 2. 3-If Khudobin does not play particularly well Friday, I then go to Ward.
I like the happy story in which Ward gets a start and builds early momentum for after the break as much as anyone, and I think it could happen. But goalie transitions back into lineup bring a lot of uncertainty. With no rest/physical issue heading into a long break, I just refuse to take even small risks that in any way jeopardize the chance to earn points in the standings.
4) The Canes continue to need more ugly goals. The loss in Montreal last week was the most striking example of what offensive zone time hockey can/should look like. The down on their luck and desperate Habs very regularly sent at least 1 if not 2 bodies to the front of the net and threw pucks to the crease. When the Canes get desperate it tends to look much more like players shooting the puck as much as they can from anywhere. The shooting the puck part in itself is not bad, but the part where all 3 forwards are positioning themselves to do that versus crashing the net is. For as many times as Alexander Semin through the puck at the net in Tuesday’s loss, I think 1 (breaking in on net uncontested when he missed high) of those chances was truly dangerous. It is not that the other shots were bad decisions by Semin. Without any better options, the simple play to shoot is generally the right 1, and even in non-dangerous situations Semin is good enough that he will still beat the goalie occasionally. But for the vast majority of those shots Tlusty and EStaal seemed to be doing some combination of setting up for a possible pass to take their own low-percentage/outside the defensive perimeter shot or even less. When the team gets the puck on a forward’s stick with control and at least a point outlet if he needs help, the natural tendency needs to be to go to the paint much more often. That is the path to finding enough scoring on days when the offense is not clicking.
What say you Canes fans? --What would you do in net this weekend? --Does anyone else sense fatigue issues in Faulk’s game recently? --Is the crashing the net thing coachable, or does the team just lack the personnel for it? --With 3-4 points this weekend, the Canes will come out of the break clearly in the playoff hunt? Will that be a good enough starting point with a gauntlet of a schedule awaiting (16/25 on road, 5 back-to-backs, Pit/Bos/Ana/SJ/LA/Chi/Det all on road)? Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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