Things have settled in LA Kings land slightly.
The shock of being out has worn off for most, and mentally we can all start moving more into offseason mode. Some did, in fact, go a little harder into off-season mode than others already.
With that in mind the Kings do have a very serious off-season in front of them with plenty of questions regarding personnel and overall style. While the Kings should not depart from their successful playstyle, considering they only missed by a few points, they are losing some key components to that style.
One such player is Justin Williams. He is the most prominent unrestricted free agent the Kings have up for contract come July 1st. He has been in Los Angeles for six and a half seasons, compiling two cups, a Conn Smythe, and 266 points in his 427 games in the Black and Silver.
The 33-year old Williams, who will be 34 to start the 2015-16 season, is coming off of a four-year contract where he was making $3.65MM AAV a season. Although he has seen himself decline in overall numbers for a few years now, at that amount it is hard to see Williams as anything other than a bargain. He has been a bargain for the Kings ever since he got here and got healthy and he would arguably continue to be a bargain at the number for a few more years potentially.
He was one of the highest Goals Above Replacement (GAR) players for the Kings last season, being almost 15 goals above a replacement player. While his dCorsi has been on the backslide since about 2011-12, he is still a fairly impactful player as well with the minutes he has given. He has also been one of the best teammates for Anze Kopitar, going back three seasons. Last year was no different. Williams and Kopitar together held a very strong 60% Goals For Percentage, combined with a 66.11 Corsi For per 60 rating. Kopitar also scored at a rate much higher than his average when paired up with Williams. All of those numbers were the highest of any winger not named, surprisingly, Trevor Lewis.
Strictly from a standard eye test standpoint, Williams is a semi-embodiment of the Kings. He does not score overly pretty goals, but he is a worker. He is your classic blue-collar winger, he is good at both ends of the ice, and he is not afraid to get to the dirty areas. You can see that based on his 2014-15 shot rate.
Williams, when paired up with Kopitar, basically does what we wish Dustin Brown would do. Get to the front of the net, create havoc, look for rebounds and second and third chances.
These are all great things. Then you look at his price tag of three million and change and thing, "Why not re-sign him?"
Here comes the elephant(s) in the room.
While the Kings would be losing a valuable depth forward and a potentially 35-40 points of scoring, Williams has been on the decline. He has been on the decline in some very key areas which makes Kings hockey what it is.
Just about everything with No. 14 spiked in 2012-13.
Since then he has still been a very good player, but there is a trend here that is worrisome if anyone is expecting a long term sustainability. More likely than not, Williams will be nothing more than a fringe, replacement level player in two years. That is not to say it is outside of the realm of possibilities that he remains a good player for longer than that, but if you were playing the odds, you would probably guess that the man they call "Stick" has seen the best of his playing days.
But two to three years is not THAT long. Maybe the Kings take a swing at that. After all, they do have several skillful wingers in the system like Adrian Kempe and Valentin Zykov, none of which have any pro experience and would likely need a year or two in the AHL. Here is the second elephant in the room: The money.
While reports initially surfaced back around December that the NHL salary cap may rise to $73-million dollars for 2015-16, that has turned downward just a bit. In fact, it may not rise from the current $69-million dollar figure.
The Kings will have around $64MM dollars tied up to start next season, which includes Mike Richards and Slava Voynov's contracts. While it is plausible that the Kings are exonerated from their financial obligations to both players via buyout and legal ramifications come July 1st, they are still technically on the books as it stands. With roughly $5 million dollars to play with, the Kings have to re-sign their burgeoning young RFA goal-scorer, Tyler Toffoli. The Kings also have Martin Jones, Nick Shore, and Andy Andreoff to worry about in terms of RFAs. All of those players realistically fit into the Kings 2015-16 opening night lineup. With Jarret Stoll more than likely not coming back, Nick Shore could very well man the Kings 3 or 4C position with a combination of Mike Richards, Trevor Lewis, or Andreoff picking up the other C spot.
The other two unrestricted free agents of note are Justin Williams and Andrej Sekera. While the Kings could afford to let a winger like Williams go, Sekera would be a hard shoe to fill. Especially if things go south with Slava Voynov. If neither Sekera or Voynov are on the roster next season the Kings are looking at a defensive group that includes: Muzzin, Doughty, McNabb, Martinez, Greene, Forbort? Miller? UFA Dman? The return of McBain?
Basically, the Kings are tight on money and they have to allocate properly. As far as interest from the team goes, signing someone like Andrej Sekera may arguably be the more pressing need versus Justin Williams.
Looking at it from Williams perspective also can be a little dicey for the Kings. What would he be willing to accept in terms of dollar amount? What about term? At his age is a two-three year contract really going to do it? He is a bargain at 3.5, sure, but a team trying to reach the cap floor may be willing to overpay for him. A young team like Florida, Arizona, or even Edmonton might be very willing to throw the extra incentive of money and term to a guy like Williams. He has the experience of a champion, and still has some pretty strong numbers as a depth player. Those factors could make him a flight risk even if the Kings did want to bring him back.
There is a cruel truth here. The Salary Cap Era stops for no one. Loyalty to players can handcuff and punish GMs. The open market will forever inflate contracts and there is always somewhere you could play for more. Hockey "Mercenaries" like Jaromir Jagr have made a great twilight part of their career out of that.
While the Kings still very well could pull some strings and bring 14 back, it looks ominous at this point.
He certainly has his place in LA Kings history, but for a number of understandable reasons he unfortunately may not retire as one. To quote Stringerbell from The Wire, "It's just business."
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