UPDATE 11:52 AM - Craig Anderson will start for the Senators in place of Andrew Hammond. Chris Neil in for Alex Chiasson
You are not in trouble in a playoff series until you lose at home.
It is a very overused cliche and not one that I really buy into much any more, but it is something the Senators and their fans have to grasp onto as they come home down 2-0 after Montreal held serve at the Bell Centre.
I don't envy the decision Dave Cameron has to make this morning, because there are so many factors at play while he decides between Andrew Hammond and Craig Anderson. Sure, Hammond can't be blamed for both losses, and in game 2 he was the reason the Senators were still in the game, but 2 weak goals against are also a big reason why they lost the game. And that is pretty much exactly how Hammond assessed his own game yesterday:
Good at times. Ultimately it basically rests on the goals you do allow. I'm not real happy with some of them that have gone in. You just need to keep giving your team a chance to win. I think I'm a lot like the team. We haven't played a full 60 minutes, and if you look at my game a little closer maybe you could say the same about myself because there has been a little bit of, I guess, brain farts there and pucks have found their way in that maybe I should have.
That Hammond quote comes from NHL.com, and sums up the Senators first two games. Moreso in Game 1 than Game 2, the Senators perhaps deserved a better fate and you could argue they should be coming home with a split. But the fact is that they couldn't take advantage of the absence of Max Pacioretty and P.K. Subban (for half the game) in Game 1 and the Habs are full credit for winning their games on home ice.
But enough looking back, and it is time to focus on home ice for the Senators. The decision facing Cameron must come now, because if he decides to roll with Hammond, then barring injury it is his series to win or lose. It doesn't make sense to make the switch down 3-0, because by then it is too late. If you go with Anderson tonight and he can't get the job done you can still come back with Hammond and hope for the magical miracle.
Whatever decision he makes, either he will be lauded as a genius if it works, or will be open for a ton of second-guessing and hindsight criticism if it doesn't. And in the end, while the decision is a big one, there is a real chance might not even make a difference.
The big reason for the run the Senators went on in front of Hammond was the way the team came together and played in front of him. That hasn't carried over to this series, and Hammond has been exposed at times. However many of the 7 goals against in 2 games you classify as "weak" or "soft" (personally I would say 3), the fact is that they are there. In the playoffs it doesn't matter if you make 50 saves if the 51st and deciding shot is a softie and costs you the game.
That being said, if your goalie does make 50 saves, you hope your team rewards him and doesn't put him in the position to make that 51st shot matter. Hammond has faced more shots than any goalie, and only the Hawks as a team have allowed more shots than the Senators, through 2 playoff games. So, even with his struggles, the blame can't be leveled at Hammond alone, because he was the major reason that game 2 was allowed to get to overtime.
As for Anderson, you can bet he is chomping at the bit to get back into action, but the fact is he has played just 4 games in the past 3 months. He won't be tired, but will he be rusty? Two of those 4 games resulted in third period meltdowns where the Senators gave up 3 goal leads to force extra time. But one thing about Anderson is that he has shown the ability to go on a hot streak at any time. Whether he can do that from a standing start is the question.
The fact is that the play in front of the goaltender hasn't been very good (or at least not consistent enough) and making the switch at this point of a playoff series might be akin to switching a goalie in the middle of a regular season game. It sends a message to the rest of the team, albeit one that could be taken two entirely different ways: A) that their play has forced the change and every guy has to look in the mirror and step their own game up because "if I could bench 18 skaters instead, I would"; or B) it makes Hammond the scapegoat and nothing else changes. If he does make the switch, Cameron has to get the point across pre-game that the reason is A) and certainly not B), and that they need to rally around Anderson like they did Hammond for the last two months.
It is the toughest decision Cameron has faced in his brief tenure as head coach, and one that I am glad I am not making. But if the team doesn't play better in front of the goalie, it doesn't really matter who is in net.
It is not the only decision Cameron faces, however. The Senators need more from almost everyone in the lineup, with few exceptions. Does he switch up his lineup and juggle the Zibanejad and Legwand lines, because neither has done a whole lot? How can he get Bobby Ryan going? Move him down to the 4th line and move Mike Hoffman up? Or reunite Zibanejad-Hoffman-Ryan by moving Milan Michalek down? Do you bring in Jared Cowen for Eric Gryba, who has struggled in the series and whose flubbed pass attempt led to the OT winner in game 2?
Montreal will come into this one with confidence knowing that they have a stranglehold in the series and that Carey Price has to win just 2 of 5 games. He hasn't exactly been at Vezina Trophy level in this series so far either, but has 2 W's beside his name and in the playoffs that is all that matters. Beating him 4 times in 5 games is a nearly impossible task, but if the Senators look at it that way they are sunk. They need to focus on one game, beating Price and the Canadiens once, and that is tonight. Then it starts all over again on Wednesday. That is the mentality they need to have.
I don't think either team has played their best game or a complete game yet. There is still a lot of hockey to be played and whichever team elevates their play quicker can still come away with a series win. But the Senators need to do that tonight.
Perhaps it is another overused cliche, but this one is for real - You can only play one game at a time.