If you missed it, yesterday in part 1, I took a shot at building out the Canes top 2 lines for 2015-16 with existing signed players and identifying holes.
You can find that HERE.
The short version is:
1) EStaal, JStaal, Semin are historically legitimate top 6 forwards. They were not in 2014-15. They must step it up for the Canes to improve significantly.
2) I listed Skinner, Lindholm, Rask and Nestrasil as the next tier. I do not think any were all-season top 6 forwards in 2014-15 for reasons detailed in the blog. Any of these players would need to take a step up in some way to be part of the legitimate 2nd 3 that the Canes need. Ideally what will happen is that 1-2 of these players will take a step forward and at least 2 will be left to build a decent 3rd line.
That gets to today's topic which is building out the bottom 6 forwards. In an ideal world, the Canes would be able to force something like Skinner/Rask/Lindholm down to the 3rd line and the group would continue to grow together providing the depth that pretty much all of the good teams in the NHL have today. And there would be plenty of options left to build a 4th line including simply re-signing Patrick Dwyer and reuniting a 4th line that represented 1/2 of the team's stellar penalty killing and 2/3 of a 4th line that was incredibly good from January on.
Player by player I see it like this:
--Riley Nash. He was very good to start the season but faded to almost nothing down the stretch. He is borderline a serviceable 3rd line center (but light on scoring) and with an increase role playing PK maybe fits better as a 4th-line center where scoring production is less of an issue. But the Canes committed to Jay McClement in this slot.
--Nathan Gerbe. He is a prototypical 4th-line energy player. He plays every shift like he is shot out of a cannon and importantly can find that level of effort even on nights when no one else can. He is not a true fighting ruffian, but those are leaving the NHL anyway, so his peskiness is enough. And for 4th line duty his streaky scoring and ability to play on a higher line as a fill in is enough. Shorter version: He is a great 4th line player but overslotted for a playoff caliber team when he rises too far up the depth chart.
--Brad Malone. He is a good #12/#13 forward. He looked like a miss during the 1st half of the year, but once the Canes became healthier and he was slotted into the intended 4th line, he looked like the current day NHL version of big, mean and physical. He could play a regular shift, score enough and handle the rough stuff when needed.
--Jay McClement. He had a very good year in his role once he fell to that slot on the roster. He was a key part of a good penalty kill, and good in the faceoff circle and his own end such that he and his line were not in over their heads taking defensive zone draws. He anchors both the 4th line and the penalty kill which are 2 secondary but important roles.
--Chris Terry. He is above average at the NHL level on the power play, in the shootout and offensively for a bottom tier forward. It is important to note that his all-around game improved enough to earn him the trust and ice time to show this. While it might or might not be enough to earn him a regular slot, I think it makes him valuable depth especially if GM Ron Francis can broker 1 more 2-way deal that derisks whether he sticks at the NHL level or not. Terry would be a great option to have around for if the power play sputters or if you have injuries to offensive players and want to insert offense into the lineup not a defense-only depth forward.
--Patrick Dwyer. (not currently signed) Dwyer is a 4th-linish role player who is too limited scoring/skill set-wise to play higher at least on a good team. In that sense he seems replaceable, but I would re-sign Dwyer to a 1 year deal for 3 reasons. First, the price should be right. He made $900,000 last year. I would guess that something like $750-800k for 1 year should get it done. Second, the Canes just do not have a lot of young depth likely to seize this slot. Third and most importantly, the 4th line that he played on was incredibly good the 2nd half of the year and so was the penalty kill until a few players were traded away. For a small $ commitment, I would not mess with a couple of the few things that worked real well for the Canes last season.
So if I slot the Canes in an ideal world, it goes like this:
EStaal/JStaal/ (playmaking wing--think Ray Whitney type) Nestrasil (in Tlusty type role)/ (good 2-way C who can match Semin's pace) /Semin Skinner/Rask/Lindholm (holy cow! We are suddenly deep offensively!) Malone or Gerbe / McClement / Dwyer or Nash Terry extra or trying to win 3rd line wing slot
More realistically, I hope that the Canes can somehow add 1 top 6 forward and that a couple of the young 3rd-liners rise up. More realistic considering budget would be something like EStaal/JStaal/Lindholm Nestrasil/______/Semin Skinner/Rask/Gerbe or Nash or ______ Malone/McClement/Dwyer Terry extra or trying to win 3rd line wing slot
I am on record as willing to trade Jeff Skinner to add a comparable age and ability defenseman. If the Canes do re-sign Dwyer, I would consider packing Nash as part of a trade. I just do not see him being an every night 3rd line player; Rask seems to have seized a center slot; McClement is fixed for 2 years in the C4 slot. The opening for him is if the Canes are unable to sign a 2nd line center and choose to play EStaal/JStaal again in which case Nash and Rask become C2 and C3. When it is all said and done, Gerbe will probably need to rise into a top 9 forward slot.
I will wait for closer to the draft weekend and free agent frenzy to name names, but at forward I would be willing to try it if Francis could add 2nd-line type forward. Ideal would be a player who could play wing or center, so Peters has some ability to pair or unpair the Staals without having to change all of the top 3 lines. Then I would consider shopping the bargain bin for 1 more inexpensive forward who is scoring capable and can provide some offensive depth.
What say you Canes fans? Is it really possible that the Canes can improve enough at forward with only 1 addition (basically replacing Tlusty) and hoping that the youth continue to grow and the 3 big guns rebound? Do you agree that Dwyer is a safe re-signing just because of his significant role on 2 of the few things (PK and 4th line) that were not broken in 2014-15?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!