In terms of trying to figure out what it would take for the Canes to compete for a playoff spot in 2015-16, I think an interesting starting point is to slot the Canes current players and identify the openings. The key is to slot them based not on where they fit on the current Canes roster, which was not even close to good enough last season, but where they would fit on a good, playoff-type team.
For forwards, I break it into 3 categories:
1) Top 6. This is your top 2 lines, most of your power play personnel and the players who need to win games for you.
2) 3rd line. This line must be good enough to play regular shifts, play some shifts against the other team's best (especially on the road) without being overmatched and generate decent secondary scoring.
3) 4th line. This line sees fewer minutes, ideally includes a few role players (PK is ideal) and hopefully can hold its own defensively if it ends up on the ice with an undesirable matchup.
For the Hurricanes, I think it is like this:
--Top 6. 3 players. Eric Staal, Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin. It is important to note that all 3 of these players have proven top 6-capable for extended stretches during their careers. It is also important to note that none of the 3 was really a good top 6 forward on a winning team last season. At least 2 if not all 3 of these players will need to be better in 2015-16 for the Canes to improve significantly and climb into the playoff chase.
--3rd line. 4 players. Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask and Andrej Nestrasil. Again the key point here is slotting players where they would fit on a playoff-bound team, not where they rank on the Canes who were nowhere near good enough to make the playoffs in 2014-15.
I would say that all 4 of these players have the potential to rise into the top 6 and be suited for this role. And that is important because there is no way that the Canes budget is going to include signing 3 top 6 forwards for $12-15 million to build out a new 2nd line/add 3 top 6 forwards.
Player by player...
Jeff Skinner. He clearly has enough offensive ability to play in the top 6, and he has produced offensively at this level in the past. The offense is not the issue. The issue continues to be his ability to round into a decent 2-way player. Until he does, he will continue to be a dynamic and streaky scorer who is a minus player 5 on 5 and who contributes more to losing than winning (despite the scoring) when he players in the top 6. ==> Needed to move up: Significant improvement in 2-way play.
Elias Lindholm. He made good strides in 2014-15. As I said in a previous blog, most significant to me was that he looked much more comfortable in the NHL in 2014-15 after being in over his head at times in his rookie season. His smart game with enough offensive ability projects well to being a top 6 forward. I do not see him as an elite scorer, but rather a good all-around player who scores enough. The only downside to his 2014-15 season was inconsistency. Lindholm looked every bit of a good 1st or 2nd line forward in games and short stretches in 2014-15, but there were also games and stretches where he was invisible. To be a top 6 on a good NHL team, it needs to be an every night event. ==> Needed to move up: Increased consistency and a modest increase in scoring.
Andrej Nestrasil. He very much reminds me of Jiri Tlusty in his ability to play pretty sound hockey with enough of a combination of offensive ability, correct decision-making and decent defensive play. While he is not a pure version of a 2nd-line forward, I could see him climbing into a 2nd line role especially if Coach Bill Peters separates Jordan and Eric and builds a bit more of a checking-focused line around Jordan Staal. Even to play on a defense-first 2nd line, he needs to boost his scoring productivity. ==> Needed to move up: Increased offensive production and proving that he can handle regular minutes against the NHL's elite forwards.
Victor Rask. It is important to remember that he went from being nowhere on the roster radar going into training camp to being a pretty good top 9 forward through a full 82-game season. That is a huge step forward that suddenly has him at least a full season ahead of what would have been hoped for him. So that is obviously a positive and a great foundation from which to start. I think his 2014-15 slots him as a reliable, serviceable 3rd-line center. He had some learning moments but was not in over his head defensively at the NHL level. But offensively, he was just light even for a 3rd-line center. He received a pretty healthy helping of power play ice time and a generally decent set of line mates and managed only 33 points. That is borderline 3rd line and significantly short for 2nd line duties on a good team. ==> Needed to move up: Continued maturation of his game in all areas and a bump up offensively especially in terms of playmaking and generating chances for his line mates.
In an ideal world on a deeper team, the Canes would force 3 of the 4 from Skinner, Lindholm, Rask and Nestrasil down to the 3rd line. If this happened, the Canes suddenly become pretty deep having some ability to shelter this young line a bit, pick favorable matchups and have a 3rd line with more talent than the other team's counterpart. The reality of the Canes right now is pretty much reversed. Right now this line would slot as a 2nd line for the Canes. GM Ron Francis will probably add a forward or 2 this summer, but probably 2 of these players will need to step up, play in a 2nd line role and boost their game significantly from 2014-15 to be a positive in this role.
If I were in Francis job, I think building the top 6 goes something like this:
--Semin, EStaal and JStaal all get slotted in the top 6, and all need to improve significantly to make half of at least an average NHL top 6. If those top players cannot do that, the math gets real tough.
--2 of Skinner, Lindholm and Nestrasil need to grow from their 2014-15 seasons and claim top 6 slots. Skinner seems most obvious simply because the raw offensive/scoring ability is clearly there. I think Lindholm is most directly on a path to get there with a good all-around game and stepwise progress toward this role last season. While I would not expect Nestrasil to drive a 2nd line, I think he could grow to be an adequate complementary player on such a line. I am on record as preferring to trade Skinner for a comparable age/ability defenseman. If the Canes did that and cut a bit of salary in the process just maybe that frees up enough money to add 1 legitimate top 6 forward. In my perfect world, it would be a player with some flexibility who could play center or left wing such that he could center a 2nd line something like Nestrasil/_____/Semin or Lindholm or could play left wing if the Staals are separated to center the 1st 2 lines.
I will cover it in more detail in my next blog, but I think this is the best the Canes can do to build out a top 6. I like Rask as a starting point for a 3rd line, and the Canes do already have the key pieces and enough options available to build out a good 4th line. The challenge will be building the top half of the forward lines without raiding the bottom half and basically slotting everyone 1 line too high.
What say you Canes fans? Will the big 3 (EStaal, JStaal, Semin) perform better in 2015-16? Is there any hope at all if they do not? Is this the year that Skinner puts it all together? Or am I right to consider trading him? Who of the young guns is most suited to rise up to a 2nd line slot?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!
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