Follow @james_tanner123 One of the best investments I ever made was buying a poker book by Dan Harrington. It cost maybe $30 bucks and after ten years it's the roughest looking book on my shelf - all dog eared and bloated and bent and highlighted and written in.
Not like I've ever made any serious money playing cards, but we play a weekly game in which I am certain the Harrington book has allowed me to win much more often than I otherwise would have. Anyways, the reason I bring it up is because there is this interesting thing he says at the beginning of the book, which I will paraphrase:
In any game that is a mixture of luck and skill (i.e Poker, Hockey, most other games) whoever wins over the long-term will do so because they made less mistakes than their opponent. The point of poker is not to make a great bluff or a big bet at the right time, but to play in such a way as to limit your own mistakes and induce your opponent to make mistakes. He goes on to say that poker isn't a game of cards, but a game of gambling in which cards are used as something to gamble on.
One could look at hockey, from a management perspective, in much the same way: you're competing against other GMs in a game of gambling in which you place bets on certain people and how well they will perform the task you have in mind for them.
Since, over time, everyone can expect (more or less) that luck will balance itself out, the most successful (long-term) GM is going to be the one who not only makes the least mistakes himself, but exploits the mistakes of his opponents - this could mean finding out what is overvalued (size, point totals) and trying to take advantage; it could mean finding out what is undervalued (shot prevention, possession skills) and trying to take advantage; or it could be something as simple as finding out who makes bad decisions and then trying to get then to make another one.
That means that if you're a GM of a team today, the first thing you should be doing is calling the Ducks. And then calling them again and again and again. Because when someone does something as insanely stupid as hiring Randy Carlyle,to replace Bruce Boudreau no less, you have to take advantage.
Now, as I say that, I don't forget that the Ducks have been a pretty solid team for the last several years. But Getzlaf, Perry and good goaltending will take you a long way.
Bob Murray deserves credit for good drafting - though having a second and third round pick in back-to-back years turn into Anderson and Gibson - not to mention drafting Josh Manson 160th - seems more lucky than anything else. Full credit though for drafting Hampus Lindholm and for keeping the band together for all these years.
Still, you look at some of his moves, especially lately, and his decision making looks really questionable.
Bob Murray's Resume as Ducks GM:
- Traded Chris Kunitz for Ryan Whitney
- Traded FOR Jason Blake
- Traded Jake Gardiner
- Made a bad trade for Kesler, then signed him to one of the worst contracts in the NHL.
-Gave away useful players Jiri Sekac, Devonte Smith-Pelly and Patrick Maroon.
-Gave away Kyle Palmieri
- Fired Bruce Boudreau despite evidence showing he has one of the biggest positive impacts of any coach in hockey.
- Hired Randy Carlye
The only two really good trades he's made are the Bobby Ryan trade (saved money to blow on Kesler, got the defensively elite Silfverberg who is more useful in my opinion than Ryan) and the trade with the Leafs were he traded down and drafted Gibson and Rackell).
Now let's review the facts:
Bruce Boudreau gets more points in the standings per game played than any coach of all time, and he has one of the biggest positive impacts of any coach on his team's performance of any coach in the NHL.
Here is an interesting article from Travis Yost to illustrate these facts: http://www.tsn.ca/ducks-boudreau-is-a-winner-1.281100
Furthermore, Randy Carlyle is one of the worst coaches in the NHL. How do we know this? Because people have tracked the possession of players who have played for him and for other coaches and it's not pretty.
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/4/17/5618696/toronto-maple-leafs-wowys-randy-carlyle-edition
Here are some more Tweets from Yost - the best writer covering the NHL.
Firing Bruce Boudreau for Randy Carlyle is unconscionable. Basically a top-five modern era coach for bottom-five modern era coach.
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) June 14, 2016
Randy Carlyle career here, ANA and TOR: pic.twitter.com/Q0UtSAUWWx
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) June 14, 2016
To put it bluntly:
By replacing potentially the best coach in the NHL with the worst coach in the NHL, the Ducks have made one of the single worst moves in NHL history.
If you combine this with their recent history of making bad trades and signings, and you are an NHL GM, you have to be looking at the Ducks like their roster is a menu of things they will give you at a discounted price.
Since the Ducks clearly need to do something about their defense with regards to the expansion draft next year (they can't keep all of Folwer, Lindholm, Vespres, Manson, Bieksa and Theordore (likely exempt)) the odds are good they'll trade a defenseman this summer.
Looking at the Ducks recent moves, it wouldn't be surprising if they over-value Fowler because of his scoring and subsequently moved Hampus Lindholm, who probably has more trade value.
This means that if I was an NHL GM, I would spend every waking hour hounding Bob Murray and attempting to pry away Lindholm, who I believe is a top-ten defenseman in the making.
And if not Lindholm, definitely Manson.
Bob Murray has made mistake after mistake. He just made the biggest coaching blunder in NHL history. Why not see if he'll trade you the best player on his roster?