For the first time since the 2010-11 season, the Tampa Bay Lightning will play in the Eastern Conference Final. The series, which will be played against the New York Rangers, starts tomorrow afternoon at Madison Square Garden. It promises to be a highly entertaining matchup, with star power laden throughout both sides.
It’s interesting that, despite the fact that they’ve made it this far, both the Rangers and Lightning have had doubts and questions surrounding them during this postseason. People in New York were concerned about their team’s inability to dominate a defenseless (literally) Pittsburgh team in Round One, and folks in Tampa nearly saw the Montreal Canadiens mount a spectacular comeback in Round Two.
The Rangers, of course, responded with a miraculous and impressive run to close out their second round series with the Washington Capitals, while the Lightning played their best game of the postseason when it mattered most in Game Six against the Canadiens. Both teams proved that they could deal with adversity, and deal with it well. These groups aren’t perfect, but they’re certainly the best the Eastern Conference has to offer.
With respect to this series, some Tampa fans are quick to point out that the Lightning were perfect against the Rangers in the regular season. While that’s all fine and true, it’s worth noting that the last time they played was on December 1st. That was back when New York was just plodding along to start the season. That was before New York got crazy good, picked up Keith Yandle, and started dominating the league. Maybe that regular season success will mean something, but it probably won’t mean much.
So, let’s ignore the regular season games for a moment and consider recent history. One of the things that made Tampa a ‘sexy’ pick to start the playoffs was their strength in the possession department. Unfortunately, the team’s possession game has fallen off a cliff. Per War on Ice, the Bolts’ Fenwick percentage at five-on-five in the postseason is 47.3%; that’s only better than the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets, both of whom are currently on the back nine at their local country club.
As this shows, the ‘they aren’t firing on all cylinders’ talk isn’t baseless conjecture – it’s a quantifiable reality. This Lightning squad was a possession giant during the regular season, and they’ll likely need to get back to that if they want to make it to the Stanley Cup Final. If there's anything recent history has shown us, it's that continuing to win with dreadful possession numbers is tough to do.
The good news for Tampa Bay in that regard is that New York is hardly a possession behemoth. They win by relying on Henrik Lundqvist, and by converting on the opportunities they do create. That should give the Lightning an opportunity to build on a great Game Six victory over the Canadiens and get back to playing their game.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that this series won’t be short on storylines. Many of the players who led New York to the Stanley Cup Final last season now call Tampa home, and the Lightning’s all-time greatest player now wears a Rangers jersey. You can bet that those stories will be talked up for the next few weeks. If anything, maybe they add an extra bit of emotion to what is already shaping up to be a great series between two exciting teams.
Go Bolts Go! As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.