The concepts of catch and release are not hard to grasp but fans tend to over-complicate issues with loyalty and eye-test impressions. Certainly there are other factors that go into building a roster and team but many of those, except on the most superficial levels, are hidden from the general fan populace. Fans, like general managers, coaches, and scouts are all victim to over-valuing their own players vs knowing when to let them go. This off-season the Jets are in two positions depending on how one looks at the bigger picture.
The first view would be one of envy as the team has cap room and enough current UFA and RFA players to allow them enough freedom to change and address shortcomings. The team is also perceived to be ‘on the rise’ and seen as a more desirable place to go than in previous off seasons.
The second view would be one of cautious concern with the possibility of losing several UFA players one of which being a savvy trade acquisition and the other a key piece in the return for Evander Kane. Also part of this view is who/how do current moves affect the next off season, where 4 key players in Byfgulien, Ladd, Schiefele and Trouba all need new deals. Want to add another subplot- look at Connor Helleybuck and his play in the World Hockey Championships. He has a 4-0 record, a .67 GAA and a .969 save percentage and has one shut out. This however is another topic in its entirety and will be looked at later.
There are 7 players plus 1 former player that need some consideration when looking at the Jets next season. Tlusty, Stempniak, Stafford, Frolik, Slater, Halischuk, Galiardi along with Burmistrov are the forwards the Jets have and should be making some hard decisions about.
Below are their particular HERO chars courtesy of the excellent work from Mimic Hero.
What the numbers state is that 3 of these 8 players are not like the others. Tlusty, Stempniak, and Frolik are all pushing the play forward while the latter two are doing even more by suppressing shot attempts. That’s what the modern and progressive NHL teams are and should be looking for. It’s also what Paul Maurice preached last off-season when he talked about goalie evaluation and fixing defensive systems. Explained in the most basic sense the Jets want to keep players such as these two because their ‘numbers’ fit with the philosophy and tactics of the coach.
Jiri Tlusty represents an interesting situation as he’s not a traditional 4th line player, one who fans consider ‘energy’ or ‘crash and bang’ guys. He may be exactly the kind of 4th line player a team moving away from Peluso’s and Thorburn’s needs if they want to compete within the new and evolving NHL. When Tlusty was on the ice for the Jets, in all situations, the team shot 8.66% so just slightly above league average. At even strength 5v5 that number jumped to 8.88% so something is working for Tlusty and his linemates but perhaps not him.
In all situations his personal shooting percentage was 3.85% and at even strength it was 4% for his time with Winnipeg. Before he came to Winnipeg he had a shooting percentage of 13.4% in all situations and 9.33% at even strength. However his on-ice shooting percentage with other players was 6.34% at even strength and 7.37% in all situations. If I am Kevin Cheveldayoff and the scouts I’m trying to figure why things reversed for Tlusty so quickly after the trade. There could be obvious reasons but they need to be confirmed before cutting the line or hauling him back in.
A final thought in Tlusty is this- if you believe in the adage that some of the best bottom line players are higher first round picks that did not pan out then Tlusty fits the model. 13th over all in 2006 and he just turned 27.
Where is the love for Drew Stafford? Don’t look here, that’s not because he doesn’t deserve some praise for timely scoring and such, but is this the guy a team should try and sign right now? Who do you want longer Ladd or Stafford? They both turn 30 later this year and while Ladd had a slower end to the season, due to playing with a sports hernia, versus Stafford who had 9 goals and 10 assists in 26 games, the former still finished with a team high 62 points. Drew Stafford has only been within 10 points of that mark once in his career.
The point with Stafford is this: are Jets fans over-valuing him because of a hot run in a contract year with a far better team after a trade? To further that point if he costs 4 million to re-sign, and as shown above there are 4 key players due for deals next year, would that contract cut into future available cap space?
Stafford is seen as a key piece in the Evander Kane deal because the only other things coming back were two prospects and now the 26th overall pick from St. Louis. Once again is this a case of valuing Stafford to highly due to his significance in the Kane trade? That could be a dangerous proposition for any GM who feels the need to hold onto something he acquired because the rest of the acquisition is guess work and lottery ticket. If re-signing Stafford jeopardizes the available space for Frolik or other players that should be retained is the GM managing his team effectively?
In fairness Stafford can be retained but it has to be the right term, no longer than three years and salary preferably in the 2.5-3 million range, less would be ideal. Only one of those options is likely and that is the term. The league may be getting smarter towards UFAs entering their 30s but with a thin UFA market this summer Stafford may no have another opportunity to cash in like this again.
With players like Tlusty, Stafford and Frolik the Jets have depth that did not exist 3 seasons before. This is the kind of depth the team needs to keep while allowing chances for youth to come into the fold. That youth would be players like Copp, Ehlers, and others but they fit into the part 2 of the ‘catch and release’ conversation.