Win or go home. A regular season Game Seven. If Calgary wins they clinch a playoff spot that no one really predicted. If the Kings win they stay alive for one more day.
Cancel plans. Stay in tonight. Because this is THE game of the season.
The Kings are in a place they do not want to be, but that is irrelevant at this point. The challenge that faces them is a Calgary Flames team that has seemingly had their number all season. In many ways you could say the Flames have been one of the teams that have put the Kings in the place they are in.
The Series by the Numbers
The Kings have dropped 3-of-4 to the Flames this year, twice in overtime, and twice while leading going into the third period. They have won the possession battle in all four of the games they have faced the Flames as well.
Gaudreau in particular has been a thorn in the side for the Kings in these games. He has point in all four games, and registered a hat trick against them back on December 22nd. Jiri Hudler, who has been hot lately, has failed to score in the four games but has registered four assists. Finally, Dennis Wideman has points in 3-of-4 with a goal and four assists.
The Kings have average almost 34 shots a game against the Flames goaltending in the series, however they have registered just 2.5 goals per game. The Kings will likely face Jonas Hiller tonight, and only the St. Louis Blues have averaged more shots against him this season. Hiller holds a .911 save percentage against the Kings so far this year. Hiller has just a .905 save percentage this year with a .911 adjusted save percentage.
Not unusual for the Kings, if the Toffoli/Carter combo is not scoring the games have been fairly difficult to win. The Kings have seen goals primarily come from the bottom six this series, which might be something to keep an eye on.
Hiller's opposite, Jonathan Quick, has been mixed overall, with a 17th overall adjusted save percentage. However, it is 11th overall at 5-on-5.
The series in general has been played primarily at even strength, where the Kings have dominated but not scored. LA has averaged between three to four minors a game. However, a large portion of that average came in a chippy January 19th game in which the two teams split a whopping 30 minutes in minor penalties. That is quite a difference from the eight and a half minutes they split in the other three games.
Lineups
Here is a look at the projected Flames lineup thanks to Leftwinglock.com
The top line of the Flames is the key here. If Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau are able to get going in this game, it could mean issues for the Kings. They were at or above 50% Corsi For in two of the four games against L.A. this season. Those were probably the two best performances the Flames put together against the Kings in the season series. If the Kings want to win this game, they are going to have to focus on limiting the chances of the Flames top line. Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau have seven, five, and four points respectively in their last five games.
Here are how the Kings should lineup tonight.
With the Kings top lines potentially getting tied up with the Monahan line, it is probably going to once again fall on the shoulders of the Carter line to ignite the offense. Carter has only three goals in his last ten games, but has points in three of the last four. Toffoli has cooled significantly in the goal scoring department, with only two in his last 13 and three total since February 21st.
Doughty played like a man possessed against Edmonton, and was one of few players to have a real sense of urgency. He, along with Justin Williams looked like players fighting for their lives. Look for those two to have an impact tonight as well.
Final Notes
The other game of importance tonight is Winnipeg and Colorado. If Winnipeg beats Colorado then Kings fans have to become Jets fans on the last day of the season. That is, of course, if the Kings can win out against both Calgary and San Jose. The Flames and the Jets play each other on the final day.
That is maybe looking a bit far ahead. Tonight the Kings have a do or die task placed upon them. With a season that has been mired by inconsistency, a 60-minute effort is going to be needed. Despite beating the Flames to death in the advanced stats realm, the Kings have failed to step on the throat of Calgary when need be. The Flames have been masters of the comeback victory this season and have twice buried a dagger in the Kings when they seemed down and out. If anyone has learned anything about Calgary this season, it is that you cannot count this team out. Expect a playoff feel in this one, because it practically is a playoff game.
Sit back, bust out the Pepto, and try and enjoy what should be a good game.
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