The Rangers head to Washington for a pivotal Game 4 Wednesday. I use the term pivotal or critical rather than must-win because it fits. Granted, falling down 3-1 in a second round series in back-to-back years is not the way you would draw it up, but a loss wouldn't eliminate the Rangers, therefore it's not a must win.
The team's offensive woes these playoffs are nothing new. Over the last four years, the Blueshirts have been limited to two goals or fewer in 41 of their 65 playoff games, including six of eight this time around. They’ve been shut out in 10 of their last 15 periods, resulting in them averaging just 1.88 goals per game this postseason.
If you are a believer in history repeating itself, the below stat portends well for tonight. However, as we saw the other day, history at times is meant to be broken. Hopefully, that is not the case tonight. In each of their last three playoff series and in five of their last seven, the Rangers have won Game 4. They also have won both of the last two series in which they trailed two games to one (against Pittsburgh in 2014 and Washington in 2013).
I mentioned the other day that a change up in strategy may be necessary. The change would require a dump and chase type of game rather than trying to use speed through the neutral zone. Because Washington is doing such a good job of preventing New York from utilizing the stretch pass or their speed, they have been bottled up in the neutral zone. However, as Larry Brooks wrote today, when the Rangers have tried to change strategies, that has not worked out well either.
To defend the speedy Rangers, the Capitals’ blueliners are playing up at their own blue line and trying to force the Rangers to dump the puck in behind them, rather than skate it into the zone. In Game 3, the Blueshirts tried to dump the puck where they could create pressure and win a battle or force a turnover, but Washington’s defensemen relieved the pressure quickly and weren’t forced into many giveaways.
To counter this, not only the first forward has to be strong on the forecheck but the second one has to come in hard to cut down the passing angle to the opposite defenseman. Washington was able to move the puck to easily across to the other side and therefore exit the zone. By situating the second forward on more of a sharp angle it may force the first defenseman to move it quicker than anticipated and potentially create a turnover
Brooks added that Alain Vigneault himself has to be willing to adjust to the moment. Specifically, the coach needs to get Dominic Moore, one of the select few Blueshirts whose game is built for the grind of the playoffs, into a top-nine assignment, and maybe onto the power play.
Moore has been one of the Rangers best forward to this postseason. He likely is deserving of a move up in the rotation, however, how do you situate or configure the other lines to make that happen? Do you play Kreider with Nash and Stepan? Do you slide Hayes to the wing and have him paired with Moore and Hagelin? Does Sheppard center Glass with either Fast and Miller? Do you put Brassard with St. Louis and whoever isn't on the fourth line?
On the power play, it may be time to load up the first line. The following five likely should be on in order to generate traffic in front with good puck movement and possession from the blue line. Maybe go with stepan-kreider-nash-brassard-yandle with Boyle sliding down to play with McDonagh on the points of the second unit and Hayes-Moore and either Miller or MSL.
One key tonight maybe to get an early lead. In Game 1, Washington scored first and while the Rangers tied it, the Capitals ended up winning. In Game 2, the Rangers grabbed an early lead they never relinquished. As we know, the Capitals scored the only goal in Game 3. As we have seen in this series, the team that has scored first has won all three games. That may be a fluke, but in a game that is a major priority, getting an early lead would help boost the Rangers confidence and possibly take the crowd out of it a bit.
Win tonight and send the series back to New York even. I still believe. Do you?