Lights will guide you home And ignite your bones I will try to fix you
'Fix You' by Coldplay
Every time the Montreal Canadiens step onto the ice at the Bell Centre they are greeted by two young skaters in full Habs gear and the intro to Coldplay’s “Fix You…. It is a stirring, first class entrance guaranteed to bring goose-bumps to the Habs faithful watching in the building and across the globe. Short of the House of Windsor, no one does ceremony like Les Canadiens. They have mastered the jersey retirement, the goodbye to deceased legends and most literally, the passing of the torch. No one can question the pre-game introduction to a Canadiens match. It is how the games have concluded, specifically the ’15 campaign, which has troubled Habs fans.
Only one team can win its final game, the Stanley Cup champion. The Habs’ brand has been built for decades on titles won by the legends whose jerseys hang from the rafters. But 22 seasons removed from their last Stanley Cup, the Canadiens franchise and its fan base are peddling a proud history that does not have a modern day link. A generation of Canadiens’ players cannot claim the ultimate glory that previous editions owned as their birthright. Part of this is the reality of the new 30 team NHL. Part of it is due to a disastrous 5 year run by GM Rejean Houle (1995-2000). It actually probably took Montreal close to ten years to emerge from Houle's reign of error. This is, however, a tale for another day. Current GM Marc Bergevin took over in 2012 and seemed to promise a return to perennial contention and eventually, a Stanley Cup. He has had 2 ½ seasons. Where do we stand?
Let’s start with the positives. While the Habs’ exit was painful, the reality is they lost an extremely close series to a very young, very talented Tampa squad. What galls Canadiens fans isn’t so much the loss, but the fact that the same deficiencies in the Habs’ game that reared their head all season long, eventually lead to their ultimate demise. Their power play was terrible. They struggled to score goals and thus relied on Carey Price to win every game 1-0 or 2-1. Eventually, a team that was so confident in its ability to thrive and win in tight contests ran into some bad beats.
The crazy part is that in a regular season in which they struggled mightily in the analytics department, the Habs finished 2nd overall with 110 points. Montreal was routinely outshot and suffered below average possession numbers on their way to a divisional crown. Their playoff run, however, produced a complete reversal of fortunes. The Habs outshot and out chanced the opposition in 9 of 12 games. Ironically, the stretch of games they “deserved… to win the most were the ones they lost; bringing the final curtain on their season. Today's column will look at the building blocks the Canadiens have in place and highlight reasons for optimism. Part 2 will deal will the underbelly of your 2015 Habs squad.
Any story on the Habs' Stanley Cup aspirations both begins and ends with Carey Price. Since being paired with goalie guru Stephane Waite, Price has turned all his immense promise into results. An Olympic Gold medal, an expected MVP award and some sensational post season play have earned #31 the status as best in the game. Price turns 28 this summer and is square in his prime. Henrik Lundqvist, for example, is 33 years old. If Price can remain healthy with an improving team around him, we are looking at a 3-5 year window to harvest his best years. Now nothing is guaranteed in sports. A flying Chris Kreider or a subpar season (see: Quick, Jonathon and Rask, Tuuka) can wash away a calendar year very quickly. But for now, The Habs have the premier talent at the game's premier position.
Marc Bergevin believes that defense wins championships.The Habs GM says " If you can’t defend, you have no chance to win". With Price in net the Habs are set in goal. A quick look at their blueline shows that they have the potential for a very solid defense for years to come. Let's say they sign Jeff Petry. Here is their expected "D" next season (opening day ages in brackets):
Markov (36)/Subban(27) Beaulieu(22)/Petry(27) Emelin(29)/Gilbert(32) Tinordi (23)/Pateryn(25)
That is 8 NHL defensemen. The future core of say Subban, Petry, Beaulieu, Pateryn and Tinordi are all between 22-27. Again, these guys are just entering their prime years. Subban is one of the top 5-10 defensemen in the game. Petry was a revelation in the post season and his play solidified the Habs' second pairing. Beaulieu and Pateryn are young guys who had solid playoff showings. Both showed that they are ready for regular top 6 minutes on a playoff team. Emelin brings a physical edge to the back end and is perfectly suited to being a 4/5 defenseman. Gilbert was very good in the playoffs and seemed to thrive no matter who he was paired with. Markov, despite his waning speed, still has the ability to be a cerebral assassin. With so many "D" men in the wings, there will be an opportunity to keep #79's minutes down and shelter him from taking every tough assignment.
You could say that signing Petry will put the Habs in a tough predicament in regards to Emelin. It is tough to pay a 4/5 guy over $4 million a year. That's how Josh Gorges ended in Buffalo. There is also a concern over Markov's playoff showing. A key question: Is Beaulieu ready and is Therrien willing to give him top 4 minutes? Also, what if the Habs cannot sign Petry? The top 6 without Petry would look like this:
Markov/Subban Beaulieu/Gilbert Emelin/Pateryn Tinordi
Still solid, but not quite as dynamic. The Habs are in a pickle on the left side as they have big money committed to #79 and #74. That takes two spots and leaves a ready Beaulieu and a potentially ready Tinordi battling over the minutes they need to develop. Also, how long can Markov play in the top pairing? Based on the playoffs, it looks like sooner rather than later, he will be playing sheltered minutes.
The key is re-signing Petry. They could jettison Gilbert and still have their right side solidified with Subban/Petry/Pateryn for the next 5 seasons. The left side would feature Markov/Beaulieu with Tinordi and Emelin battling for the final spot. Markov would be keeping a seat on the top pairing warm while Tinordi and Beaulieu develop. Can Tinordi develop into a steady presence (a la Marc Staal) able to play against top forwards and cover for a free-lancing PK? Can Beaulieu continue to improve and give PK a partner to share the puck and control the flow for 60 seconds at a time 25 minutes a night? That is a big leap for both players, is it in their DNA?
Many questions, but still a future with promise on the back end. Washington, Tampa and the Rangers all have deep groups with elite players manning the top pairing. The Habs have the opportunity to put out 3 pairings that would rival anyone in the league. It is going to take some financial creativity and some growth from their young guns, but they have the talent to have ice 6 defensemen capable of playing any style you want.
Tomorrow, we will dive into the forwards and some of the warts on this Canadiens' team.