I will surely write about this in more detail once we get closer. But since it is fresh on everyone's mind right now after the lottery on Saturday, I figured I would take a couple minutes to post my initial thoughts on the Canes draft.
First, let me start by asserting a few things that will not happen (of course setting myself up to be shocked):
--Trade the #5 pick away for players. It is not happening. Ron Francis gets the need to build young, talented depth and he will not trade this pick to try to Band-Aid the 2015-16 roster.
--Trade the #5 pick to move down significantly (significantly being more than 3-4 slots--see below). The top end of this draft offers a number of players who could easily go as high as #2 or #3 in lesser draft years. Francis will not move way down to get more later round picks that look much more like lottery tickets and less like probable top half of the roster NHLers.
So there is my official answer from now until late June every time someone shows up in the comments offering some random collection of roster players, prospects and some much later pick. I will be shocked if that happens.
So with 'what will not happen' put to bed, what will Francis look to do with the #5 pick. I think very simply you have to go for the best available player. Aiming too much for bigger players or specific positions or whatever else just increases the chance of whiffing completely. From 2010 would you rather have Jeff Skinner or some bigger player who is still toiling away in the AHL hoping to 1 day be a depth forward at the NHL level?
This said, I think Francis likely has a few biases that would serve as tiebreakers in the event that the Canes scouting department rates players equally.
1) With Hanafin possibly being the exception, I think Francis would prefer to take a forward with the early pick. I think the selection of Haydn Fleury last summer was a statement about Francis' willingness/desire to build the future blue line through quantity and quality in the system that was lacking under Rutherford's "defensemen take too long to develop" mantra and preference for taking forwards early. But he also added a high 1st, 2nd (McKeown via Sekera trade) and a 4th round defensemen last summer. In an ideal world, Francis could have used a mid-1st round LA Kings pick to add another pretty highly ranked defenseman from a deep draft, but that obviously did not happen. Hanifin would be the wild card if he is available at #5 and Francis and the scouting department really like him. My guess is that Francis takes a forward with the #5 pick and looks to add a defenseman or 2 later in the draft.
2) I think the Canes would prefer to take a forward who at least has a chance to crack the 2015-16 roster. The Canes are short a couple forwards and need to allocate much of what they have for budget to build out the blue line. Adding a forward on an entry level contract who at least has a chance to crack the roster could help.
Those 2 biases suggest that the Canes #5 pick will be 1 of the bigger, possibly more physically ready forwards that slot around the #5 pick in the rankings. Current rankings and projections say that that list includes Dylan Strome (seemingly not likely to be available per most recent draft projections), Lawson Crouse, Pavel Zacha and Mikko Rantanen. Left out because of the biases above are Mitchell Marner who is a bit of an undersized center who is compared to Patrick Kane and the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensemen Ivan Provorov and Zachary Werenski.
But here's the thing. As I said before, for me the draft especially when you have a #5 pick in a deep draft is about 2 things. First, take the best available player - don't get cute. Second, draft with the aim of getting a player with a real high ceiling who can be great. At #5, I don't want a nice safe pick who will at least be a decent checking line 3rd-liner. You can develop those from medium level talent. I want a player who at least has a chance to be the best player on my team in 5 years. So enter Mitchell Marner. If the Canes scouting team likes him much more than the other options and believes the Patrick Kane comparison, I take him. Some fans will grumble about adding another undersized forward, but if he looks like Patrick Kane in 3-4 years, no one will care. And Francis can always add more size through other avenues.
I said above that I would be very surprised to see Francis trade down significantly (like outside the top 10) to just accumulate more lower probability picks. With the draft being as deep as it is, whoever the Canes get at #5 could easily be a #2/#3 or maybe even a #1 some years. This said, I think the wild card is if Francis and his team like 2-3 different players fairly equally especially if they are players slotted more like 8-10. In that case, I could see Francis trading down 2-4 slots if he gets a return. He could then get pretty much what he wants with his 1st pick anyway and add something extra to boot.
Subject to multiple changes as we get more information, my wild guess is that the Canes would be thrilled to slot Strome into the future as a 1st or 2nd line center but otherwise will settle for either Zacha or Rantanen who bring size with skill. To put a stake in the sand, I will take Mikko Rantanen.
What say you Canes fans? Who will even be available at #5? Would Francis follow up his Haydn Fleury pick last summer with another high-end defenseman in Hanifin if he is available? Is it possible that Marner is just so good that you ignore his size? Which of the big forwards is most NHL-ready, and could 1 be drafted and make the Canes for 2015-16?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!