NHL Central Scouting’s Final Draft rankings were released today and there weren’t many surprises near the top of the list except for the inclusion of Lawson Crouse in the top 5. Everything else is relatively safe except for that one oddity.
We know that Connor McDavid is Number 1 with a bullet. He’s a freak of nature once-in-a-generation talent who does everything at top speed and he plays Center. Barring a catastrophic collapse he’s expected to step into the NHL and begin a career that should see him compete for scoring titles in short order.
We know Jack Eichel is ranked number 2 and he’s more of a Power Forward than McDavid. He uses his body to create more space and he dominated the NCAA. If he played in the CHL there might have been a closer race between the two players but he’s a 1st overall pick in other years.
Making the distinction between those two players is easy enough that anybody could do it. Anybody. There’s no special skills required. The real test of the scouting is when there’s doubt. There is nobody more controversial, all year, than Lawson Crouse. He has size, he’s defensively responsible, and he’s relatively fast. Those are the things that make scouts have to take cold showers after their viewings. He checks a lot of boxes.
One thing he didn’t check for most of the year was offense. He was picking up goals, but little else. It’s hard to tell how much was shooting percentage driven versus volume driven because the CHL does a relatively poor job tracking and presenting that kind of data, but there’s reason to be concerned about the amount of offense he brings to the table.
Final Crouse numbers w/wo Bennett in the lineup:
With Bennett: 15 points in 11 games (1.36)
Without Bennett: 36 points in 45 games (.80)
— Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell) April 8, 2015Sam Bennett was drafted 4th overall last year and missed almost the entire season because of a shoulder injury. When he did return he scored an insane 24 points in 11 games. He fell back to Earth in the playoffs and Kingston was bounced in 4 games, but he had been an instant boost to the team. Before Bennett’s arrival, Crouse was putting up numbers that are generally associated with 2nd Round picks or later, not lottery picks. After Bennett returned, Crouse was producing like a 1st Round pick (still not a lottery in this Draft but a 1st).
Meanwhile, all Mitch Marner did was lead the London Knights and the entire OHL in scoring until the very last day of the season when Strome overtook him. Unlike Crouse, Marner is small, creative, and prolific offensively. They couldn’t be further apart in body or playing type. Everything that Marner is, Crouse isn’t and vice versa.
So as I mentioned before, this is the test of scouting. Professional scouts have watched these kids play and through multiple viewings NHL Central Scouting has ranked Lawson Crouse a Top 5 pick. Mitch Marner, not so much. Not living in Ontario I’ve been forced to rely on only the resources available to help inform my thoughts on these players. This includes statistics, TV, and scouting reports.
The available numbers say one thing. The scouts say another.
But even what the scouts are SAYING isn’t very convincing. Here’s Director of NHL Central Scouting Dan Marr on the Crouse/Marner rankings, “You've got your choices to what's going to fit into the philosophy you have of an NHL player. If you want to argue who is going to be the best down the road, they're all equally going to be good in their roles based on their talent because all three are different-type forwards."
They’re going to be equally good in their roles so it’s hard to argue who will be better? Well Marner’s role looks like a top 6 forward with extremely high scoring ability a la Pat Kane and Crouse looks like a 3rd line Ethan Moreau type Winger. Those are two different roles but I know which one I would be more comfortable drafting 5th overall.
In any event, this is Central Scouting's Top 10
1) McDavid C 2) Eichel C 3) Hanifin D 4) Strome C 5) Crouse W 6) Marner W 7) Provorov D 8) Zacha C 9) Werenski D 10) Meier W
Depending on how the Lottery goes the Oilers could be looking at one of McDavid, Hanifin, Strome, or Marner. Maybe if he's still available when the Oilers are selecting with Pittsburgh's pick they can consider Crouse.
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