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Babcock Better Off In Buffalo http://t.co/yvRkWJWFAZ pic.twitter.com/4nvSUFpR5C
— SabresBuzz (@SabresBuzz) May 1, 2015
TSN Insider Bob McKenzie speaks with many influential people inside the NHL.
On Thursday afternoon, he tod Dave Naylor on TSN Drive in Toronto that he thinks that if Detroit Red Wings head man Mike Babcock becomes an unrestricted free agent, then he believes that the Edmonton Oilers stand the best chance of snagging the most in-demand bench boss in the NHL.
“If I were ranking the possibilities for Mike Babcock outside of Detroit, take Detroit out of the equation, I would put Edmonton at Number 1, no question.
“The number one criteria, I think for Mike Babcock would be who he is working for. I think it always is to some degree for a head coach to want to know who is general manager or owner is. Who is he reporting to?…
Good point. Why would Babcock go to work for a manager and owner that he doesn't get along with?
“I think the (Oilers newly minted CEO) Bob Nicholson factor, with (new GM Peter) Chiarelli there, and obviously there’s some connection between Chiarelli and Babock vis-a-vis the Olympics, but it’s more probably Bob Nicholson then anybody else, I think that is huge.
“Also the fact, and it’s not just Connor McDavid, but for all the jokes we make about the Edmonton Oilers, and rightfully so because they’ve been a tire fire for eight or nine years now, the reality is as you look at that team, while they still have significant pieces to put together, goaltending, defence, this thing is a lot closer to coming together than falling apart. That is for sure.…
More good points. Babcock has worked closely with Nicholson and Chiarelli in short, two week Olympic hockey tournaments. They have won gold medals together. They like one another.
All good.
Here's my take:
I understand that Babcock has clanked champagne flutes and ice gold IPA pints with Nicholson and Chiarelli. The men have forged memories together having won gold medals in successive Olympics in Vancouver and Sochi.
I'm not so sure that this relationship is a deal closer to get Babcock to sign on the dotted line in Edmonton. The Olympic tournament is a fast paced event where Babcock and his staff of assistants were coaching an All Star team comprised of the best players in the world like Crosby, Toews, Price, Doughty, Keith, Weber, and many more. Coaching the 2014 Team Canada Olympic squad was a helluva lot easier than coaching up the 2014-15 Edmonton Oilers squad, don't you think? NHL coaches and their managers don't always get along during the grueling 82 game NHL season. Things get more intense in the playoffs, if you qualify for them. NHL coaches like Babcock want players to play and they want their managers to manage. Never the tween shall meet. I'm not downplaying Babcock's affinity for Nicholson and Chiarelli, however, I question how the three men will behave towards one another when the Oilers are mired in a miserable 15 game losing streak where they have been shutout 5 times during that streak. What then? It's all good at the Olympics, but what about when the crap hits the fan during a miserable stretch of losing games while rebuilding an NHL hockey club not named the Detroit Red Wings?
To further that point, Babcock won't have Norris Trophy candidate, future Hall of Fame D-men in his Edmonton lineup next season. He will have Andrew Ference, Darnell Nurse and four other guys who will be learning a new system and will be more prone to mistakes than they already are. Last time I checked, Nicholson and Chiarelli don't block shots, clear the crease, retrieve pucks, makes laser-like tape to tape passes to forwards on the breakout, join the rush, QB the PP, kill penalties, nor score goals.
Oh, and Carey Price and Mike Smith won't be the Edmonton goalies either.
Babcock is a pragmatist. He wants to coach the best players available to him at any given moment. He wants to coach the next Nik Lidtsrom, the next Brian Rafalski, the next Steve Yzerman, the next Pavel Datsyuk, and the next Henrik Zetterberg.
Babs is all about drilling the possession game and defense-first hockey into the hearts and minds of his players. There are no exceptions. Everybody buys in or else they get banished to hockey Siberia. Oops, Edmonton has been hockey Siberia for the past eight or nine seasons. Old habits die hard.
I submit to you that the Buffalo Sabres are the front-runner to land Babcock. Tim Murray hand selected Babcock to be his head coach of the Cincinnati Mighty Duck when both men worked in the Anaheim organization. They worked next to one another for a few years which allowed both men to get to know what makes the other tick and what makes his blood boil. Murray and Babcock are pretty much the same guy. They say what's on their mind and don't care who knows it. They shoot straight, don't pussyfoot around he subject and they solve problems. Both men LOVE to win and despise losing. They love the same brand of heavy, skilled hockey. Sources that I speak with tell me that Murray and Babcock have maintained their relationship over the years. The speak regularly and have interests away from the rink as well.
It's my opinion that the Sabres are on the pole position to lure Babcock away from the Red Wings.
Murray can guarantee upwards of $40 million -$45 million in Pegula dollars to Babcock.
Murray and Babcock can collaborate on personnel, draft, and roster matters in Buffalo as they had in their Cincinnati and Anaheim days. Its's like riding a bike. You never forget how to ride the bike in the NHL. The Sabres have the decided advantage over the Oilers in terms of the bhaving the best prospect pipeline in professional hockey. Babcock will have at his disposal young, skilled, tough, dynamic high achieving D like Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, Mark Pysyk, Jake McCabe, Jack Eichel, Samson Reinhart, Zemgus Girgensons, Marcus Foligno, Nic Deslauriers, Hudson Fasching, Nick Baptiste, Justin Bailey, J.T. Compher, Linus Ullmark, Jhonas Johansson, and Connor Hurley. The Oilers are a top-heavy forward-based team. They lack D prospects, save Nurse. They need more D and ess skilled forwards. They need goaltending in the worst way.
What's more, the Oilers need to get out of the Western Conference. If they are to achieve Chiarelli's lofty goals, they are going to have to beat up on Chicago, LA, Anaheim, Minnesota, St. Louis, Nashville, San Jose, Winnipeg, Calgary, Dallas, Arizona, and other teams on the come.
Babcock will have an easier path to the playoffs by staying out in Buffalo in the Eastern time zone. A Babcock coaches team in the East makes the playoffs quicker than a Babcock coached Western team does.
ICYMI: @TSNBobMcKenzie on Babcock's future and his top Hart Trophy contenders. Listen: http://t.co/kWzxQNZnAa
— TSN Drive (@TSNDrive) April 30, 2015
He said Babcock is meeting with his family and with Detroit Red Wings general manager Ken Holland. “I don’t think any doors have been closed. I don’t think it’s an absolute, 100 per cent slam dunk that he’s leaving the Detroit Red Wings.…
McKenzie said he had no inside information on this and was purely speculating, but he said it’s “slightly more likely… Babcock leaves Detroit than he stays there
***
Mike Babcock didn't exacty give a ringing endorsement to the Detroit Red Wings after the 2-0 Game 7 shutout loss to the Tampa Lightning on Wednesday night.
In fact, if my eyes and ears don't deceive me, he basically called out his GM Ken Holland for having an old team that is devoid of dynamic center prospects. For the past ten seasons, Babs has been spoiled by the all world play of Pavel Datsyuk and Hank Zetterberg. The duo have been everything that Babcock would hope for in Puck possession prominence, and then some.
Who will replace these living legends when they retire?
Babcock:
“We have lots of good, young players, no question about it. And we’ve got some good ones coming. But who’s going to replace Pav?… he asked.
“I don’t think “Pav… is going anywhere right away, but that’s what you’ve got to do. You’ve got to have big time players up the middle and on the back to be successful. So those are questions that our organization works toward, we’ve been drafting good, we’ve been developing good, but we’ve been winning too much. That’s the facts.…
The answer is there is no replacement for Datsyuk in the Red Wings organization right now. The Wings are never in position to draft a Crosby, Giroux, Seguin, Stamkos, Eichel or McDavid because they have made the playoffs for 24 straight seasons. They pick in the 20s in the first round every year. By the time they pick, the generational centers are already taken.
Babcock has a simple philosophy:
NHL teams need big time players up the middle and on the blue line in order to be successful.
The Red Wings are not as good a team today as it once was, said Babcock. Gone are Lidstrom, Franzen, Holmstrom, Cleary, Rafalski, Chelios, Bertuzzi, Draper and Maltby. This is the end of the innocence.
Babs has fair criticism of Holland when you look at the Grand Rapids Griffins and their center depth. Jeff Blashill's center depth is negligible at best with Kevin Porter, Tomas Nosek, Andreas Athanasiou, Andy Miele, Louis Marc Aubry, and Alden Hirschfeld. Holland has stocked the cupboards with wingers, D, and goalies in recent drafts, however, where are the dynamic centers?
Datsyuk is 36 years old and his tires are balding more so by the day. Zetterberg will be 35 in October and has battled back pain for years.
Three years after his retirement from his Hall of Fame Wings career, Holland has yet to replace Niklas Lidstrom. Holland refused to trade Anthony Mantha for Tyler Myers earlier this season. Holland stuck to his guns and refused to trade a stud forward for his next Tyler Myers. How great would Myers had looked in a Winged Wheel sweater in Game 7 in Tampa on Wednesday night? With Kronwall serving his one game suspension and Zidlicky in the press box with a concussion, Babcock was forced to dance with the guys that Holland brung him.
Myers could have been the duct tape that could have held together a compromised Detroit blue line. It wasn't meant to be.
Babcock's head coaching job will be exponentially more difficult when Pav and Hank skate to their retirement in the near future. That's why he will be looking elsewhere for his next head coaching job.
Enter the Buffalo Sabres.
On Draft Day, Tim Murray will have Jack Eichel, Samson Reinhart, Zemgus Girgensons, Tyler Ennis, Mikhail Grigorenko and Johan Larsson as his centers.
A legitimate sextet of center ice men to be sure. It will get much better.
However, Murray is aiming to improve his center depth in a big way. How do you replace Pavel Datsyuk? You don’t. He’s a first ballot Hall Of Famer, however, Tim Murray get one of the next best puck possessing two-way centers in the NHL. Murray can’t acquire Jonathon Toews, Anze Kopitar or Patrice Bergeron. However, he has already laid the ground work for trading for Ryan O’Reilly.
O'Reilly, 23, is a younger version of Datsyuk. He's a puck possession monster who plays the heavy, disciplined 3-zone game that Babcick demands from his pivots.
ROR won 54% of his draws this season and averaged 19:43 TOI. He generally plays against the opponent's top line. His offense slipped this season when the Avs inexplicably took a dump and missed the playoffs. Despite the swoon, ROR scored 17 goals and added 38 assists. He took 171 shots on goal. By comparison, Datsyuk won 54% of his draws and averaged 19:03 TOI. He scored 26 goals and added 39 assists. He landed 165 shots on goal.
Is O'Reilly the next Datsyuk? No. There is only one "Magician". However, he is pretty darn close to being Pav Version 2.0.
Tim Murray has been hot on O'Reilly's trail since the beginning of the 2014-15 season. Murray came close to making a trade for O'Reilly. Obviously nothing materialized on the ROR to Buffalo trade front. That's fine because Murray will revisit the O'Reilly discussion with the player's agent in the days and weeks to come. Murray can trade Grigorenko, Nikita Zadorov and the Isles 2015 first rounder to Colorado for ROR, who has one year left on his current deal. Like Evander Kane, O'Reilly needs a change of energy and scenery. Buffalo will welcome him with open arms.
Imagine Murray handing this center corps to Babcock:
Eichel O'Reilly Girgensons Ennis Reinhart Larsson
Move Ennis and Reinhart to the wings to make them fit snugly in the top six forwards group next season.
Voila! Babcock's concerns about the next Datsyuk go away immediately.
Babcock will meet with Holland on Friday morning to review the season that was and to discuss the future. Holland will likely slide a new contract proposal across the table. Babcock will confide in Holland that he wants to pursue the free agent market. At least that is how I envision the meeting. Holland will take umbrage with Babcock pointing out the warts and liver spots on the aging Red Wings. The Wings are old, saggy and in need of surgery. The Sabres are young, vital and hot.
Who'd ya rather, Babs?
No timetable is set now for Babcock's final decision.
Holland can't offer him Pegula millions and a Tim Murray full metal jacket of center ice men. Edmonton can't offer Babcock the war chest of weapons and cash that Buffalo can. Nor can Toronto, San Jose, or Philly.
The Babclock is ticking for Buffalo.
Edmonton can have Connor McDavid. Tim Murray will NOT be outworked nor out bid for Mike Babcock.
Murray knows that to catch a whale you need to fish with huge, tasty bait. Jack Eichel, Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen (his next Lidstrom) and and a cast of a dozen top prospects is damn good whale worthy bait.
Let's go fishing!