Every trade deadline this same question comes up.
When is it okay to lose a player for nothing?
GMs will tell you, the answer always comes down to about a dozen factors
6 Reasons to keep an expiring contract.
1. We are a Stanley Cup contender. 2. We need this player to obtain our goals this season. This means different things to different teams. In general this tends to mean, “Does keeping him help us make the playoffs and/or succeed in the playoffs?… 3. The offers aren't strong because this player is more valuable to us than he is to other teams. 4. There aren't buyers looking for this kind of player at this kind of Cap hit. 5. He is an inspirational player and can help the younger players learn how to play the right way. 6. When his money comes off the Cap next year, whoever we sign with his cap space will be essentially who we traded him, for.
6. Reasons to move an expiring contract:
1. We are not making the playoffs. 2. There is a market for him, because he is more valuable to other teams than he is to us 3. There are desperate teams inquiring about him. 4. We have tried and failed to re-sign him, or have no interest in bringing him back. 5. Our team is moving in a different direction and doesn't need him in the future. 6. This player has told us he is testing free agency.
In general, players fit very easily into these categories and it becomes quite obvious what a team should do. However, every year there are exceptions like…
1. Our team is too desperate to win now 2. This players intangibles make him VERY valuable to us right now. 3. We really don't know if we want to re-sign him are not...yet.
This year three players: Panarin, Bobrovsky, and Wayne Simmonds fit into the exception place.
On Columbus... Before judging the Jackets you need to get the context. Columbus has NEVER won a playoff series. EVER. And they are a good young team, but eventually you have to see results. And sell tickets on results...Hope is not a plan (as Peter Tessier is always quick to point out.)
So Jarmo has decided to go for it (as heavy buyers) despite not being sure if they are even going to make the playoffs. It is the perfect move because of the unique situation going on in Ohio. Both players have essentially said they aren't going to return. When a player openly says they aren’t going to return it generally means that player has a very specific place they want to go. 29 other GM's know this...so the players trade value plummits….unless you are the place they want to go….and that team can just sign them for no assets on July 1.
Philadelphia and Simmonds is a completely different situation.
On Wayne Simmonds
1. He isn't having a great year, but in contract negotiations he's been asking for much longer-termed contracts than the Flyers are willing to give him. 2. Numbers don't often tell the complete story on a player like Simmonds. 3. There have been very few offers that even come close to what the Flyers would like to get back. 4. He is a huge locker room presence, and many of his teammates see him as their mentor...And to be honest this particular Flyers locker room doesn't have a lot of mentors. 5. This Flyers team, while talented, is also one of the least penalized and least physical teams in hockey. And this identity “flies… in the face of the culture of the last 50 years of hockey in Philadelphia. These Flyers are about the furthest from the Bullies as you can get...but the sport has evolved.
On Philadelphia…
1. The Flyers are still in the playoff race. Last I checked they weren’t eliminated... I know there are websites out there that will put their chances of making the playoffs at less than 5% historically. I know there are intelligent hockey fans from other places who will VERY logically say “The Flyers aren’t making the playoffs, and even if they do they will get destroyed by Tampa.… And all that is basically undebatable. 2. Again...this is Philadelphia. This is a city that thrives on people telling them they're out of it and they are crazy for thinking something is possible. This is a city of Rocky. This is the city of….yes, you guessed it...this is the city of Gritty. 3. In Philadelphia the fans, and because of the Eagles recent success, the players, tend to think in terms much loftier. They thrive on being the underdog. They thrive on “going for it.… They thrive on the “unlikely hero…… 4. This is the city of Nick Foles and Carter Hart.
All of this needs to be considered...And yet in this modern world, where the Internet makes us all one big hockey city, it is easy to forget that Wayne Simmonds actually is a very local story. However, too often local culture will lose out to the general world perception that exists online.
But sometimes we put too much stock in the online world. Not everyone is reading hockey twitter…
There were almost 70,000 fans last night who watched the flyers pull off their best rocky impression and snap victory and hope from loss and despair in a truly Hollywood way. If you had taken an exit poll of the people leaving that stadium last night (leaving out the people wearing penguins jerseys) and asked them: “Would you rather keep Simmonds for the rest of the season and lose him for nothing or trade him now for conditional picks and a prospect?…
The final tally would be 99% in favor of risking it all and keeping him. Ok, but let’s be a little pragmatic here..
No one should feel sorry for Wayne Simmonds. The Flyers have tried to sign him, and the only thing keeping that from really happening is Wayne wants a much longer term than Philly is willing to go with. Wayne and the Flyers do have to look out for themselves here. No one can blame Wayne for wanting the security. This is a player who plays “balls to the wall… hockey and injuries are always a possibility. Who knows if one becomes career ending.
That is the very real part of this. Hockey players have fleeting careers and all their money has to be made before their lives are often 1/3rd over.
What will happen, what’s the answer?
Three possibilities as I see it:
I believe it is quite possible that Wayne and his agent look at this season he has had, look at the future in Philadelphia with Carter Hart, and some great up-and-coming young talent, and come back to the Flyers with short term deal. 1 or 2 years...This would allow Wayne to go into his next contract negotiation with a stronger case or more “obvious value… around the NHL..and still give this team the opportunity to make the playoffs this season...somehow..
OR…..
Wayne’s value is increasing. Last night’s game was a nationally televised event and any team watching the game now realizes Simmonds is more than numbers...they saw how his teammates feel about him...and a team heading into the playoffs can never have enough players like Simmonds around. Many with Cup aspirations have a very few, if any at all.
OR…
Once Mark Stone, Hayes, possibly Staal, and a few more dominos fall there will be a few teams left with nothing while their competitors have all improved. Maybe Wayne’s value turns into a legit #1 pick or a top line prospect. There is a point where even Wayne and G would have to admit it makes sense to trade #17.
But what that exact breaking point is will be up to Fletcher and I still get a sense he wants to keep Simmonds a Flyer...of course Wayne could always return on July 1...to a team made better by the fruits of his departure.
BUT…
Is also possible that Simmonds goes someplace else, has success, and decides that's where he wants to be...Because remember long ago when the flyers traded for Wayne, he was very unhappy to be leaving Los Angeles. There's no getting around that some players play the game with the same emotions as they live their lives. They're legit. They're not fake. And there is nothing fake about Wayne Simmonds….about as legit as players get. That’s why this city is so torn. They know he is a dying breed.
There isn’t anyone in the system waiting to be the guy who will take on an army for his teammates...
So what would you do if you were the Flyers? How about if you were Wayne Simmonds?
Despite what the internet comment threads will tell you, there are no right answers here.
The only thing for certain is Time is ticking….and I will be updating the rumor tracker and rumor chart intensely for the next 26 hours...tomorrow our acclaimed podcast will launch at 11 am to take you through the deadline…
Away we go! Have fun with it! It is only hockey!