just a quick note first..
I love this time of year. When I started this experiment trying to project the outcomes of all remaining games based on all these factors I had no idea how it would go, but I did believe that it would provide information that we usually don't see by looking at the current standings. And while there have been hiccups in my beta program, I really feel it has done that.
In order to try and see how this was working I have purposely looked at the ACTUAL standings each morning AFTER calculating and posting the Projected Standings. You all probably know this because of some of the errors you have pointed out...Like two days ago when the Kings had less losses projected than they currently possess...(that was a fun moment in the HB office...I don't yell curses out loud too often...)
But in doing it that way I have seen the season in a very different light...and one I feel is much more like it actually is. Instead of seeing the season as a linear race, which of course it is, I have seen it more as a blurry picture slowly coming into focus. I hope you all have enjoyed this experiment as much as I have. I figured since the rumor world slows between the deadline and the playoffs there would be time to discuss something else.. Many of you have been critical of this, and I really appreciate that. There have been tweaks suggested by you all that I have taken into account and can't wait to implement next season...
What really happened last night...
*The Maple Leafs were projected to lose in OT to Nashville, and whats's amazing is despite the fact that the end result was only the Leafs gaining a projected point and the Preds losing two points, the end result now points towards both teams landing as an 8th seed in their conferences...
*The Oilers win last night was "YUGE" and has shifted them in the Final standings to home ice versus San Jose in the all too entertaining 2/3 matchup in the Pacific...
*The Flyers win put them into the race big time in the "Actual" current standings, but in the projected standings they were projected to beat the Islanders in OT...so since the Isles didn't get that OT point they were pushed out of the playoffs in the Final. On another note, I am hearing the Flyers have landed Union player Mike Vecchione in the college free agent frenzy...
* Flyers fans may be unhappy by the fact the projections only have them winning one more game, the last game of the season versus Carolina, but that is just because they play NJ twice (who always gives them fits) and the Rangers and Jackets (who have had their number as well). So while the projections have them finishing with 84 points with every game they play until that final game of the season they could change that.
I will be back with more this afternoon...including the key games this weekend...
NEW PROJECTIONS BELOW (hit refresh if page doesn't load)
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— Michael Augello (@MikeInBuffalo) December 12, 2016