The NHL Board of Governors met today, though no word yet has been revealed as to the result of that meeting. As we know, one of the main topics is the draft, which based on all we have seen to date will be in June. All the below information, which came out has yet to be confirmed, but as the adage goes, where there is smoke, there's fire.
Chances are we’re going to have some #NHLDraft news soon.
— Vince Z. Mercogliano (@vzmercogliano) May 4, 2020
Based on reports out there and the #NHL memo, draft order would look like this, with lottery teams able to move a max of 4 spots up.#NYR looking at picks 13 (with chance to move up) and 23.
(Traded picks not listed.) pic.twitter.com/e84nHPmYX9
Right now, presuming the NHL does not finish the regular season and goes with the 24-team playoff based on top-six in each division making the post-season, the Rangers would be on the outside looking in. As I said in the intro, take that and all this with a grain of salt, until confirmed. I wrote Saturday, from the Brady Skjei deal, New York has Carolina's first round pick, which would be the lower of the two picks they own. The Hurricanes have the Maple Leafs' pick received last off-season in the Patrick Marleau deal. Right now, Toronto has a better record than Carolina, giving New York the second pick, which right now is 21. This is just the half of how the potential draft rules impact the Rangers.
The @DetroitRedWings make out like bandits in new #NHL Draft Lottery proposal. They go from 19% shot at No. 1 pick all the way up to 57%, according to odds based off league's memo, worked out by @travisyost and @IneffectiveMath.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) May 4, 2020
Story here: https://t.co/8opLxelN3g pic.twitter.com/n4SaGcHsbx
For draft nerds out there (*looks in mirror 🤓), if draft goes in early June, NHL has already said the lottery would revert to how it was last done in 2012, when only bottom five teams (top five in odds) can get the No. 1 pick. Lottery winner can’t move up more than four slots.
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) May 4, 2020
The main rule, as I also noted in Saturday's blog, is that a team will not be able to move up more than four slots. In addition, as Elliotte Friedman reported, one of the potential drivers for the draft is: "using each team’s points percentage to determine the Order of Selection. (That’s under the current playoff format, so 16 teams would be out of the lottery and 15 would be in.)" Think about this. If using the 24-team format based upon parameters laid out, New York would be seventh but the max they could move up, even if winning the lottery, is third while Detroit, with the worst record, would have a 57% chance of drafting first. But the italicized sentence above is based on using a 16-team format, which also would leave New York on the outside looking. in and possibly in the 14th slot with a max jump to 10. Good times, no?
For the piece de resistance:
According to Daly: "the possibility of moving players on active rosters will be effectively eliminated in connection with an early Draft (because of Trade Deadline and Playoff eligibility restrictions)."
— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) May 4, 2020
Part of the fun and the anticipation of the draft are trades leading up to and during. The NHL is in essence removing a huge component of draft day. From a xenophobic position, New York might have tried to move Ryan Strome or another RFA at the draft. No guarantee, but that option did exist. Now, that possibility potentially goes up in smoke. The whole point of scheduling the draft now would be to garner viewers, yet you may be removing a large portion of the draw, which would be trades. Deals would still be feasible, largely side deals or ones for future consideration, like the ones done by Las Vegas, but not to the extent we would see if the season had ended prior to the draft. I understand the rationale for conducting the draft now, but as Larry Brooks last night, until you figure out how the season will end, how can you plan a draft? In addition, don't conduct a draft until the prior season ends.
A good analysis can be found here:
That's not necessarily true. Teams are going to have a chance to negotiate on those picks. https://t.co/E8NeQ9nVM5
— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) May 4, 2020
All this ink may end up as bird cage liner quickly. But my view is that the current proposals are far from ideal. I get why having a draft now makes the sense and the rumored parameters, which currently far from favor the Blueshirts, could change quickly. Stay tuned.