“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.… – Sun Tzu
(Update: Jeff Skinner has agreed to waive his no trade clause prior to the Seattle Kraken expansion draft which means the Sabres will presumably protect forwards Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Anders Bjork and Rasmus Asplund. Available forwards for the Kraken will likely be Cody Eakin, Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons and Jeff Skinner.)
The Sabres are in the first few days of a three-week period that could determine the direction of the Buffalo Sabres franchise for the next decade. That sounds dramatic, yes, but think of the upcoming dates on the NHL calendar:
- Saturday, July 17 at 3 pm is the Expansion Draft trade freeze date, after which no trades can be made (although Seattle can make deals which will be finalized upon the lifting of the trade freeze on Thursday, July 22). - Saturday, July 17 at 5 pm each team’s expansion protection list is due to the league. - Wednesday, July 21 at 8 pm is the expansion draft. - Friday, July 23 and Saturday, July 24 is the NHL Entry Draft. - Wednesday, July 28 begins the NHL free agency period
NHL GMs are beginning to feel the pressure of the looming expansion draft on the horizon as evidenced by the inexplicable trade Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland orchestrated on Monday to land greybeard Duncan Keith and prospect Tim Soderlund in exchange for young defenseman Caleb Jones and a 3rd round pick that went to Chicago.
It is an absolutely awful trade on almost every level for the Oilers. Holland must assume Keith has some magic potion of Stanley Cup-winning intangibles that will put his team over the top because there’s really no other logical reason for the trade. There’s another layer to that terrible trade that needs to be examined, though: the expansion draft. It’s entirely possible – and even likely – that Holland felt the looming specter of the Seattle Kraken expansion draft wherein he could have lost Jones for nothing and he therefore decided to parlay the player into a putrid package for Duncan Keith.
If indeed Holland viewed the possible loss of Jones in the expansion draft as motivation to unload him in a different way to acquire an asset, then it’s a cautionary tale about letting pressure get to one’s head. All of the underlying analytics suggest that Keith’s best days are long behind him and that the Oilers are better off without him. It would almost certainly have been a better decision to let Jones be taken by Seattle in the expansion draft and then use the nearly $6m in cap space now occupied by Keith to sign almost any other defenseman in free agency to a 2-year deal.
“He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.… – Sun Tzu
The lesson to be gleaned from this possible expansion draft panic is that the worst thing a GM can do is fear losing an asset for nothing. A team is much better off simply taking their lumps and losing a fringe 2nd/3rd line forward or a second-pairing defenseman for nothing to an expansion team rather than overvaluing what they currently have. Passivity in the face of a decision like this would have served Ken Holland well and it still can serve Sabres GM Kevyn Adams well if Adams can look at his expansion roster and realize that making a move – any move – has the potential to blow up in his face. Now this obviously comes with the caveat that if the Sabres can protect Rasmus Asplund or Anders Bjork by throwing the Kraken a 5th round pick, by all means go for it.
Conversely, GMs need to realize that they can often look at their own players with rose colored glasses and overestimate what they have. If Seattle pushes, then perhaps the best plan is to simply let them make their own bed and pick a player from the Sabres’ roster.
“The wise warrior avoids the battle.… – Sun Tzu.
The Sabres need to apply this same philosophy to a potential Jack Eichel trade. Kevyn Adams has already made some unnecessary statements about “wanting players who want to be here… but now the shrewd move would be to maintain radio silence regarding a possible trade of their captain. The Sabres have an incredible amount of leverage here although they seem determined to undermine it at every turn. It’s important to remember that Jack Eichel is indeed under contract for the next 5 years with the Sabres and that management has absolutely no obligation to sell Eichel below market value.
There are indications that the Eichel camp revisited their position regarding the disk replacement although those rumors were subsequently shot down. Eilliotte Friedman in his 31 Thoughts column mentioned that he had heard just that:
There were rumours Jack Eichel backed away from the disc replacement surgery and would consider a fusion instead, but several sources refuted that. Not true. There was a time I thought a trade might happen sooner rather than later, but after the expansion draft looks more likely. Who’s in there? My guess is Anaheim, Calgary, Minnesota and Vegas, with Boston, the Rangers and possibly Los Angeles on the periphery.
Despite what Friedman said here, it’s possible that this is an indication that the Eichel camp overplayed their hand on their stated choice of treatment and that other clubs agree with the Sabres’ doctors. It is in the best interest of the Sabres for any prospective trade partner to agree with the Sabres regarding the course of action because it validates the Sabres contention that radical surgery is unnecessary. A more conventional path of treatment would almost certainly raise the trade return.
In any case, the Sabres cannot afford to feel any sort of artificial time deadline to move Eichel as that only serves to weaken their position. The Sabres should absolutely accept a deal now if it is a satisfactory offer, but if the offers are not there, then the Sabres must punt until next offseason to make a move when they can leverage Eichel’s impending 2022 no-trade clause to their advantage.
“Move not unless you see an advantage; fight not unless the position is critical.… – Sun Tzu
Many believe that Eichel’s looming no-trade clause presents an obstacle for the Sabres to avoid, although if leveraged properly, it could actually be beneficial to their position. The 2022 NHL Entry draft is widely believed to have more high-end talent than the 2021 Draft so if the Sabres sat on Eichel’s rights while he sat out the year while either undergoing surgery or refusing to play, then the Sabres could market him again one last time next summer while obtaining picks in a “better… draft. It would be a final chance for every team in the league to take a crack at Eichel before his trade clause kicks in and he can decide where he’d like to go. Offers from every corner of the league would be thrown at the Sabres at that point as teams in less desirable markets would attempt to land a superstar who otherwise may not be inclined to sign with that team.
Panic is contagious and it can lead to some terribly bad decisions. The Sabres will need to avoid that organizational panic in order to navigate the next few weeks that are so crucially important to their future without making decisions that they will come to regret in short order