It was a long offseason, the longest in 17 years for the Penguins, but we are finally to opening night. The Penguins have an entire new front office, a new stud defenseman, what appears to be a more competent bottom six, and another year with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang.
Overall, I believe the fanbase is as excited as they’ve been heading into a season. Things feel fresh and there is an appropriate amount of optimism. The Cup or bust days are behind us. Now it is about having an entertaining product to watch 82 times this season. The playoffs are still very achieivable. Past that? Your guess is as good as mine. I think making the second round would be a successful target for the season. If the right players get hot, who knows?
Some thoughts/predictions on the season.
Leading off it is worth mentioning how special it is to have another season of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. In fact, it is unprecedented
Ready for the Big Three to take the ice for their 18th season together.
— Pens Inside Scoop (@PensInsideScoop) October 10, 2023
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are set to surpass the New York Yankees’ Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada as the longest-tenured trio of teammates in NHL, MLB, NBA and NFL history. pic.twitter.com/bvcWZOw7kO
The biggest factor in a successful season will be the health of Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson. They are the corner stones of the team. Last year between the four players they combined to miss only 18 games. Those 18 games came from Kris Letang and the majority of those games missed was from his second stroke. Crosby, Malkin, and Karlsson played all 82 games. Not sure the odds are high on that happening again.
How many points should be expected from Crosby, Malkin, and Karlsson? I think a reasonable over/under for each player would be to just use their jersey number (87, 71, 65). I know Karlsson had 100 points last year. It was such an outrageously amazing season and I am tempering my expectations from being god-like to just being amazing. If Crosby hits 82 points or higher he will have had his 19th consecutive season over a point per game. Breaking a tie with… Wayne Gretzky
Jake Guentzel is trending towards being available for opening night. He’s entering a contract year. If I had to wager a guess at some point this season we are going to hear about an extension. I think it will be eight years and the AAV will start with a nine. The bad part of the contract will be close to meaningless given where the Penguins will be as a franchise so you might as well keep Sid’s favorite winger around.
I’m predicting Tristan Jarry to have a solid, if unspectacular season. Maybe something in that .910 - .914 range which is better than the league average of .904 last year. Things are a far cry from the 2015-16 season when the league average was .915.
The power play may not hit everybody’s perceived ceiling given the talent available, but it will be effective and win them games. The players will find their roles and hit a groove. They are in the feeling out stage with Karlsson. The players will stop deferring and be properly assertive.
Breakout prediction that Drew O’Connor will blow by his previous career high of five goals and get 15 or more this season. Perhaps 20 if he gets an opportunity to play in the top six when/if injuries hit. Sometimes you can see the lightbulb go off for a player and I think he’s ready to go from being a reserved depth player to one who will play more assertive and offensive minded. If the team can get this out of O’Connor it would be a huge help to the overall structuring of the lineup.
Bryan Rust will be better. He scored twenty goals last year with only two coming on the power play and this was an “off… year by all accounts. He isn’t going to get more power play time. I expect his shooting percentage to bounce back a little bit. Historically, he’s been a great shooter on the percentage front. He is a 12.3% career shooter and since becoming a regular in 2015-16 he’s only had two seasons in the single digits, that year, and in 2022-23. I think we see a return to the double digits and perhaps a 25 goal season.
Rickard Rakell will likely come up short of the 28 goals he has last year and it won’t mean he had a bad season. He scored 11 times on the power play last year. If the team runs out both Karlsson and Letang on the power play he isn’t going to see enough action to sniff the power play total again. He had 17 even-strength goals. I’m going to take the over on those. I think he gets to 20. Having Letang or Karlsson on the ice most of the game will help feed into hitting the 20 goal at 5v5.
Marcus Pettersson will continue to go about his business under the radar like has been doing since he got to Pittsburgh. Quietly effective in the Paul Martin mold. He is a glue piece and if he was traded like the prior regime wanted to there would be a sizeable hole in the top four. He's still here and he will continue to do his thing.
Reilly Smith will have a solid 20 goal season, but might not be in the top six by the end of the year. I think if the Penguins are doing well enough in the standings Dubas will load up and make a big trade and bump Smith down to the third line. Kind of like how Zucker would find himself on the 3rd line at times.
Joel Blomqvist will have a solid AHL campaign to the point where he will put himself in the conversation for some NHL action.
Most importantly, the team will be watchable. I felt like at least half of each game last year was unwatchable because the talent was so blah and uninteresting. Erik Karlsson supercharges things and a competent bottom six goes a long way in helping matters as well. Having a better attitude about the team’s process and how they go about their business frames things in a more positive light. The vibe is better. Last offseason the stress and anxiety of the team moving on from one or both of Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang was not fun at all. Having a former Flyer be at the helm dictating terms made it worse. However, we survived and here we are. Here’s to a fun season.
Thanks for reading!