First off, let's address what happened last night.
Chicago wins their 4th in a row. The Hawks sit just 4 points out of a playoff spot with 15 games remaining.
Stop it… don't even think about playoffs. Don't do it. They are just going to break your heart.
Hawks had big efforts from DeBrincat, Boqvist, Caggiula, and Crawford. It was great to see DeBrincat actually scoring again at 5-on-5, he ends up with 2 goals.
They take on lowly Detroit on Friday night. --
Now, as promised, here is a juicy one for your eyeballs.
A real point of contention this season has been the Blackhawks goaltending situation.
It's funny to use the word "situation" considering that this year with the Crawford and Lehner duo, the Hawks have had their most consistent season (and I know the season isn't over) since 2016-17 when they had Crawford/Darling.
Thanks to the unexpected addition of Robin Lehner, his play on the ice and his personality off the ice left a big impression – in a good way.
All signs were pointing to Lehner being the solution long(ish)-term and the Hawks sending Corey Crawford UFA status for the first time in his career.
Well, we all know now that this was not the case. Lehner was moved to Vegas at the deadline and Crawford has taken the net back full-time and playing miraculously over the last 10-11 games.
Was keeping Crawford the plan all along? Could the Blackhawks move a move out of left-field and opt to go in a completely new direction next year?
Before we look ahead to the potential scenarios, let's look back at what the Hawks have done historically with the goaltending position.
The Hawks have notoriously when with the old Detroit Red Wings/Chris Osgood model of not spending a large portion of the salary cap in the goaltending position. Instead, they have opted to secure the position effectively and then build a highly competitive team with a lot of depth. Or at least that's what they were doing when they were winning Cups.
Sure, they would have $5.6M tied up in a Cristobal Huet or $6M as they do currently with Crawford, but that was always offset but an effective – and cheap – backup option.
Therefore, this year with the Blackhawks tying up $11M with Crawford and Lehner, this can be viewed as an outlier to their strategy.
Here's a look at the goalies the Hawks employed since the 2016-17 season:
2016-17 – Crawford ($6M), Darling ($587,500) = $6.58M total Team Total = 50-23-9, 205 GA, 2363 SV .920 SV%, 2.49 GAA, 4 SO, .561 QS%, 8 RS (Really Bad Starts - .850 SV% and below)
2017-18 – Crawford ($6M), Forsberg ($750,000), J-F Berube ($700,000), Glass ($612,500), Delia ($767,500), Foster (NA) = $6.75M(ish) total Team Total = 33-39-10, 240 GA, 2443 SV .911 SV%, 2.93 GAA, 2 SO, .488 QS%, 15 RS 2018-19 – Crawford ($6M), Ward ($3M), Delia ($767,500) = $9M(ish) total Team Total = 36-34-12, 273 GA, 2561 SV .904 SV%, 3.33 GAA, 2 SO, .463 QS%, 12 RS
2019-20 – Crawford ($6M), Lehner ($5M), Subban ($850,000) = $11M(ish) total Team Total (66 games) = 30-28-8, 193 GA, 2142 SV .917 SV%, 2.91 GAA, 1 SO, .591 QS%, 7 RS
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As we read between the lines with the in-season Lehner negotiations, it appears the Hawks don't want to spend big dollars on a starting goalie.
Maybe they are sticking with this strategy out of necessity as Stan Bowman faces a summer of salary cap issues again – even if the cap goes up to $84-$85M.
After the Lehner trade, Bowman mentioned that they will have an NHL goalie on the roster when the puck drops in October for the 2020-21 season.
Oh man, I hope so because this team – more than ever – needs to have that position solidified. We've all seen that evidence this year, and the last 2-3 years to be honest.
Unless a huge shakeup happens this offseason, this is a Blackhawks team that might not see a big change in its roster for next season, so the need for consistent goaltending won't change.
So, what are the options? Here are the 4 as I see them. In the end, I will give you what I would do and what I think Stan Bowman will do, granted his still the GM.
Here we go: 1) Crawford and Delia – This is the tandem that should have been patrolling the net this season had Lehner not fell into the Hawks laps on July 1st.
Delia had a rough start to the season but has settled in nicely. Lankinen is out for the season so I would expect Delia to get a majority of the starts in RFD as they push for the playoffs.
One could easily replace Delia with Lankinen (if the Hawks resign him – which I think they should) but I think Delia has the edge here. The organization really likes him and thinks he's got an NHL future.
The issue with this scenario is Crawford's health and the risk the Delia is not ready or capable at the NHL level.
The bonus, I think Crawford would accept a deal in the 2 year / $4M AAV range, so you only have $5M total in spend on your goalies.
2) Crawford and "cheaper" veteran backup via UFA (ie. Elliott, Talbot, Dell) – If Crawford would sign a deal in the $4M AAV range and Stan can snag any of those 3 veteran goalies above for $2M(ish), that might be the smarter move.
You would still have Delia and possibly Lankinen or Subban in the AHL as depth when needed.
The question is, would Elliott, Talbot or Dell be a big upgrade over a guy like Collin Delia?
3) No Crawford and a left-field move like signing Greiss or Holtby – The Hawks opt to not re-sign Crawford and go another direction.
If the Hawks didn't want to pay Lehner in the $7-$8M range, I can't see them going out and signing Braden Holtby to a similar amount.
Thomas Greiss is 34 so I'm not sure that's a move for the future either.
And before everyone says, let's just sign Jacob Markstrom, I'm going out on a limb here and saying there's no way he ever makes it to UFA. Vancouver will pay him and he'll be there long-term.
As you can tell, this is not a route that I would go, nor one that I think Stan would go.
4) Full insanity/Columbus-mode with a tandem of Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia… OR a young stud like Ilya Sorokin – Oh boy, I can only imagine if the Hawks go this route. The amount of outrage on the Twitters and message board would be rich.
This team wouldn't survive if they went the route of the Columbus Blue Jackets who went into this season with Korpisalo and Merzlikins as their tandem. It's not as much as I don't think Delia or Subban are at their level, it's the Hawks system is awful and give up more shots than anyone in the league.
On the other hand, if the Hawks were to acquire KHL stud, Sorokin, maybe he would be up for the task.
I honestly don't believe it will happen. Uncle Lou wouldn't let that happen and Varlamov and Sorokin will be the duo next year on Long Island.
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What would I do?
Well, I know what I would have done and that was sign Lehner and have Delia has the backup but we know that's not happening anymore.
I would also be on board with a young talent like Sorokin coming in but I don't see that happening either. So, as it stands right now and looking ahead to who's available this summer, here's where my head is at as of March 6th, 2020.
I would sign Crawford if he would accept a 1-year or 2-year deal in the $4M range because there is not much else out there.
I would then re-up Lankinen and Subban and have them both battle out Delia for the backup.
My rationale for this is that even though Matt Tompkins and Alexis Gravel will be in the minors, you can never have enough goaltending depth and you can always move one if it gets too crowded in a depth move.
Having this depth is especially vital when you have the concussion history of Corey Crawford.
Second, it's Collin Delia's time. He will be 26 years old when the Hawks head into training camp. They have committed $3M to the guy. He's proven himself as a guy who can be a difference-maker in the AHL at times, so let him come up and learn under Corey.
My only fear is that Colliton (if he's still in CHI) overplays Crawford when – at his age – should be working split duty as he did with Lehner all year. Could Delia be counted on for 30-40 games? It's a risk but I would be willing to take it for a couple of reasons.
First, if the Hawks couldn't find success with 2 goaltenders playing at an elite level this season, then there are other holes on this team (which we all know) and that depth needs to be addressed with the usable cap space. That would be a big caveat to me going with this option that the Hawks must get faster, deeper and acquire pieces to make them a better all-around defensive team. When this happens, the Hawks won't have to rely as much on goaltending because they won't be facing 35+ shots per game.
Secondly – and some of you might not like this next part – but the Blackhawks aren't winning the Stanley Cup next year. If you're not going to see what you have in Delia now, then deal him. I like him and think he could be a solid NHLer. Will he be an elite starter? Not sure, but at 26 years old, he's ready and you don't have any other options (maybe Lankinen) in the minors so continue with this "re-tool" and play the guy. I'm not saying it's a throw-away season, but maybe they have something special in Delia and at $1M per year, that'd be a steal if the guy comes in and plays well with Crawford.
Is my scenario above the most ideal? No. But with this team not opting to go with a younger and really talented goalie in Lehner, I look around and this appears to be the best solution I can see.
Now, what do I think the Blackhawks will do?
I think they re-sign Crawford and a cheap veteran backup like an Aaron Dell and that might be the safer route to go but they need to address other areas of the team to at least compete for the playoffs again.
What would YOU do if you were the Hawks?
See ya out there!
TC