There was a lot that happened over the past four days with the Senators, and I wanted to recap everything now that we've had a second to breathe. So let’s go in order, starting with the Duchene trade.
Matt Duchene and Julius Bergman for Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 2019 1st rounder, conditional 2020 first rounder
This trade sort of got lost in the shuffle, as although Duchene has been elite this season with 60 points in 52 games, fans weren’t nearly as attached to him since he was only in Ottawa for a year and a half. I think when comparing this trade to other ones at the deadline, the Senators did decently well here.
I had always been prepared to lose Duchene, and in the best case scenario where he re-signs with Columbus, this is a real haul. I’m bearish on their chances to re-sign him, but even if they don’t, Ottawa will still get a pick probably somewhere in the 14-22 range this June, a wildcard prospect, and a tantalizing prospect with a higher ceiling as well. He would have fetched much more as a fully signed player, but I thought the Senators did well given the situation.
Ryan Dzingel, 2019 7th rounder for Anthony Duclair, 2020 2nd rounder, 2021 2nd rounder It would’ve been nice to receive a 1st round pick just because it sounds nicer, but two 2nd rounders are honestly better because after the top 10-15, the value of draft picks really drops off, and it’s better to have quantity than quality after that anyway. Giving up the 7th as well isn’t ideal, but getting back-to-back (most likely) top-50 picks isn’t bad at all. Furthermore, Duclair hasn’t been great the past few seasons, but he’s still just 23 and an interesting reclamation project who is actually an RFA in the summer.
With many spots open on the roster, he doesn’t need to do a whole lot to justify a contract for next season. I also get the sense that this will be a career year for Dzingel, and perhaps this was the highest his value was ever going to be. I loved watching him play, but I don’t think he will be a consistent 60 point player, but more of a 40-45 point player. That’s still valuable as a top-nine winger with speed, but he isn’t as essential as Stone and Duchene.
Patrick Sieloff for Brian Gibbons
Obviously this was just an AHL move, although it looks like Gibbons will be up in Ottawa just so that some of the young players can stay in Belleville for their playoff push. Sieloff wasn’t even a productive AHL defenseman, so this wasn’t a big loss at all. Furthermore, Sieloff had been in the organization for three seasons despite being the player that concussed Clarke MacArthur in September of 2016.
I think all Senators fans are more than okay with seeing Sieloff leave the organization.
Mark Stone for Erik Brannstrom, Oscar Lindberg, 2020 2nd rounder
If you don’t know who Brannstrom is, then seeing no first rounder in this deal is puzzling. It’s definitely less than ideal that they could not get Vegas to include that in addition to Brannstrom, but I’d much rather have a prospect of his calibre and a 2nd round pick than a lesser prospect and a 1st round pick. I think Brannstrom is going to be a very good defenseman in the NHL as soon as next season, as he has been quite good in the AHL as a 19-year-old.
This deal hinges on whether Brannstrom can turn into a quality player or not because Lindberg is a bottom-six player, and who knows what the 2nd rounder will turn into. I like that Ottawa was able to get a legitimate top prospect though, especially a defenseman, an area where they needed one more high upside player. Don’t get me wrong, losing Stone is catastrophic and should be talked about for years, but it was either this return, a worse return from a different team, or losing him for nothing. Considering the alternatives, it's hard to be too upset. It will just take a long time for fans to heal.
Moves that were not made: Cody Ceci, Mikkel Boedker, Magnus Paajarvi, Zack Smith
Weeks before the deadline, there was rampant talk about Ceci being someone likely to be moved. Even his most ardent supporters have soured on him, although not his biggest fan: the general manager. In Dorion’s interview with TSN 1200 yesterday, he mentioned how Ceci has been in a tough situation this season because he has played too many tough minutes and Dorion “only has good things to say… about him. I’m not sure if any of that is a bluff, but considering he has played 423 games with the team, I have no reason to believe why it would be. It’s honestly just inexcusable to not move him for anything of value at this point, because he provides negative value while he is on the ice, yet other GMs appear willing to give up decent assets. Even if it was just a 2nd or 3rd round pick, losing Ceci would be an addition by subtraction.
Furthermore, it was a bit disappointing to see that none of Boedker, Paajarvi, or Smith could be moved. Boedker (along with Ceci) didn’t play on Sunday, and it looked like Dorion might’ve had a trade lined up before the deadline, but that was more precautionary than anything. Paajarvi is the only player of these four who is a UFA at the end of the season, so I’m assuming that Dorion will want the other three included as veterans part of the rebuild. Still though, it’s possible to trade these players and bring in cheap veterans via free agency as well.
Overall thoughts
If Melnyk wasn’t the owner of the Senators and Ottawa didn’t have a history of its best players leaving on bad terms, I honestly feel like fans would be generally happy with how this deadline turned out. But we don’t exist in that reality, and it’s difficult to be excited about the future when fans just expect this next crop of players to be traded in their prime when they are due for a massive pay raise. The only hope is that Melnyk sells at some point in the next five years, or else I genuinely don’t know how they will be able to be a cup contender.
Having said that, Dorion did do decently well with the trades for the big three UFAs. He was able to acquire a blue-chip prospect in Brannstrom, 4-5 high picks, two other solid prospects, and a young flyer in Duclair. None of those returns are equal in value to what those players brought (besides maybe Dzingel), but this was a tough situation to be in due to their impending UFA statuses. These trades could have been a lot worse, and I was definitely expecting it to be worse. I’m very disappointed that Ceci was not moved due to the interest around the league, but there is still a chance he can be traded in the summer before he signs a contract.
I was going to try to rank these deals, but honestly they are all tied for me. The Duchene return has the potential to be very good with a possible extra pick, Dzingel got three decent assets, and Stone got an elite prospect, so none of them really seem worse than the other, at least in terms of what I expected each player to be traded for.
The underlying issues of why these trades had to be made are still infuriating to the fanbase, but the actual trades made will help with the rebuild. I just hope these players part of the rebuild will be able to get properly paid when the time comes.